Loading...
|
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/151521
|
| Title: | 加州碳排放限額與交易系統對企業的經濟影響：使用雙重差分法以及綜合控制法
The Economic Effects of the California Cap-and-Trade Program: Firm-Level Evidence Using Difference-in-Differences and Synthetic Control Method |
| Authors: | 周郁翔
Chou, Yu-Hsiang |
| Contributors: | 羅秉政
Kendro Vincent
周郁翔
Chou, Yu-Hsiang |
| Keywords: | 氣候政策
加州碳排放限額與交易系統
雙重差分法
綜合控制法
Climate policy
California cap-and-trade program
Difference-in-differences
Synthetic control method |
| Date: | 2024 |
| Issue Date: | 2024-06-03 11:48:54 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本研究採用雙重差分法 (difference-in-differences, DiD) 和綜合控制法 (synthetic control method, SCM) 來探討加州碳排放限額與交易系統 (the California cap-and-trade program) 對企業獲利能力、市場份額、創新和股票報酬的影響。我們嘗試了多種穩健性策略，包括替代模型、事件日、控制組和標準差。結果表明，企業的獲利能力似乎並未受到該計劃的影響，而對市場份額、創新以及股票報酬的影響則正負參半，並且顯著性在不同模型有所差異。本文的結論是，總體趨勢以及個別公司的差異，似乎比此計畫的影響還要顯著，至少在我們的研究框架中，加州碳排放限額與交易系統對企業的經濟影響很微弱。我們提供了幾個可能的解釋，以及對未來的研究者的建議。總結來說，本研究全面性地探討了環境監管的經濟影響，並且對政府機關和投資者都具有重大意義，無論是在制定環境監管政策還是投資策略上。
This study employs the difference-in-differences (DiD) regression and the synthetic control method (SCM) to investigate the economic effects of the California cap-and-trade program on the participating firms in terms of profitability, market share, innovation, and stock returns. We conduct several robustness checks, including alternative models, event day, control firms, and standard errors. The results show that the profitability of firms does not seem to be affected by this program, while the evidence for the effects on market share, innovation, and stock returns shows mixed results, and the significance varies among different models. Our conclusion is that the regulated firms appear to be affected more by the overall trends and differences in characteristics among individual firms than by the cap-and-trade program. We provide several possible explanations and suggestions for future researchers. Overall, this study comprehensively explores the economic effects of an important environmental regulation, and holds significant implications for governmental agencies and investors, whether in shaping environmental regulations and investment strategies. |
| Reference: | Abadie, A. (2021). Using synthetic controls: Feasibility, data requirements, and methodological aspects. Journal of Economic Literature, 59(2), 391-425.
Abadie, A., & Gardeazabal, J. (2003). The economic costs of conflict: A case study of the Basque Country. American Economic Review, 93(1), 113-132.
Abadie, A., Diamond, A., & Hainmueller, J. (2010). Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: Estimating the effect of California’s tobacco control program. Journal of the American Satistical Association, 105(490), 493-505.
Abadie, A., Diamond, A., & Hainmueller, J. (2015). Comparative politics and the synthetic control method. American Journal of Political Science, 59(2), 495-510.
Abrell, J., Ndoye Faye, A., & Zachmann, G. (2011). Assessing the impact of the EU ETS using firm level data (No. 2011/08). Bruegel Working Paper.
Albertini, E. (2013). Does environmental management improve financial performance? A meta-analytical review. Organization & Environment, 26(4), 431-457.
Alpay, E., Kerkvliet, J., & Buccola, S. (2002). Productivity growth and environmental regulation in Mexican and US food manufacturing. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 84(4), 887-901.
Ambec, S., Cohen, M. A., Elgie, S., & Lanoie, P. (2013). The Porter hypothesis at 20: Can environmental regulation enhance innovation and competitiveness?. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy.
Anger, N., & Oberndorfer, U. (2008). Firm performance and employment in the EU emissions trading scheme: An empirical assessment for Germany. Energy Policy, 36(1), 12-22.
Barbera, A. J., & McConnell, V. D. (1990). The impact of environmental regulations on industry productivity: direct and indirect effects. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 18(1), 50-65.
