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| Title: | 碳信用抵換期貨發展及交易之研究
Research on the Development and Trading of Carbon Offset Futures |
| Authors: | 陳彥惇
Chen, Yen-Tun |
| Contributors: | 林士貴
黃炳鈞
Lin, Shih-Kuei
Huang, Bing-Jing
陳彥惇
Chen, Yen-Tun |
| Keywords: | 碳權
自願性碳權市場
碳信用抵換期貨
機器學習
長短記憶模型
voluntary carbon market
carbon offset futures
machine learning
LSTM |
| Date: | 2024 |
| Issue Date: | 2024-02-01 11:31:48 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 2021年舉辦的COP26，各締約國簽署格拉斯哥氣候協議（Glasgow Climate Pact），同意全球必須採取更積極作為，達成2050年淨零碳排，以守住升溫臨界值攝氏 1.5 度之目標。若要實現淨零碳排的目標，強制性市場工具（如各國政府實施的碳排放總量管制、碳費）及自願性市場工具（如碳信用抵換機制）皆扮演重要角色。碳信用抵換期貨市場近年發展快速，以CME所上市之GEO及N-GEO期貨最為成功；本研究發現，CME碳信用抵換期貨在不同到期日之契約間具有正價差之特性，且該特性不因價格走跌而消失；此外，未平倉量及交易需求主要皆集中在當年度12月份到期之契約，此現象應與歐、美碳排放配額市場之法遵期限有關。實證部分，本論文透過RNN機器學習模型－LSTM，進行GEO及N-GEO期貨價格之預測，發現除碳信用抵換商品外，加入碳排放配額資產（EUA期貨及RGGI期貨）及能源類資產（天然氣期貨及電力期貨）對GEO及N-GEO期貨價格皆有良好的預測效果。
In 2021, during the COP26 conference, participating countries signed the Glasgow Climate Pact. They agreed that global efforts must be more proactive to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, aiming to keep the global temperature rise below the critical threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius. To achieve the goal of net-zero carbon emissions, both compliance market tools (such as cap-and-trade mechanism implemented by governments) and voluntary market tools (such as carbon credit offset) play important roles. In recent years, the carbon offset futures market has rapidly developed, with the GEO and N-GEO futures listed on the CME proving to be particularly successful. This study found that CME carbon offset futures exhibit contango between contracts with different expiration periods, and this characteristic persists even when prices decline. Furthermore, open interest and trading demand are primarily concentrated in contracts expiring in December of the current year, a phenomenon likely related to compliance deadlines in the European and American carbon emission markets. In the empirical part of the study, the paper uses the RNN machine learning model – LSTM to predict the prices of GEO and N-GEO futures. The findings indicate that, apart from carbon credit offset itself, adding carbon emission allowance assets (EUA & RGGI futures) and energy-related assets (Nature Gas & Electricity futures) can demonstrate good predictive capabilities for GEO and N-GEO futures prices. |
| Reference: | 一、期刊文章、會議論文及研究報告
1.Batten, J. a., Maddox, G. e., & Young, M. r. (2021). Does Weather, or Energy Prices, Affect Carbon Prices? Energy Economics, Volume 9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.105016
2.Benessaiah, K. (2021). Carbon and Livelihoods in Post-Kyoto: Assessing Voluntary Carbon Markets. Ecological Economics, Volume 77, Pages 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.02.022
3.Bose, A., Cohen, J., Fattouh, B., Johnson, O., & Spilker, G. (2021). Voluntary Markets for Carbon Offsets: Evolution and Lessons for the LNG Market. The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Voluntary-markets-for-carbon-offsets-Evolution-features-and-lessons-for-the-LNG-market-ET03.pdf
4.Broekhof, D., Gillenwater, M., Colbert-sangree, T., & Cage, P. (2019). Securing Climate Benefit: A Guide to Using Carbon Offsets (劉仲恩、蔡香吾, 譯).
Stockholm Environment Institute & Greenhouse Gas Management Institute. https://www.offsetguide.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Carbon-Offset-Guide_3122020.pdf
5.Byun, S. joon, & Cho, H. (2013). Forecasting Carbon Futures Volatility Using GARCH Models with Energy Volatilities. Energy Economics, Volume 40, Pages 207–221. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2013.06.017
6.Chevallier, J., Nguyen, D. K., & Reboredo, J. C. (2019). A Conditional Dependence Approach to CO2-Energy Price Relationships. Energy Economics, Volume 81, 812–821. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2019.05.010
7.Coffman, D., & Lockley, A. (2017). Carbon Dioxide Removal and the Futures Market. Environmental Research Letters, Volume 12(Number 1), 015003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa54e8
8.Fattouh, B., & Maino, A. (2022). Article 6 and Voluntary Carbon Markets. Oxford Institute of Energy Studies, Volume 114 https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/article-6-and-voluntary-carbon-markets/.
