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| Title: | 政策不確定性對房市之影響：文字探勘法
Application of Text Mining: the Impact of Policy Uncertainty on the Real Estate Market |
| Authors: | 嚴揚宇
Yan, Yang-Yu |
| Contributors: | 陳明吉
嚴揚宇
Yan, Yang-Yu |
| Keywords: | 房市
政策不確定性
不確定性指數
文字探勘
中介效應
Housing market
Policy uncertainty
Uncertainty index
Text mining
Mediation effect |
| Date: | 2024 |
| Issue Date: | 2024-07-01 12:40:58 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 在不斷更動的政策實施背景下，造成的政策不確定性可能會導致大眾難以判斷當前以及未來的市場形勢。政府可以透過各種政策工具影響房市，包括不動產政策、貨幣政策以及財政政策等，這些政策可以根據政府的目的來影響房市的發展，但當政策方向不明確或頻繁變動時，大眾對市場的預期持保留態度，會對市場參與者的決策產生影響。大眾非常依賴新聞媒體作為資訊來源和判斷參考，這使得購屋者的交易行為容易受到新聞資訊的影響，進而影響房市的變化。因此，本研究構建以新聞內容為基準的台灣政策不確定性指數，並進一步分類為不同面向的政策不確定性指數，以探討不同面向的政策不確定性對房市之影響，同時還分析不同面向的政策不確定性對房價之傳導機制。
本研究透過多元線性迴歸分析探討了不同政策不確定性對房市的影響，發現經濟政策和不動產政策的不確定性會對房價造成負面影響，而貨幣政策不確定性及滯後的財政政策不確定性則對房屋交易量有正面效果。此外，不動產政策的不確定性會增加議價空間，但隨時間推移，不動產政策不確定性及貨幣政策不確定性會對議價空間產生負面影響。同時中介效應分析顯示，不動產政策、貨幣政策以及財政政策的不確定性分別透過影響家戶可支配所得、放款利率以及家戶可支配所得間接影
響房價。
Against the backdrop of constantly changing policy implementation, the resulting policy uncertainty may make it difficult for the public to assess the current and future
market conditions. The government can influence the housing market through various policy tools, including real estate policies, monetary policies, and fiscal policies. These
policies can impact the development of the housing market based on the government's objectives. When the policy direction is unclear or changes frequently, the public tends to adopt a reserved attitude towards the market, which can influence the decisions of market participants. The public heavily relies on news media as a source of information and
reference for judgment, which easily influences the transaction behavior of homebuyers. This, in turn, affects changes in the housing market. Therefore, this study constructs a Taiwan Policy Uncertainty Index based on news content. It further categorizes the index into different aspects of policy uncertainty to explore the impact of these aspects on the housing market. Furthermore, it examines the transmission mechanisms of policy uncertainty on housing prices across various dimensions.
This study utilized multiple linear regression analysis to investigate the influence of various policy uncertainties on the housing market. It was found that uncertainties in
economic policy and real estate policy have a negative impact on housing prices, while uncertainties in monetary policy and delayed uncertainties in fiscal policy have a positive effect on housing transaction volume. In addition, uncertainty in real estate policy increases negotiating flexibility. However, over time, uncertainties in real estate policy and monetary policy will have a detrimental effect on negotiating flexibility. Simultaneously, mediation
effect analysis reveals that uncertainty in real estate policy, monetary policy, and fiscal policy indirectly affects housing prices through their respective impacts on household disposable income, loan interest rates, and household disposable income. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
財務管理學系
111357041 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111357041 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [財務管理學系] 學位論文
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