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| Title: | 利用專利分析進行技術預測：評估浮動式離岸風電技術創新發展
Technological Forecasting by Patent Analysis: The Development of Floating Offshore Wind Energy Technology |
| Authors: | 陳思妤
Chen, Sih-Yu |
| Contributors: | 柯玉佳
Ko, Yu-Chia
陳思妤
Chen, Sih-Yu |
| Keywords: | 浮動式離岸風電
技術預測
成長曲線
專利分析
floating offshore wind energy
technology forecasting
growth curves
patent analysis |
| Date: | 2023 |
| Issue Date: | 2023-12-01 11:56:23 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本研究利用專利數據以分析浮動式離岸風電技術進行，採用Logistic model和Gompertz model進行技術預測評估，藉由這兩種模型的分析，評估專利數據對於預測技術發展的適用性，並了解浮動式離岸風電技術的演進。
本研究首先使用Logistic model和Gompertz model進行技術預測，以評估兩模型對浮動式離岸風電技術領域的解釋能力，以確定何種模型更能準確預測該領域技術的發展趨勢。本研究將基於專利數據的相關指標，分析浮動式離岸風電領域的技術生命週期發展階段，藉此瞭解該技術的成長趨勢和關鍵發展階段，以提供政府或企業投入該領域的依據。本研究將探討專利分類號對浮動式離岸風電技術領域的分類，將有助於理解不同專利分類號在技術領域中的應用。
研究結果顯示在浮動式離岸風電領域中，Gompertz model在模型適配能力與預測能力皆能夠展現良好的表現績效。此外，浮動式離岸風電技術目前處於成長期中期皆段，仍存在快速成長的空間，因此專利申請量將持續性增加。最後，針對相關技術的開發，除了應用於浮動式離岸風電領域，未來亦將可能擴展至其他多種再生能源技術中，是能夠協助能源轉型與淨零排放目標的重要技術。
This study utilizes patent data to analyze the floating offshore wind energy technology. Logistic model and Gompertz model are applied for technology forecasting. Through these two models for analyzing, the study aims to comprehensively understand the domain of floating offshore wind energy technology through patent data analysis.
By using the Logistic model and Gompertz model for technology forecasting to assess the performance of both models within the field of floating offshore wind energy technology. This assessment aims to select which model accurately predicts the development and prospect of this domain. Based on patent data indicators, this study explores the various stages of the technological lifecycle in the floating offshore wind energy domain. This exploration observes the growth trends and the development stages of this technology, and providing a reference for the government or the corporate. The study also explores the patent classification codes of the categorization of floating offshore wind energy technology, and offering insights for the applications of different patent classification codes.
The result shows Gompertz model can fit the data of the floating offshore wind energy well. Furthermore, the technology of floating offshore wind energy currently reaches the middle of the growth stage. Consequently, patent applications are expected to increase continuously. Lastly, in addition to its application in the floating offshore wind energy domain, the development of the key technologies might extend to other renewable energy technologies. This expansion has the potential to promote the energy transition and make a significant contribution to achieving emissions reduction objective. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
科技管理與智慧財產研究所
110364125 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110364125 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [科技管理與智慧財產研究所] 學位論文
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