Bartram, S. M., Hou, K., & Kim, S. (2022). Real effects of climate policy: Financial constraints and spillovers. Journal of Financial Economics, 143(2), 668-696.
Basseches, J. A. (2020). California cap-and-trade: History, design, effectiveness. Contesting carbon. Oxfordshire: Routledge.
Ben-Michael, E., Feller, A., & Rothstein, J. (2021). The augmented synthetic control method. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 116(536), 1789-1803.
Berman, E., & Bui, L. T. (2001). Environmental regulation and productivity: Evidence from oil refineries. Review of Economics and Statistics, 83(3), 498-510.
Bernardini, E., Di Giampaolo, J., Faiella, I., & Poli, R. (2021). The impact of carbon risk on stock returns: Evidence from the European electric utilities. Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, 11(1), 1-26.
Billmeier, A., & Nannicini, T. (2013). Assessing economic liberalization episodes: A synthetic control approach. Review of Economics and Statistics, 95(3), 983-1001.
Blackman, A., Lahiri, B., Pizer, W., Planter, M. R., & Piña, C. M. (2010). Voluntary environmental regulation in developing countries: Mexico’s Clean Industry Program. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 60(3), 182-192.
Borghesi, S., Cainelli, G., & Mazzanti, M. (2012). Brown sunsets and green dawns in the industrial sector: Environmental innovations, firm behavior and the European emission trading. FEEM Working Paper No. 3.2012.
Brunnermeier, S. B., & Cohen, M. A. (2003). Determinants of environmental innovation in US manufacturing industries. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 45(2), 278-293.
Bushnell, J. B., Chong, H., & Mansur, E. T. (2013). Profiting from regulation: Evidence from the European carbon market. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 5(4), 78-106.
Calel, R. (2020). Adopt or innovate: Understanding technological responses to cap-and-trade. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 12(3), 170-201.
Calel, R., & Dechezleprêtre, A. (2016). Environmental policy and directed technological change: Evidence from the European carbon market. Review of Economics and Statistics, 98(1), 173-191.
Caron, J., Rausch, S., & Winchester, N. (2015). Leakage from sub-national climate policy: The case of California’s cap-and-trade program. The Energy Journal, 36(2), 167-190.
Chan, H. S. R., Li, S., & Zhang, F. (2013). Firm competitiveness and the European Union emissions trading scheme. Energy Policy, 63, 1056-1064.
Chen, Z., Zhang, X., & Chen, F. (2021). Do carbon emission trading schemes stimulate green innovation in enterprises? Evidence from China. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 168, 120744.
Cohen, M. A., Fenn, S., & Naimon, J. S. (1995). Environmental and financial performance: Are they related?. Investor Responsibility Research Center, Environmental Information Service.
Commins, N., Lyons, S., Schiffbauer, M., & Tol, R. S. (2011). Climate policy & corporate behavior. The Energy Journal, 32(4), 51-68.
Compagnie, V., Struyfs, K., & Torsin, W. (2023). Tax avoidance as an unintended consequence of environmental regulation: Evidence from the EU ETS. Journal of Corporate Finance, 82, 102463.
Conley, T. G., & Taber, C. R. (2011). Inference with “difference in differences” with a small number of policy changes. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 93(1), 113-125.
Cordeiro, J. J., & Sarkis, J. (1997). Environmental proactivism and firm performance: Evidence from security analyst earnings forecasts. Business Strategy and the Environment, 6(2), 104-114.
Cui, J., Zhang, J., & Zheng, Y. (2018). Carbon pricing induces innovation: Evidence from China's regional carbon market pilots. In AEA Papers and Proceedings (Vol. 108, pp. 453-457). American Economic Association.
Cushing, L., Blaustein-Rejto, D., Wander, M., Pastor, M., Sadd, J., Zhu, A., & Morello-Frosch, R. (2018). Carbon trading, co-pollutants, and environmental equity: Evidence from California’s cap-and-trade program (2011–2015). PLoS Medicine, 15(7), e1002604.
da Silva, P. P., Moreno, B., & Figueiredo, N. C. (2016). Firm-specific impacts of CO2 prices on the stock market value of the Spanish power industry. Energy Policy, 94, 492-501.