9.Ji, L., Zou, Y., He, K., & Zhu, B. (2019). Carbon Futures Price Forecasting Based with ARIMA-CNN-LSTM Model. Procedia Computer Science, Volume 162, Pages 33–38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2019.11.254
10.Li, H., Huang, X., Zhou, D., Cao, A., Su, M., Wang, Y., & Guo, L. (2022). Forecasting Carbon Price in China: A Multimodel Comparison. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Volume 19(10), 6217. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19106217
11.Luo, X., Yu, R., Guo, Y., Jia, H., & Liu, D. (2022). Carbon Price Prediction of LSTM Method Based on Attention Mechanism. 2022 4th International Conference on Smart Power & Internet Energy Systems (SPIES). https://doi.org/10.1109/SPIES55999.2022.10082179
12.Palao, F., & Pardo, Á. (2021). The Inconvenience Yield of Carbon Futures.
Energy Economics, Volume 101. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105461
13.Spilker, G., & Nugent, N. (2022). Voluntary Carbon Market Derivatives: Growth, Innovation & Usage. Borsa Istanbul Review, Volume 22, Supplement 2, Pages S109–S118. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2022.11.008
14.Tan, X., & Wang, X. (2017). Dependence Changes between the Carbon Price and Its Fundamentals: A Quantile Regression Approach. Applied Energy, Volume 190(issue C), 306–325. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.12.116
15.Trück, S., Weron, R. (2016). Convenience Yields and Risk Premiums in the EU-ETS - Evidence from the Kyoto Commitment Period. The Journal of Futures Markets, Volume 36(6), 587–611. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2889860
16.Zhou, F., Huang, Z., & Zhang, C. (2022). Carbon Price Forecasting Based on CEEMDAN and LSTM. Applied Energy, Volume 311, 118601. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.118601
17.郭博堯. (2022). 聯合國碳交易市場之建構與展望. 於中技社通訊, 141(春季刊), 17–19. https://www.ctci.org.tw/ebook/CTCI_quarterly_141/141Spring.html
二、官方文件及報告書
1.Commodity Futures Trading Commission. (2023). Release Number 8829-23: CFTC Issues Proposed Guidance Regarding the Listing of Voluntary Carbon Credit Derivative Contracts. https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8829-23
2.European Commission. (2021). Use of international credits https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/eu-emissions-trading-system-eu-ets/use-international-credits_en
3.European Securities and Markets Authority. (2022). Final Report: Emission Allowances and Associated Derivatives. https://www.esma.europa.eu/sites/default/files/library/esma70-445-38_final_report_on_emission_allowances_and_associated_derivatives.pdf
4.International Swaps and Derivatives Association. (2021). Legal Implications of Voluntary Carbon Credits. https://www.isda.org/a/38ngE/Legal-Implications-of-Voluntary-Carbon-Credits.pdf
5.International Swaps and Derivatives Association. (2021). Role of Derivatives in Carbon Markets. https://www.isda.org/a/soigE/Role-of-Derivatives-in-Carbon-Markets.pdf
6.IPCC. FAQ Chapter 1. https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/faq/faq-chapter-1/
7.The Board of IOSCO. (2022). Voluntary Carbon Markets Discussion Paper. OICV-IOSCO. https://www.iosco.org/library/pubdocs/pdf/IOSCOPD718.pdf
8.World Bank. (2023). State and Trends of Carbon Pricing. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/39796
三、網路資源
1.Bily, G. (December 19, 2023). The market impact of the new EU ETS compliance cycle. Carbon Pulse. https://carbon-pulse.com/219488/
2.CDM. Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Retrieved December 10, 2023, from https://cdm.unfccc.int/
3.Global Emission Reduction (GER) Futures Contract Specification. Nodal Exchange. https://www.nodalexchange.com/wp-content/uploads/Global-Emission-Reduction-GER-Contract-Specification.pdf
4.L., J. (June 9, 2023). The Collapse of NGEO Carbon Prices: An In-Depth Analysis. Carbon Credits. https://carboncredits.com/the-collapse-of-ngeo-carbon-prices-an-in-depth-analysis/
5.Navigating the Paris Rulebook. World Resources Institute. Retrieved December 9, 2023, from https://www.wri.org/paris-rulebook
6.Ritchie, H., & Roser, M. Taiwan: CO2 Country Profile. Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/co2/country/taiwan#what-share-of-global-co2-emissions-are-emitted-by-the-country
7.Spilker, G. (February 6, 2022). The Future(s) of Emissions Trading – COP26 and the Market for Voluntary Carbon Offsets. OpenMarkets, CME Group. https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/commodities/2022/The-Future-of-Emissions-Trading-COP26-and-the-Market-for-Voluntary-Carbon-Offsets.html
8.The Harris Poll. (April 13, 2023). Report: Executives Fear Greenwashing and the Economy Will Stall Sustainability Progress. Google Cloud. https://cloud.google.com/blog/transform/2023-google-cloud-sustainability-survey
9.The Voluntary Carbon Market Dashboard. CLIMATE FOCUS. Retrieved December 9, 2023, from https://climatefocus.com/initiatives/voluntary-carbon-market-dashboard/
10.What Is the Kyoto Protocol?. UNFCCC. Retrieved December 9, 2023, from https://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol
11.What Is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change? UN Climate Change. Retrieved September 30, 2023, from https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/what-is-the-united-nations-framework-convention-on-climate-change |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
國際金融碩士學位學程
111ZB1020 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111ZB1020 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [國際金融碩士學位學程] 學位論文
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