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    政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 金融學系 > 學位論文 >  Item 140.119/152048


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    題名: 基於外匯選擇權波動率風險溢酬之外匯交易策略
    Foreign Exchange Trading Strategies Based on the Volatility Risk Premia of Currency Options
    作者: 黄崇佑
    Huang, Chung-Yu
    貢獻者: 林建秀
    Lin, Chien-Hsiu
    黄崇佑
    Huang, Chung-Yu
    關鍵詞: 外匯交易
    貨幣超額報酬
    外匯選擇權
    隱含波動率
    波動率差
    波動率風險溢酬
    Forex Trading
    Currency Excess Returns
    Currency Options
    Implied Volatility
    Volatility Spread
    Volatility Risk Premia
    日期: 2024
    上傳時間: 2024-07-01 12:33:45 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本研究探討基於外匯選擇權波動率風險溢酬（VRP）的投資策略有效性，並試圖找出與Corte et al. (2014) 使用的無模型隱含波動率不同，更簡單且易得的隱含波動率指標。資料涵蓋2010年10月18日至2023年10月18日，包括10個已開發國家和8個新興市場貨幣，以一年歷史波動率與價平隱含波動率建立VRP策略。結果顯示，未來一個月波動率風險溢酬較高的貨幣容易升值，較低的貨幣容易貶值，但這種關係並非在每個時期都存在，導致VRP策略表現受時期影響。市場恐慌造成的隱含波動率錯誤定價可能是使策略失效的主要原因。
    在與Corte et al. (2014)的比較上，本研究的超額報酬不及文獻且在部分時期出現虧損。然而本研究仍證實不論樣本是否包含新興國家，VRP策略超額報酬來源始終來自於匯差預期而非利差。
    This study investigates the effectiveness of an foreign exchange trading strategies based on the volatility risk premia (VRP) of currency options and attempts to identify a simpler and more accessible implied volatility measure compared to the model-free implied volatility used by Corte et al. (2014). The data covers the period from October 18, 2010, to October 18, 2023, including 10 developed countries and 8 emerging market currencies. The VRP strategy is established using one-year historical volatility and at-the-money implied volatility. The results show that currencies with higher volatility risk premiums tend to appreciate, while those with lower premiums tend to depreciate over the next month. However, this relationship does not hold in every period, causing the VRP strategy's performance to be period-dependent. Mispricing of implied volatility due to market panic is likely a key factor for the strategy's failure.
    In comparison with Corte et al. (2014), the excess returns of this study are lower and show losses in some periods. Nevertheless, this study confirms that the excess returns of the VRP strategy, regardless of the inclusion of emerging market currencies, are always derived from exchange rate returns rather than interest returns.
    參考文獻: 1. 中央銀行. (2023). 金融穩定報告(第17期). 台北市: 中央銀行.
    2. 陳威光. (2019). 金融創新與商品個案. 新陸書局書局.
    3. Atilgan, Y., Bali, T. G., & Demirtas, K. O. (2015). Implied volatility spreads and expected market returns. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 33(1), 87-101.
    4. Bali, T. G., & Hovakimian, A. (2009). Volatility spreads and expected stock returns. Management Science, 55, 1797-1812.
    5. Bank for International Settlements. (2022). OTC Derivatives Statistics at the end of November 2022. Basel: Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Bank for International Settlements. (2022). Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Over-the-Counter (OTC) Derivatives Markets in 2022. Basel: Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Beber, A., Buraschi, A., & Breedon, F. (2010). Differences in beliefs and currency risk premia. Journal of Financial Economics, 98, 415–438.
    8. Bollerslev, T., & Zhou, H. (2006). Volatility puzzles: a simple framework for gauging return-volatility regressions. Journal of Econometrics, 131(1-2), 123-150.
    9. Burnside, C., Eichenbaum, M., & Rebelo, S. (2011). Carry Trade and Momentum in Currency Markets. Annual Review of Financial Economics, 3, 511-535.
    10. Czech, R., Della Corte, P., Huang, S., & Wang, T. (2022). "FX Option Volume." Bank of England Staff Working Paper No. 964.
    11. Della Corte, P., Ramadorai, T., & Sarno, L. (2016). Volatility risk premia and exchange rate predictability. Journal of Financial Economics, 120, 21–40.
    12. Fullwood, J., James, J., & Marsh, I. W. (2021). Volatility and the cross-section of returns on FX options. Journal of Financial Economics, 141(3), 1262–1284.
    13. Garman, M. B., & Kohlhagen, S. W. (1983). Foreign currency option values. Journal of International Money and Finance, 2, 231-237.
    14. Goyal, A., & Saretto, A. (2009). Cross-section of option returns and volatility. Journal of Financial Economics, 94, 310–326.
    15. Grinblatt, M., & Han, B. (2005). Prospect theory, mental accounting, and momentum. Journal of Financial Economics, 78, 311–339.
    16. Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). Returns to buying winners and selling losers: Implications for stock market efficiency. The Journal of Finance, 48, 65–91.
    17. Lustig, H., & Adrien, V. (2007). The Cross Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk. The American Economic Review, 97, 89-117.
    18. Lustig, H., Roussanov, N., & Verdelhan, A. (2011). Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets. Review of Financial Studies, 24, 3731-3777.
    19. Okunev, J., & White, D. (2003). Do momentum-based strategies still work in foreign exchange markets? Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 38, 425–447.
    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    金融學系
    111352015
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111352015
    資料類型: thesis
    顯示於類別:[金融學系] 學位論文

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