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Title:	臺灣廠商跨國直接投資選擇-新南向政策之影響 The Choice of Foreign Direct Investment of Taiwanese Firms–The Effect of New Southbound Policy
Authors:	徐祥耀 Hsu, Hsiang-Yao
Contributors:	洪福聲林朕陞徐祥耀 Hsu, Hsiang-Yao
Keywords:	新南向政策跨國直接投資 Panel ARDL New Southbound Policy Foreign Direct Investment Panel ARDL
Date:	2023
Issue Date:	2023-12-01 10:45:29 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	臺灣是一個小型的開放經濟體，與全球經濟關聯緊密。自1960年代以來，政府積極推動出口導向政策，迅速提升對外貿易，這已成為帶動臺灣經濟成長的重要動力。1990年代開放對中國投資以來，臺商對中國投資之金額及件數逐年增加。為避免對單一市場過度依賴，蔡英文總統於2016年8月通過「新南向政策」政策綱領。近年隨著中美貿易摩擦及歐美對中國關鍵經濟領域的投資及出口限制，加上中國內部經營環境的惡化，臺灣對中國的直接投資逐年下降，然而對東協等新南向國家投資則逐年成長。為探討在新南向國家中，臺商是考量哪些因素來選擇投資，本研究以1996年到2021年「臺灣對外直接投資金額」作為被解釋變數，「勞動人口」、「每百人行動電話用戶數」、「雙邊貿易金額」、「貪腐控制指數」及「貿易開放程度」作為解釋變數，以研究臺商對於泰國、越南、新加坡、馬來西亞、印尼、菲律賓、印度、澳洲等八個國家的投資考量因素，以及「新南向政策」之影響。我們首先驗證上述數變數之間是否存在長期均衡關係，然後在 Panel ARDL模型的架構下，以Hausman Test檢定MG (mean group) 與PMG (pooled mean group) 兩種估計法何者為佳，據此探究這些變數之間的長、短期關係；最後，我們以Granger因果關係檢定變數之間的因果關係。研究結果顯示，在長期下，「雙邊貿易金額」對「臺灣對外直接投資金額」呈顯著正向關係且存在單向因果關係；而「每百人行動電話用戶數」對「臺灣對外直接投資金額」呈顯著負向關係且存在單向因果關係。在短期下，「臺灣對外直接投資金額之落後1期」對「臺灣對外直接投資金額」呈顯著正向關係，「貿易開放程度落後1期」對「臺灣對外直接投資金額」呈顯著負向影響，但因果關係不顯著；而「新南向政策」對「臺灣對外直接投資金額」具有顯著的正向效果。 To avoid excessive dependence on a single market, President Tsai Ing-wen introduced the "New Southbound Policy" in August 2016. To explore the factors influencing Taiwanese businesses' investment choices among the New Southbound countries, this study uses the “Taiwan's outward foreign direct investment” from 1996 to 2021 as the dependent variable. The independent variables include the “labor force”, “bilateral trade amount”, “mobile phone users per hundred people”, “corruption control index”, and “trade openness level”. The study aims to investigate the factors considered by Taiwanese businesses when investing in eight ASEAN countries, as well as the impact of the "New Southbound Policy." We estimate the relationships between variables using a Panel ARDL model. We first verify if there is a long-term relationship among these variables, and then estimate this relationship by MG (mean group) and PMG (pooled mean group). Then, the Hausman Test is applied to determine the most suitable estimation method, which is MG. Finally, we employ the Granger causality test to draw causality conclusions. The results show that in the long term, there is a significant positive relationship and a one-way causal relationship between the “bilateral trade amount” and the “investment amount”, and a significant negative relationship and a one-way causal relationship between the “mobile phone users per hundred people” and the “Taiwan's outward FDI”. In the short term, there is a significant positive relationship between the “lagged Taiwan's outward FDI” and “Taiwan's outward FDI”, and “lagged Trade openness level” has a significant negative effect to the “Taiwan's outward FDI”, although the causal relationship is not significant. The dummy variable of the “New Southbound Policy” has a significant positive effect to “Taiwan's outward FDI”.
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Description:	碩士國立政治大學國際金融碩士學位學程 111ZB1015
Source URI:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111ZB1015
Data Type:	thesis
Appears in Collections:	[Master’s Program in Global Banking and Finance] Theses

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