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| Title: | 新冠肺炎期間房市變化之分析
The Analysis of Changes in Real Estate Market during the COVID-19 pandemic |
| Authors: | 蘇湲庭
Su, Yuan-Ting |
| Contributors: | 陳明吉
Chen, Ming-Chi
蘇湲庭
Su, Yuan-Ting |
| Keywords: | 新冠肺炎
疫情
恐慌
媒體報導
政府因應
房市
COVID-19
Pandemic
Panic
Media coverage
Government response
Real estate market |
| Date: | 2024 |
| Issue Date: | 2024-07-01 12:39:23 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 2020年初以來，新冠肺炎疫情肆虐全球，對全球經濟帶來衝擊，對世界各地的房地產市場也造成影響。本研究探討台灣在疫情期間，疫情、恐慌、媒體、政府疫情因應與房市調控，以Google Trends關鍵詞建構恐慌指數、牛津疫情政府回應指數衡量政府的疫情因應程度、RavenPack Coronavirus Data衡量疫情報導，分析疫情對房市價量變化的影響。將疫情前一年也納入變數範圍，樣本期間為2019年1月至2023年12月，並依本土疫情嚴重程度將樣本期間細分為疫情全期、潛伏期、爆發期、緩和期，分析不同階段房屋價與量的變化。
實證結果顯示，確診數對房價為顯著負向影響，對交易量卻為顯著正向影響；一般消費者的恐慌在疫情潛伏期對房價為顯著負向影響，在疫情爆發期對房價卻為顯著正向影響；房市消費者的恐慌對交易量為顯著負向影響；媒體報導相關指數對房價為顯著正向影響；政府遏止與健康指數在全期對房價與交易量為負向影響，但在疫情爆發期對房價為顯著正向影響；政府經濟支持對房價為顯著正向影響；政府的房市調控政策對房價與交易量為顯著負向影響。
本研究旨在期許日後若發生類似疫情的事件時，政府可藉由經濟支持與管制政策的相互調節，央行可評估在寬鬆貨幣經濟情況下對房市的調控政策是否能確實抑制投機炒作，建商可依此事件探討住宅的需求變化，並提供與市場需求相應之住宅商品，投資人及購屋者也可藉此審時度勢，避免因恐慌而做出不理性之決策，以上，期望能憑藉經驗相似性穩定台灣的房地產市場。
Since early 2020, the world has suffered from the pandemic “COVID-19”, which has influenced the economy and the real estate markets globally. Thus, this study investigates the impact of various factors on housing prices and transaction volumes in Taiwan during the COVID-19 pandemic. The examined factors include severity of the epidemic, panic, media coverage, government responses to the pandemic, and government control policies on housing markets. This study uses Google Trends Search Volume Index to construct panic indices, the Oxford Covid-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) to measure government's responses, and RavenPack Coronavirus Monitor Data to measure media reports. The sample period includes both the pandemic year and the preceding year (from January 2019 to December 2023), divided into the preceding, the whole, the latency, the outbreak, and the decline stage according to the severity of the epidemic.
The empirical results show that the number of confirmed cases has a negative impact on housing prices, but a positive impact on transaction volumes. General consumer panic has a significant negative impact on housing prices during the latency stage. Real estate consumer panic has a significant negative impact on transaction volumes. Media-related indices have a significant positive impact on housing prices. Government containment and health index has a significant impact on both housing prices and transaction volumes during the whole stage, but has a significant positive impact on housing prices during the ourbreak stage. Government economic support index has a significant positive impact on housing prices. Government’s housing market control policies have a significant negative impact on both housing prices and transaction volumes.
This study aims to provide a reference for similar events in the future. The government can strike a balance between economic support and regulatory policies. The central bank can assess whether housing market control policies can effectively curb speculative activities in the real estate market. Property developers can provide housing products which align with market demand. Investors and homebuyers can avoid panic and make rational decisions. Overall, the goal is to stabilize Taiwan’s real estate market based on past experiences. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
財務管理學系
111357013 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111357013 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [財務管理學系] 學位論文
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