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Title:	克里米亞衝突後對俄羅斯經濟制裁的影響評估：基於合成控制法的研究 Estimating the Effect of Post-Crimea Sanctions on Russia: A Synthetic Control Approach
Authors:	倪采靖 Ni, Tsai-Ching
Contributors:	楊子霆 Yang, Tzu-Ting 倪采靖 Ni, Tsai-Ching
Keywords:	經濟制裁克里米亞衝突合成控制方法俄羅斯經濟國際關係 Economic sanctions Crimea conflict Synthetic Control Method Russian economy International relations
Date:	2024
Issue Date:	2024-08-05 13:28:39 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	本研究透過合成控制方法（SCM）來探究克里米亞衝突後對俄羅斯實施的經濟制裁對其經濟產生的具體影響。本文著重於2009至2019年的經濟數據，通過對多個控制國家加權以模擬一個未受制裁的俄羅斯，再與俄羅斯的實際經濟表現進行比較。同時，通過分析俄羅斯GDP與其組成細項的變化，分解並量化了制裁對俄羅斯經濟的影響。研究發現，從2014年第四季度到2016年第四季度，在與合成俄羅斯對比之下，俄羅斯的GDP累計增長率顯著下降。2016年第二季度，GDP累計增長率的損失達到11個百分點。同樣地，消費累計增長率到2017年第二季度時已損失32個百分點。平滑後的進口累計增長率也展示了顯著的差異，2016年平均下降了50個百分點，突顯出巨大的差距。結果顯示，制裁期間俄羅斯經歷了經濟衰退，並且也因此改變了俄羅斯不同生產部門的比重，進一步證實了國際經濟制裁在經濟層面上的有效性。 This study employs the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) to estimate the causal effects of economic sanctions on Russia's economy due to the Crimea conflict. This paper focuses on economic data from 2009 to 2019, using a weighted combination of control countries to simulate an unsanctioned Russia and compare it against the actual economic performance of Russia. By analyzing changes in Russia's GDP and its components, the study decomposes and quantifies the effects of the sanctions on the Russian economy. The findings indicate that from 2014Q4 to 2016Q4, Russia's cumulative GDP growth rate significantly declined compared to synthetic Russia, with a loss reaching 11 percentage points by 2016Q2. Similarly, the cumulative consumption growth rate had lost 32 percentage points by 2017Q2. The smoothed cumulative growth rate of imports also showed significant differences, with an average decline of 50 percentage points in 2016, highlighting a substantial disparity. The results demonstrate that Russia experienced an economic recession during the sanctions period and altered the proportions of different production sectors, further affirming the effectiveness of international economic sanctions at the economic level.
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Description:	碩士國立政治大學應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES) 110266004
Source URI:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110266004
Data Type:	thesis
Appears in Collections:	[International Master`s Program of Applied Economics and Social Development] Theses

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