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    题名: 以系統動力學探討碳稅對住宅價格之影響—以臺北市為例
    Exploring the Impact of Carbon Taxes on Housing Prices by System Dynamics— A Case Study of Taipei City
    作者: 葉展華
    Yeh, Chang-Hua
    贡献者: 林左裕
    葉展華
    Yeh, Chang-Hua
    关键词: 碳稅
    住宅價格
    系統動力學
    政策模擬
    Carbon Tax
    Housing Prices
    System Dynamics
    Policy Simulation
    日期: 2024
    上传时间: 2024-08-05 14:16:42 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 因應全球氣候變遷，減少溫室氣體排放量，並避免未來因碳關稅而需承擔高額成本，臺灣預計於2025年開始收取首波碳稅。為達到有效碳稅稅率同時避免高過稅率造成經濟衝擊，本研究透過系統動力學模型，綜合考慮臺北市住宅市場之供給、需求以及金融經濟等因素，模擬不同稅率及稅率累進模式下，碳稅對臺北市住宅價格可能造成之影響。
    透過固定稅率模擬可得知，碳稅稅率與住宅價格增長趨勢間呈正相關係，且房價增長幅度隨時間推移越發顯著，但不同稅率間對住宅價格漲幅之影響並非呈線性關係，而是呈現出基於成本轉嫁理論的些微S形曲線態勢。藉由三種累進稅率模式以及本研究設定之碳稅稅率模後擬，本研究建議在設計碳稅稅率時，可採用後期加速之累進稅率模式，除了能夠達到國際認可之稅率外，亦不至於過度衝擊住宅價格。
    經過本研究模擬指出，碳稅並非導致臺北市住宅價格上漲之主要因素。我國碳稅稅率尚未確立，本研究建議政府在制定碳稅政策時，應詳細規劃稅率走勢，並輔以完善之配套措施，以確保政策能順利推動並提升社會福祉。
    To cope with global climate change, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and to avoid the high cost of carbon tariffs in the future, Taiwan is expected to launch the carbon tax in 2025. In order to achieve an effective carbon tax rate while avoiding the economic impacts caused by an excessive tax rate, this study employs the System Dynamics model to simulates the possible impacts of carbon tax on housing prices in Taipei under different tax rates and progressive tax rate models. The supply, demand, financial and economic factors of the housing market in Taipei City are also considered.
    Results of the Fixed-rate simulation show that there is a positive relationship between carbon tax rates and the trend in housing price growth, and that the increase in housing price growth has become more significant over time. However, the effect of different tax rates on housing price increases is not linear. It shows a slight S-shaped curve based on the cost pass-through theory. Based on the three different progressive tax rate models and the simulation of carbon tax rate in this study, the late accelerated indicator progressive tax model can be suggested and used in the carbon tax rate design. Therefore, the tax rate can be internationally recognized, and the housing price will not be impacted excessively.
    The simulation of this study shows that the carbon tax is not the main factor leading to the increase of housing prices in Taipei City. Since the carbon tax rate in Taiwan has not yet been established, this study suggests that when a carbon tax policy is developed, the government should conduct detailed planning for the trend of the tax rate and supplement it with comprehensive supporting measure to ensure the smooth implementation of the policy and to enhance the welfare of the society.
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