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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/152389


    Title: 國際貿易與邦交關係
    International trade and diplomatic relations
    Authors: 黃筠絜
    Huang, Yun-Jie
    Contributors: 蔡致遠
    Tsai, Chi-Yuan
    黃筠絜
    Huang, Yun-Jie
    Keywords: 貿易引力模型
    邦交關係
    外交關係
    Gravity model
    Diplomatic ties
    Diplomatic relations
    Date: 2024
    Issue Date: 2024-08-05 11:55:25 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本研究使用2000年至2022年臺灣及中國的進出口數據，以貿易引力模型探討邦交關係對臺灣及中國進出口貿易之影響。研究發現，當他國與臺灣斷交時，以臺灣的角度而言，將不利於臺灣對其的出口額以及出口占比（出口國出口至一國之出口額占出口國該年度總出口之比例）；然而，以他國的角度而言，其對臺灣的出口額並無顯著變化，但卻導致較低的出口占比。在中國方面，當他國與臺灣斷交，中國對該國的出口額和出口占比皆增加，惟該國對中國的出口額及出口占比皆無顯著變化。此外，本研究也進一步探討實質外交關係對貿易的影響，結果顯示，臺灣總統與副總統的出訪次數和駐外外交機構密度分別對臺灣出口及進口貿易有正面影響，但對中國的進出口貿易並無影響。研究結果表示，維持邦交與實質外交關係對臺灣之雙邊貿易具重要性，而其他國家在選擇與臺灣斷交後，中國對其出口可能增加，但其未必能提升對中國的出口。
    This study employs Taiwan and China's import and export data from 2000 to 2022 to investigate the implications of diplomatic relations on bilateral trade flows between Taiwan, China, and their respective trade partners, employing the gravity model. The findings unveil that when a country severs formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan, from Taiwan's perspective, it adversely impacts Taiwan's export volumes to that country, as well as its export share (defined as a country's exports to a specific trade partner as a proportion of its total exports in a given year). However, from the perspective of the severing country, while the absolute value of its exports to Taiwan exhibits no statistically significant change, it experiences a diminished export share to Taiwan. Conversely, when a country terminates diplomatic relations with Taiwan, China's export volumes to that country and its corresponding export share both experience a significant increase, although the severing country's exports to China and its export share to China remain statistically unaffected. Moreover, this study further scrutinizes the influence of substantive diplomatic relations on trade flows, and the results indicate that the frequency of overseas visits by Taiwan's president and vice president, as well as the density of Taiwan's overseas diplomatic institutions, exert a positive impact on Taiwan's export and import volumes, respectively. However, these factors do not yield statistically significant effects on China's trade flows. The findings suggest that maintaining formal diplomatic ties and substantive diplomatic relations is of paramount importance for Taiwan's bilateral trade, while other countries that sever ties with Taiwan may experience an increase in China's exports to them, but not necessarily a concomitant enhancement in their exports to China.
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    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    國際經營與貿易學系
    111351003
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111351003
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[Department of International Business] Theses

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