政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/152679

政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/152679

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政大機構典藏 > 社會科學學院 > 應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程 (IMES) > 學位論文 > Item 140.119/152679

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题名:	評估聖嬰-南方振盪(ENSO) 對泰國南部季節性及非季節性作物產量的影響 Evaluating the Impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Seasonal and Non-Seasonal Crop Yields in Southern Thailand
作者:	高妍儒 Komala, Yadarun
贡献者:	范噶色 Stephan Van Gasselt 高妍儒 Yadarun Komala
关键词:	ENSO（聖嬰-南方振盪現象) 氣候變異性農業作物產量泰國南部 ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) Climate Variability Agriculture Crop Yields Southern Thailand
日期:	2024
上传时间:	2024-08-05 13:29:59 (UTC+8)
摘要:	這篇論文研究了在過去30年中，聖嬰-南方振盪現象（ENSO）相關的氣候變異性與泰國南部東、西海岸農業生產力之間的關係，重點關注榴蓮、山竹、椰子和油棕等主要作物。通過使用相關分析和穩健線性回歸模型等方法，本研究考察了ENSO階段和氣候波動如何影響該地區的作物產量。初步分析顯示，不同作物或海岸線之間的ENSO與產量波動關聯性不一致。觀察到氣候變數與作物產量之間存在弱至中度的相關性，特別是在二月和三月的關鍵生長期內與降雨量存在顯著的負相關關係。回歸分析提供了關於不同作物如何對氣候變化和ENSO階段做出反應的重要見解，特別是在解釋作物產量異常變異性超過50%的模型中。在東海岸，榴槤產量異常在厄爾尼諾條件（較高MEI）下降約16.37%，而油棕產量對溫度增加表現出韌性，但與ENSO有顯著交互作用。在西海岸，榴槤產量在厄爾尼諾事件中下降約14.51%。研究結果強調了ENSO對東西海岸榴槤生產力的顯著負面影響，雲量在產量變異中的作用，以及厄爾尼諾和拉尼娜的不對稱影響。此外，本研究指出，與西海岸相比，ENSO對東海岸的影響更為顯著，通過氣候敏感性進行調解。本研究有助於理解區域氣候對農業的影響，並為南泰國的適應策略提供參考。 This thesis investigates the relationships between ENSO-related climate variability and agricultural productivity in the east and west coasts of Southern Thailand over a 30-year period, focusing on key crops: durian, mangosteen, coconut, and oil-palm. Using methodologies such as correlation analysis and robust linear regression models, the study examines how ENSO phases and climate fluctuations influence crop yields across the region. Initial analyses revealed inconsistent ENSO linkage with yield fluctuations across different crops or coastlines. Weak to moderate correlations with climate variables were observed, with significant negative relationships with rainfall during the critical growth periods of February and March. The regression analyses provided significant insights into how different crops respond to climatic changes and ENSO phases, particularly in models explaining more than 50% of the variability in crop yield anomalies. In the east coast, durian yield anomalies decreased by approximately 16.37% during El Niño conditions (higher MEI), while oil-palm yields showed resilience to temperature increases but significant interactions with ENSO. On the west coast, durian yields decreased by about 14.51% during El Niño events. The findings underscore the significant negative impact of ENSO on durian productivity across both coasts, the role of cloud coverage in yield variability, and the asymmetric effects of El Niño and La Niña. Moreover, the study highlights that ENSO impacts on the east coast are more prominent, mediated through climate sensitivity, compared to the west coast. This study contributes to understanding regional climate impacts on agriculture and informs adaptation strategies for Southern Thailand.
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描述:	碩士國立政治大學應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES) 111266021
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