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    題名: Dynamic and Non-Linear Analysis of the Impact of Diurnal Temperature Range on Road Traffic Accidents
    作者: 蕭又新;楊素芬
    Shiau, Yuo-Hsien;Yang, Su-Fen;Adha, Rishan;Peng, Giia-Sheun;Muzayyanah, Syamsiyatul
    貢獻者: 應物所;統計系
    關鍵詞: diurnal temperature range;climate factor;air pollution;road accident
    日期: 2023-10
    上傳時間: 2024-03-05 16:27:13 (UTC+8)
    摘要: The diurnal temperature range (DTR) is a significant indicator of climate change, and a previous study has shown its impact on human health. However, research investigating the influence of DTR on road traffic accidents is scarce. Thus, this study aims to evaluate the impact of changes in DTR on road traffic accidents. The present study employs two methods to address the complexities of road accidents. Firstly, panel data from 20 cities and counties in Taiwan are utilized, and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is employed for estimation. Secondly, distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) are used with quasi-Poisson regression analysis to assess the DTR’s lagged and non-linear relationships with road accidents using time series data from six Taiwanese metropolitan cities. The study results indicate that a decrease of 1 °C in DTR raises long-term road traffic accidents by 17.1%. In the short term, the impact of declining DTR on road accidents is around 4%. Moreover, the effect of low DTR values differs in each city in Taiwan. Three cities had high levels of road accidents, as evidenced by an increase in the relative risk value; two cities had moderate responses; and one city had a relatively lower response compared to high DTR values. Finally, based on the cumulative relative risk estimations, the study found that a low diurnal temperature range is linked to a high road traffic accident rate, especially during the lag-specific 0–5 months. The findings of this study offer fresh evidence of the negative impact of climate factor on road traffic accidents.
    關聯: Climate, Vol.11, No.10, 199
    資料類型: article
    DOI 連結: https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11100199
    DOI: 10.3390/cli11100199
    顯示於類別:[應用物理研究所 ] 期刊論文
    [統計學系] 期刊論文

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