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    Title: 新南向政策國家貪腐風險評估分析
    Corruption risk analysis of New Southbound Policy countries
    Authors: 張芳瑜
    Chang, Fang-Yu
    Contributors: 廖興中
    Liao, Hsin-Chung
    張芳瑜
    Chang, Fang-Yu
    Keywords: 公共政策
    貪腐控制
    清廉印象指數
    新南向政策
    Public policy
    Corruption Control
    Corruption Perceptions Index
    New Southbound Policy
    Date: 2024
    Issue Date: 2024-08-05 14:24:04 (UTC+8)
    Abstract:   近幾年,政府提出了新南向政策,旨在減少對單一市場的依賴,期望通過擴大與其它亞洲國家的雙邊貿易與交流,提升台灣的貿易表現。然而,由於全球化的影響,貪腐問題成為對外投資中必須考量的因素之一。基此,本研究旨在分析新南向國家在政治與經濟領域中的貪腐控制表現,並透過追蹤資料分析,找出影響台灣投資金額和全球投資流入金額的因素。此外,將使用集群分析探討台灣和全球是否存在高貪腐高投資的國家現象。
      根據研究分析結果,大多數新南向國家仍然面臨貪腐清廉指數表現不佳的問題。這些國家雖然在政治方面變項的表現相對較差,但在經濟相關變項中表現較好。追蹤資料分析結果顯示,台灣投資金額與全球外資流入金額在貪腐、政府支出、貿易自由以及GDP等變項中呈現正向顯著影響;而在民主自由、政治穩定、法治、財政健康等變項中則呈現負向顯著影響。值得注意的是,投資自由對台灣投資金額呈現負向顯著影響,但對全球流入金額則呈現正向顯著影響。此外,集群分析結果顯示,無論是台灣還是全球,投資者都偏好貪腐程度較低的國家。
      In recent years, the government has introduced the New Southbound Policy to reduce dependence on a single market, aiming to enhance Taiwan's trade performance by expanding bilateral trade and interactions with other Asian countries. However, due to the impact of globalization, corruption has become a crucial factor to consider in foreign investments. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the corruption control performance of New Southbound countries in the political and economic fields. By using panel data analysis, the study identifies the factors affecting Taiwan's investment amounts and global investment inflows. Additionally, cluster analysis is employed to explore whether there are countries with high corruption and high investment both in Taiwan and globally.
      According to the research results, most New Southbound countries still face significant issues with poor corruption perceptions. While these countries perform relatively poorly in political variables, they show better performance in economic variables. The panel data analysis results indicate that Taiwan's investment amounts and global investment inflows are positively and significantly influenced by variables such as corruption, government expenditure, trade freedom, and GDP. In contrast, variables such as democracy, political stability, rule of law, and fiscal health have a negative significant impact. Notably, investment freedom has a negative significant impact on Taiwan's investment amounts but a positive significant impact on global investment inflows. Furthermore, cluster analysis results show that investors, whether from Taiwan or globally, prefer countries with lower levels of corruption.
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