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| Title: | 法人說明會情緒動態變化對股價報酬之影響：以美國股票市場為例
The Impact of Tone Dynamics during Earnings Calls on Stock Returns: the U.S. Stock Market |
| Authors: | 劉正萱
Liu, Cheng-Hsuan |
| Contributors: | 林靖庭
Lin, Ching-Ting
劉正萱
Liu, Cheng-Hsuan |
| Keywords: | 自然語言處理
語調分析
動態語調
法說會
公司管理層
分析師
Natural language processing
Tone analysis
Dynamic tones
Earnings call
Corporate manager
Analyst |
| Date: | 2024 |
| Issue Date: | 2024-07-01 12:32:47 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 法說會作為企業與市場溝通的重要橋樑，除了量化的企業財務數據外，與會者在會議中所展現出的質性資訊亦蘊含高度價值。故，本文以美國S&P 500企業作為樣本，以法說會與會者之語調情緒作為研究因子，探討不同環節、不同角色在法說會中所展現的情緒差異是否影響短期股價報酬。相較過往研究曾關注法說會參與者之個體（如公司管理層、外部分析師）靜態情緒分析，本文更著重於各參與角色在對話中展現出的情緒動態差異對市場的影響性。於此，此研究的主要發現為：法說會「問答環節分析師提問段落」與「公司報告環節」之情緒變動與個股股價表現呈現正相關，當分析師情緒呈現下滑情形時，股價隨之下跌，有效減弱公司管理層過度美化的報告影響力。進一步將此結果進行剖析，則得出兩項發現：首先，高機構投資人佔比的個股展現出更高相關性；再者，當分析師在法說會中參與程度越踴躍時，此正向相關程度亦更為明顯，意即分析師情緒相較報告環節下降越多，股價跌落幅度越深。
Earnings calls serve as a crucial bridge for communication between corporations and the market. Beyond quantitative financial data, the qualitative information exhibited by participants during these meetings also holds significant value. Thus, this paper uses the S&P 500 companies as samples and examines the tone of participants during earnings calls as research variables. It explores whether the tone gaps displayed by different roles and in different segments of the earnings call impact short-term stock returns. Unlike previous studies that focused on static tone analysis of individual participants (such as corporate managers and analysts), this paper emphasizes the differences in tone dynamics exhibited by various roles during the dialogue and their market impact. The main findings of this research are as follows: The tone difference between 'analyst question' and 'corporate reporting' of the earnings calls shows a positive correlation with the performance of individual stock prices. When analysts’ tones decline, stock prices tend to fall, effectively reducing the impact of overly optimistic reports from corporate managers. Further analysis of these results reveals two findings: First, stocks with a higher proportion of institutional investors show a stronger correlation; second, the more active the analysts' participation in the earnings calls, the more pronounced this positive correlation, meaning that the more analysts’ tones drop compared to the reporting, the deeper the stock price fall. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
金融學系
110352002 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110352002 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [金融學系] 學位論文
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