Dasgupta, K., & Mason, B. J. (2020). The effect of interest rate caps on bankruptcy: Synthetic control evidence from recent payday lending bans. Journal of Banking & Finance, 119, 105917.
de Azevedo Rezende, L., Bansi, A. C., Alves, M. F. R., & Galina, S. V. R. (2019). Take your time: Examining when green innovation affects financial performance in multinationals. Journal of Cleaner Production, 233, 993-1003.
Dechezleprêtre, A., Nachtigall, D., & Venmans, F. (2023). The joint impact of the European Union emissions trading system on carbon emissions and economic performance. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 118, 102758.
Demailly, D., & Quirion, P. (2008). European Emission Trading Scheme and competitiveness: A case study on the iron and steel industry. Energy economics, 30(4), 2009-2027.
Dickinson, V. (2011). Cash flow patterns as a proxy for firm life cycle. The Accounting Review, 86(6), 1969-1994.
Earnhart, D., & Lizal, L. (2007). Effect of pollution control on corporate financial performance in a transition economy. European Environment, 17(4), 247-266.
Filbeck, G., & Gorman, R. F. (2004). The relationship between the environmental and financial performance of public utilities. Environmental and Resource Economics, 29(2), 137-157.
Ford, J. A., Steen, J., & Verreynne, M. L. (2014). How environmental regulations affect innovation in the Australian oil and gas industry: Going beyond the Porter Hypothesis. Journal of Cleaner Production, 84, 204-213.
Gollop, F. M., & Roberts, M. J. (1983). Environmental regulations and productivity growth: The case of fossil-fueled electric power generation. Journal of Political Economy, 91(4), 654-674.
Gore Jr, A. (1992). Earth in the Balance: Ecology and the Human Spirit. Houghton Mifflin, Boston.
Gray, W. B., & Shadbegian, R. J. (2003). Plant vintage, technology, and environmental regulation. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 46(3), 384-402.
Griffin, P. A. (2013). Cap‐and‐trade emission allowances and US companies' balance sheets. Sustainability Accounting, Management and Policy Journal, 4(1), 7-31.
Hang, M., Geyer‐Klingeberg, J., & Rathgeber, A. W. (2019). It is merely a matter of time: A meta‐analysis of the causality between environmental performance and financial performance. Business Strategy and the Environment, 28(2), 257-273.
Hansen, B. (2022). Econometrics. Princeton University Press.
Hernandez-Cortes, D., & Meng, K. C. (2023). Do environmental markets cause environmental injustice? Evidence from California’s carbon market. Journal of Public Economics, 217, 104786.
Horbach, J. (2008). Determinants of environmental innovation—New evidence from German Panel data sources. Research Policy, 37(1), 163-173.
Hu, J., Crijns-Graus, W., Lam, L., & Gilbert, A. (2015). Ex-ante evaluation of EU ETS during 2013–2030: EU-internal abatement. Energy Policy, 77, 152-163.
Huang, N., He, R., Luo, L., & Shen, H. (2023). Carbon emission trading scheme and firm debt financing. Journal of Contemporary Accounting & Economics, 100384.
Ivanov, I. T., Kruttli, M. S., & Watugala, S. W. (2024). Banking on carbon: Corporate lending and cap-and-trade policy. The Review of Financial Studies, 37(5), 1640-1684.
Jaffe, A. B., & Palmer, K. (1997). Environmental regulation and innovation: a Panel data study. Review of Economics and Statistics, 79(4), 610-619.
Jaggi, B., & Freedman, M. (1992). An examination of the impact of pollution performance on economic and market performance: Pulp and paper firms. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 19(5), 697-713.
Jaraitė, J., & Maria, C. D. (2016). Did the EU ETS make a difference? An empirical assessment using Lithuanian firm-level data. The Energy Journal, 37(2), 68-92.
Joltreau, E., & Sommerfeld, K. (2019). Why does emissions trading under the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) not affect firms’ competitiveness? Empirical findings from the literature. Climate Policy, 19(4), 453-471.
Jong, T., Couwenberg, O., & Woerdman, E. (2014). Does EU emissions trading bite? An event study. Energy Policy, 69, 510-519.
Kramer, N., & Lessmann, C. (2023). The Effects of Carbon Trading: Evidence from California’s ETS. Working Paper.
