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    題名: 從地緣政治觀點檢視蒙古的第三鄰國政策
    Mongolia’s Third Neighbor Policy: A Geopolitical Perspective
    作者: 郭思佳
    Jakóbowska, Zuzanna Zofia
    貢獻者: 袁力強
    Li-Chiang Yuan
    郭思佳
    Zuzanna Zofia Jakóbowska
    關鍵詞: 蒙古
    外交政策
    地緣政治
    Mongolia
    foreign policy
    geopolitics
    日期: 2024
    上傳時間: 2024-03-01 14:18:11 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本篇論文詳細分析了蒙古地緣戰略位置及其與最重要外交夥伴(2012-2022) 的外交關係，用以研究該國在美國、中國和俄羅斯等主要全球大國之間地 緣政治衝突的背景下的外交政策。各個章節分別闡述蒙古-中國-俄羅斯三 邊區域合作、與中國和俄羅斯的雙邊關係，以及透過特殊的“第三鄰國政 策”與距離更遠的夥伴建立的關係。收集到的質性資料被用來研究地緣政 治衝突如何影響蒙古及其對大國競爭的官方立場。在結論部分，分析結果 被置於國際關係新現實主義學派的理論框架下，特別著重在“扈從”和 “避險”理論。這個獨立的分析表明，由於內在的國內因素、與鄰國經濟 的依賴關係以及美中俄之間敵對態度的加劇，蒙古將很可能限制其透過 “第三鄰國政策”進行的平衡和避險手段，並在未來更多地表現出“扈從” 的行為。
    This dissertation addresses the question of how and why the current geopolitical conflict, primarily characterized by the rivalry among the United States, China, and Russia, is impacting Mongolia’s “Third Neighbor Policy” launched in 2011 to facilitate the diplomatic engagement with external powers and counterbalance the international influence of neighboring China and Russia. Situated within the context of the post-2010s geopolitical landscape, this research provides a new, detailed, and up-to-date analysis of the topic. In this qualitative study, the data on Mongolia’s geostrategic position and recent diplomatic conduct (2012-2022) is examined through the lens of international relations’ neorealism, with a particular focus on S. Walt’s balance of threat theory and its factors driving states toward bandwagoning behavior with regional hegemons. The theoretical analysis presented in the dissertation suggests that, in the current international scenario, Mongolia is likely to adopt a strategy of bandwagoning with China and Russia while limiting its previous hedging behavior of expanding diplomatic relations with other major global powers. This study not only sheds light on Mongolia’s geopolitical situation and foreign policy, but also offers a theoretical framework based on balance of threat theory for understanding how small powers might respond to external geopolitical conflicts, applicable for conducting case studies on different countries.
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