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| Title: | 以空間資訊技術建立電網脆弱度自然因素風險評估模型之研究
Research on Establishing Power Grid Vulnerability Model |
| Authors: | 許又婕
Hsu, Yu-Chieh |
| Contributors: | 甯方璽
許又婕
Hsu, Yu-Chieh |
| Keywords: | 電網脆弱度
永續發展目標
地理資訊系統
隨機森林
Power Grid Vulnerability
Sustainable Development Goals
Geographic Information System
Random Forest |
| Date: | 2024 |
| Issue Date: | 2024-08-05 14:14:45 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本研究以空間資訊技術建立電網脆弱度自然因素風險評估模型，評估電力系統對抗自然災害的能力。由於氣候變遷與極端天氣事件頻繁發生，對電網構成重大威脅，因此相關單位需要有效的風險評估方法，以提前規劃與預防災害的發生。本研究綜合運用地理資訊系統（GIS），結合自然災害因子和電網結構資訊，進行電網脆弱度分析與風險評估。
模型評估首先利用空間分析技術評估電網設施的脆弱性，考量因素包括斷層、地質敏感帶、淹水潛勢區和山崩等自然因子。並整合各類自然因素風險，計算出脆弱度指數，繪製詳細的脆弱度地圖。
研究結果顯示，隨機森林算法能夠有效地辨識影響電網脆弱度的主要自然因子，並計算其權重。本模型能夠劃分出脆弱高的區域，為相關單位提供參考，以便規劃分散式電網、提升防災減災能力，並實現聯合國永續發展目標（SDGs）中的第7項「確保所有的人都可取得負擔得起、可靠、永續及現代的能源」（Affordable and Clean Energy），改變現有集中式電網面對極端氣候的不穩定性，並提高再生能源電網的比例。
This study employs spatial information technology to establish a natural factor risk assessment model for power grid vulnerability, evaluating the ability of power systems to withstand natural disasters. Due to the frequent occurrence of climate change and extreme weather events, which pose significant threats to power grids, relevant authorities require effective risk assessment methods to plan and prevent disasters in advance. This study comprehensively utilizes Geographic Information System (GIS) technology, integrating natural disaster factors and power grid structure information to analyze power grid vulnerability and assess risk.
First, the model assessment uses spatial analysis techniques to evaluate the vulnerability of power grid facilities, considering factors such as faults, geologically sensitive area, potential debris flow torrent, and landslides. The vulnerability index is calculated by analyzing natural factors, resulting in a vulnerability map.
The results indicate that the random forest algorithm can effectively identify the major natural factors influencing power grid vulnerability and calculate their weights. This model can delineate high-vulnerability areas, providing reference for the authorities to plan distributed power grids, enhance disaster prevention and risk mitigation, and achieve Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG7) calls for “affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all”. It will improve the stability of centralized power grids in the face of extreme weather and increase the proportion of renewable energy grids. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
地政學系
111257001 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111257001 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [地政學系] 學位論文
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