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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/152184


    Title: 誰該接受懲罰？中央政府執政績效對於地方選舉的影響
    Who Should Be Blamed? the Impact of National Government Performance on Local Elections
    Authors: 俞振華
    Contributors: 選研中心
    Keywords: 次級選舉;地方選舉;中央政府執政績效;公民複決式投票;課責性
    second-order election;local election;national government performance;referendum voting model;accountability
    Date: 2022-03
    Issue Date: 2024-07-01 15:30:35 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 過去的經驗研究顯示，在兩次全國性大選之間的次級選舉（second-order election），選民通常會用選票來懲罰或獎勵執政黨的表現(Tufte 1975; Erikson 1988)。而這種「課責」的思維特別強調懲罰層面，即就算在地方選舉，選民仍透過不支持執政黨來表達對政府施政績效的不滿。台灣過去的次級選舉也往往出現這樣的情形，不論是民進黨還是國民黨執政，介於兩次總統大選間的各類「期中」選舉（包括縣市長選舉及立法委員補選），執政黨通常都是落敗的一方。本研究旨在分析中央政府執政績效對於地方選舉的影響究竟有多大？由於過去本土相關研究都只針對單次選舉資料進行分析，所發現之「公民複決投票模式」難以普遍化。本研究透過整合過去「台灣選舉與民主化調查計畫」當中所有地方選舉選後調查資料（計19筆），從選民的角度，探討中央政府的施政表現，是否影響執政黨縣市長候選人的選情？如果答案是肯定的，則是在什麼樣的情況下會產生影響？又可能影響哪些選民的投票行為？如果沒有，則主要是哪些變數影響選民在縣市長選舉中的投票行為？這部份包括檢驗兩項選舉情境假設，即「選舉類型」及「選舉規模」假設是否成立。本研究還將利用總體投開票資料，探討執政黨在過去三次（2010、2014、及2018）地方選舉中敗選是因為動員不力還是選民轉向？
    Empirical studies suggest that voters usually punish or reward the performance of the national government in what are viewed as second-order elections between two major elections (Tufte, 1975; Erikson, 1988). Taiwan’s past experience also corresponds with such scholarly findings so that the ruling party needs to be accountable even in local elections. As Taiwan’s local elections always take place between the two major national elections (i.e., presidential elections), regardless of whether it is the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) or Kuomintang (KMT), the ruling party of the central government in Taiwan almost always loses in such “midterm exams”.As past related studies on Taiwan almost always use any specific election to test the so-called “referendum voting model”, the findings are hard to be generalized. The main purpose of this paper is to use multiple waves of survey data of Taiwan’s Elections and Democratization Studies (TEDS) to fully uncover the extent to which national factors affect the outcome of local elections. Specifically, we explore whether the performance of the central government overrides the importance of local politics in local elections. If so, under what conditions do national factors play significant roles in local elections? If not, what might the key variables that determine local election outcomes be? Additionally, this project also utilizes aggregate level voting records to explore whether the “mobilization theory” or “swing voter theory” can better explain the three losses of the ruling parties in the past midterm local elections (2010, 2014, and 2018).
    Relation: 科技部, MOST109-2410-H004-050-SSS, 109.08-110.07
    Data Type: report
    Appears in Collections:[選舉研究中心] 國科會研究計畫

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