Lanoie, P., Laurent‐Lucchetti, J., Johnstone, N., & Ambec, S. (2011). Environmental policy, innovation and performance: new insights on the Porter hypothesis. Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, 20(3), 803-842.
Lanoie, P., Patry, M., & Lajeunesse, R. (2008). Environmental regulation and productivity: Testing the porter hypothesis. Journal of Productivity Analysis, 30, 121-128.
Lessmann, C., & Kramer, N. (2024). The effect of cap-and-trade on sectoral emissions: Evidence from California. Energy Policy, 188, 114066.
Liu, J., & Liu, X. (2023). Effects of carbon emission trading schemes on green technological innovation by industrial enterprises: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China. Journal of Innovation & Knowledge, 8(3), 100410.
Liu, Z., & Sun, H. (2021). Assessing the impact of emissions trading scheme on low-carbon technological innovation: Evidence from China. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 89, 106589.
Löfgren, Å., Wråke, M., Hagberg, T., & Roth, S. (2014). Why the EU ETS needs reforming: an empirical analysis of the impact on company investments. Climate Policy, 14(5), 537-558.
Marin, G., Marino, M., & Pellegrin, C. (2018). The impact of the European Emission Trading Scheme on multiple measures of economic performance. Environmental and Resource Economics, 71, 551-582.
Martin, R., Muuls, M., & Wagner, U. (2013). Carbon markets, carbon prices and innovation: Evidence from interviews with managers. In Annual Meetings of the American Economic Association, San Diego. Citeseer.
Martin, R., Muûls, M., & Wagner, U. J. (2016). The impact of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme on regulated firms: What is the evidence after ten years?. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy.
Mascia, D. V., & Onali, E. (2024). Keep calm and carry on emitting: cap-and-trade rules, local emissions and growth. Regional Studies, 58(1), 220-237.
Mo, J. L., Zhu, L., & Fan, Y. (2012). The impact of the EU ETS on the corporate value of European electricity corporations. Energy, 45(1), 3-11.
Moreno, B., & da Silva, P. P. (2016). How do Spanish polluting sectors' stock market returns react to European Union allowances prices? A Panel data approach. Energy, 103, 240-250.
Ni, X., Jin, Q., & Huang, K. (2022). Environmental regulation and the cost of debt: Evidence from the carbon emission trading system pilot in China. Finance Research Letters, 49, 103134.
Oberndorfer, U. (2009). EU emission allowances and the stock market: Evidence from the electricity industry. Ecological Economics, 68(4), 1116-1126.
Oestreich, A. M., & Tsiakas, I. (2015). Carbon emissions and stock returns: Evidence from the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. Journal of Banking & Finance, 58, 294-308.
Palmer, K., Oates, W. E., & Portney, P. R. (1995). Tightening environmental standards: The benefit-cost or the no-cost paradigm?. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(4), 119-132.
Petrick, S., & Wagner, U. J. (2014). The impact of carbon trading on industry: Evidence from German manufacturing firms. Kiel Working Paper No. 1912, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (2014).
Popp, D. (2006). International innovation and diffusion of air pollution control technologies: The effects of NOX and SO2 regulation in the US, Japan, and Germany. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 51(1), 46-71.
Porter, M. E. (1991). Towards a dynamic theory of strategy. Strategic Management Journal, 12(S2), 95-117.
Porter, M. E., & Linde, C. V. D. (1995). Toward a new conception of the environment-competitiveness relationship. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(4), 97-118.
Ranson, M., & Stavins, R. N. (2012). Post-Durban climate policy architecture based on linkage of cap-and-trade systems (No. w18140). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Ren, S., Hu, Y., Zheng, J., & Wang, Y. (2020). Emissions trading and firm innovation: Evidence from a natural experiment in China. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 155, 119989.
Ren, S., Yang, X., Hu, Y., & Chevallier, J. (2022). Emission trading, induced innovation and firm performance. Energy Economics, 112, 106157.
Sanchez, C. M., & McKinley, W. (1998). Environmental regulatory influence and product innovation: The contingency effects of organizational characteristics. Journal of Engineering and Technology Management, 15(4), 257-278.
Schmalensee, R., & Stavins, R. N. (2017). Lessons learned from three decades of experience with cap and trade. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy.
