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| Title: | 容積移轉訊息外溢效果對房屋價格的影響
The Impact of Transfer of Development Rights (TDR) Information Spillover Effect on Housing Prices |
| Authors: | 范凱閎
Fan, Kai-Hung |
| Contributors: | 陳國樑
羅時萬
范凱閎
Fan, Kai-Hung |
| Keywords: | 容積移轉
房價
外溢效果
差異中之差異
TDR
housing price
spillover effect
difference-in-differences |
| Date: | 2023 |
| Issue Date: | 2023-10-03 10:42:47 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 在住宅問題的討論當中，都市的高房價被視為實踐居住正義的一大阻礙。其中，容積移轉是一個經常被批評的政策工具，輿論經常指責容積移轉是助長高房價的幫兇。然而，對容積政策的批評缺乏量化的證據支持，以至於容積移入對房價的影響效果究竟為何，依舊眾說紛紜。
為了釐清來自容積移轉的容積移入訊息和房價的關係，本文透過普通最小平方法 (ordinary least square, OLS) 以及差異中之差異法 (difference-in-differences, DID) 分析臺北市自2012年第四季至2022年第四季的房屋交易資料，探討在短期內，房屋交易價格是否因為接受基地容積移入訊息產生之外溢效果 (spillover effect) 而發生顯著的變化。此外，本文進一步剖析外溢效果的細節，討論距離產生之外溢效果分布差異，以及因接受基地密集度差異產生之多重外溢效果對房價的影響。
實證結果顯示，外溢效果顯著地影響房價，約產生3~4%的溢價；DID的結果顯示外溢效果的溢價幅度達到4.1%；然而，去除多重外溢效果的結果顯示外溢效果不顯著。外溢效果的分布結果發現，分布確實有不均的現象；然而在去除多重外溢效果之後，即未發現有顯著的分布不均。
本文的研究結果表明，只有在接受基地群聚的情況下，容積移入訊息對房價才有影響，在接受基地群聚區域本身即為較高房價地區的情況下，容積移入讓本來房價已經較高的區域變得更高。
Housing prices are a highly concerning issue. Among them, transfer of development rights (TDR) is a policy tool that is frequently criticized, with public opinion often accusing TDR of exacerbating higher housing prices. However, the criticism of TDR lacks quantifiable evidence to support these claims.
To clarify the relationship between TDR information and housing prices, this study employs ordinary least squares (OLS) and difference-in-differences (DID) methods to analyze housing transaction data in Taipei City from 2012 to 2022. The study aims to explore whether there have been significant changes in housing prices in the short term due to spillover effects. Additionally, this research delves into the details of spillover effects by discussing the distribution of spillover effects based on distance and the impact of multiple spillover effects.
The empirical results indicate that spillover effects significantly impact housing prices, resulting in a premium of approximately 3% to 4%. DID analysis reveals that the magnitude of the spillover effect premium reaches 4.17%. However, the main reason is closely related to the density of receiving sites. When considering only the spillover effects resulting from distance, the results are not statistically significant. Furthermore, the distribution of spillover effects also shows that the uneven distribution is primarily attributed to the differences in the density of receiving sites.
The research findings of this study indicate that the impact of TDR information on housing prices only occurs when there is a clustering of receiving sites. Considering that the receiving site clusters are already in higher-priced areas, volume transfer leads to further increases in housing prices in these regions. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
110255025 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110255025 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [財政學系] 學位論文
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