Stanwick, P. A., & Stanwick, S. D. (1998). The relationship between corporate social performance, and organizational size, financial performance, and environmental performance: An empirical examination. Journal of Business Ethics, 17(2), 195-204.
Sun, R., Wang, K., Wang, X., & Zhang, J. (2022). China’s carbon emission trading scheme and firm performance. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 58(3), 837-851.
Tang, H. L., Liu, J. M., Mao, J., & Wu, J. G. (2020). The effects of emission trading system on corporate innovation and productivity-empirical evidence from China’s SO2 emission trading system. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27(17), 21604-21620.
Tian, Y., Akimov, A., Roca, E., & Wong, V. (2016). Does the carbon market help or hurt the stock price of electricity companies? Further evidence from the European context. Journal of Cleaner Production, 112, 1619-1626.
Triebswetter, U., & Hitchens, D. (2005). The impact of environmental regulation on competitiveness in the German manufacturing industry—a comparison with other countries of the European Union. Journal of Cleaner Production, 13(7), 733-745.
Triebswetter, U., & Wackerbauer, J. (2008). Integrated environmental product innovation in the region of Munich and its impact on company competitiveness. Journal of Cleaner Production, 16(14), 1484-1493.
Veith, S., Werner, J. R., & Zimmermann, J. (2009). Capital market response to emission rights returns: Evidence from the European power sector. Energy economics, 31(4), 605-613.
Venmans, F. (2015). Capital market response to emission allowance prices: a multivariate GARCH approach. Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, 17, 577-620.
Wagner, M. (2005). How to reconcile environmental and economic performance to improve corporate sustainability: Corporate environmental strategies in the European paper industry. Journal of Environmental Management, 76(2), 105-118.
Wagner, U. J., Muûls, M., Martin, R., & Colmer, J. (2014, June). The causal effects of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme: Evidence from French manufacturing plants. In Fifth World Congress of Environmental and Resources Economists, Instanbul, Turkey. Citeseer.
Walch, R. T. (2018). The effect of California’s carbon cap and trade program on co-pollutants and environmental justice: Evidence from the electricity sector. Environment, PM2, 5, 440-48.
Walker, H., Di Sisto, L., & McBain, D. (2008). Drivers and barriers to environmental supply chain management practices: Lessons from the public and private sectors. Journal of Purchasing and Supply Management, 14(1), 69-85.
Wang, Y., Sun, X., & Guo, X. (2019). Environmental regulation and green productivity growth: Empirical evidence on the Porter Hypothesis from OECD industrial sectors. Energy Policy, 132, 611-619.
Xiao, J., Li, G., Zhu, B., Xie, L., Hu, Y., & Huang, J. (2021). Evaluating the impact of carbon emissions trading scheme on Chinese firms’ total factor productivity. Journal of Cleaner Production, 306, 127104.
Yu, H. (2013). The EU ETS and firm profits: An ex-post analysis for Swedish energy firms. Environmental Economics, (4, Iss. 3), 59-71.
Yu, P., Hao, R., & Sun, Y. (2023). How do the designs of emission trading system affect the value of covered firms—A quasi-natural experiment based on China. Energy Economics, 126, 106944.
Zhang, Y. J., Shi, W., & Jiang, L. (2020). Does China's carbon emissions trading policy improve the technology innovation of relevant enterprises?. Business Strategy and the Environment, 29(3), 872-885.
Zhou, F., & Wang, X. (2022). The carbon emissions trading scheme and green technology innovation in China: A new structural economics perspective. Economic Analysis and Policy, 74, 365-381.
Zhu, J., Fan, Y., Deng, X., & Xue, L. (2019). Low-carbon innovation induced by emissions trading in China. Nature Communications, 10(1), 4088.
Zhu, Q., Sarkis, J., & Lai, K. H. (2007). Green supply chain management: Pressures, practices and performance within the Chinese automobile industry. Journal of Cleaner Production, 15(11-12), 1041-1052. |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
金融學系
111352023 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111352023 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [金融學系] 學位論文
|
Files in This Item:
| File |
Description |
Size | Format | |
|---|
| 202301.pdf | | 11534Kb | Adobe PDF | 0 | View/Open |
|
All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.
|
