Loading...
|
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/147327
|
| Title: | 烏克蘭安全政策之研究 — 新古典現實主義的視角
A Study on Ukraine’s Security Policy: A Neoclassical Realist Perspective |
| Authors: | 范姜承宏
Fan Chiang, Cheng-Hung |
| Contributors: | 林永芳
Lin, Yung-Fang
范姜承宏
Fan Chiang, Cheng-Hung |
| Keywords: | 威脅
戰略環境
抗衡
扈從
避險
threat
strategic environment
balancing
bandwagoning
hedging |
| Date: | 2023 |
| Issue Date: | 2023-09-01 16:35:36 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 1991年，持續長達近半世紀的冷戰因蘇聯解體而終結，前蘇聯的加盟國紛紛於這波浪潮中宣佈獨立，烏克蘭亦是其中之一。儘管烏克蘭成為一個新獨立的主權國家，其東側的最大鄰國、同時亦是蘇聯的最大繼承國—俄羅斯卻仍不時對其提出「準主權要求」，而於西側則要面對冷戰終結後仍不斷向東擴張的北大西洋公約組織。因此，對於烏克蘭這個「夾於兩強權之間的中小型國家」而言，獨立後的最大挑戰即是在無政府狀態且權力結構不斷變動的國際環境下維持生存與安全。隨著2014年克里米亞危機、頓巴斯衝突與2022年俄烏戰爭的爆發，上述挑戰則更加嚴峻。
本論文旨在以結合國際結構與國內分析層次的新古典現實主義作為理論架構，研究烏克蘭自獨立後至今六位總統的安全政策性質、轉變與延續。本論文指出，烏克蘭的六位總統都將俄羅斯視為威脅，差別僅在於此一威脅的清晰與緊迫程度，這反映於烏克蘭歷任總統在安全政策方面皆未曾「扈從」俄國，而是搖擺於對俄「抗衡」與「避險」之上。當來自俄羅斯的威脅較模糊、緩和時，烏克蘭的安全政策將主要受到國內而非結構因素的影響；而當來自俄羅斯的威脅轉趨清晰、緊迫時，烏克蘭的安全政策才將更傾向符合體系結構給予的刺激。
In 1991, the Cold War that had lasted for nearly half a century came to an end with the dissolution of the Soviet Union, leading to the declaration of independence by various Soviet republics, including Ukraine. Despite becoming a newly independent sovereign state, Ukraine found itself situated between two great powers. On Ukraine’s eastern side, its largest neighbor and the primary successor to the Soviet Union—Russian Federation—continued to assert “quasi-sovereign claims” over Ukraine. Meanwhile, on its western side, Ukraine faced the enlargement of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization following the end of the Cold War. Thus, for Ukraine—a medium-small state situated between two great powers—the key challenge after its independence was to ensure its survival and security within an international anarchy characterized by a continuously shifting power structure. This challenge intensified with the outbreak of events such as the 2014 Crimea crisis, the Donbas conflict, and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war.
By employing a neoclassical realist approach—a theoretical framework that combines international structural analysis and domestic analysis—this thesis aims to investigate the nature, change and continuity of Ukraine’s security policy under its six presidents since independence. The thesis argues that all six Ukrainian presidents have regarded Russia as a threat, differing primarily in the clarity and imminence of this threat. This argument is also reflected in the fact that none of the Ukrainian presidents elected after its independence have ever bandwagoned with Russia; instead, they have oscillated between “balancing” and “hedging” in their approach toward Russia. When threats from Russia are vague and less imminent, Ukraine’s security policy are primarily influenced by domestic factors rather than structural ones. However, when threats from Russia become clearer and more imminent, Ukraine’s security policy tends to be more responsive with the stimuli from the system structure. |
| Reference: | 一、中文部分
包宗和，2011，〈結構現實主義的論點、辯述與反思〉，包宗和（編），《國際關係理論》，臺北：五南出版，頁49-68。
甘逸驊，2003，〈北約東擴—軍事聯盟的變遷與政治意涵〉，《問題與研究》，42(4): 1-23。
吳日強，2007，〈美國在東歐部署反導彈系統針對誰？〉，《國際政治科學》，(3): 97-129。
吳玉山，1997，《抗衡或扈從—兩岸關係新詮》，臺北：正中書局。
吳玉山，2007，〈顏色革命的許諾與侷限〉，《臺灣民主季刊》，4(2): 67-112。
吳玉山，2016，〈半總統制與策略性修憲〉，《政治科學論叢》，(69): 1-26。
吳玉山，2020，〈我們與戰爭的距離有多遠？霸權間的小國戰略〉，中央研究院「研之有物」網頁，https://research.sinica.edu.tw/global-strategies-pivot-hedger-partner/，檢索日期：2023/06/24。
吳崇涵，2018，〈中美競逐影響力下的臺灣避險策略〉，《歐美研究》，48(4): 513-547。
吳叡人譯，2010，《想像的共同體：民族主義的起源與散布》，臺北：時報出版。譯自Benedict Anderson. Imagined Communities: Reflections on the Origin and Spread of Nationalism. London/New York: Verso. 2006.
李秀蛟，2015，〈淺析烏克蘭寡頭現象〉，《俄羅斯東歐中亞研究》，2015(2): 30-39。
倪世雄，2010，《當代國際關係理論》，臺北：五南出版。
崔琳，2012，〈俄羅斯對獨立國協的外交政策〉，林碧炤、鄧中堅（編），《金磚國家之俄羅斯及歐亞地區研究》，臺北：五南出版，頁7-44。
崔進揆，2022，〈俄烏衝突（2021-2022）：俄羅斯政府強制外交的運用〉，《全球政治評論》，(78): 1-7。
畢洪業，2021，〈烏克蘭寡頭政治體制：形成、特徵及影響〉，《俄羅斯學刊》，11(65): 27-44。
莊永豪，2021，《烏克蘭寡頭政治與民主制度發展—1991-2019年》，新北：淡江大學歐洲研究所碩士論文。
莫大華，2003，〈理性主義與建構主義的辯論：國際關係理論的另一次大辯論？〉，《政治科學論叢》，19: 113-138。
莫大華，2011，〈國際關係後現代建構主義理論的知識論立場〉，包宗和（編），《國際關係理論》，臺北：五南出版，頁205-233。
許菁芸，2013，〈俄羅斯半總統制下普金歸位與民主發展之探討〉，《臺灣民主季刊》，10(4): 49-92。
連弘宜，2012，〈俄喬衝突前後俄羅斯與北約關係之研究〉，林碧炤、鄧中堅（編），《金磚國家之俄羅斯及歐亞地區研究》，臺北：五南出版，頁45-77。
連弘宜，2017，《普京時期的俄羅斯對外政策：實用主義與民族主義的衝突與融合》，臺北：五南出版。
陳麒安，2013，〈新自由主義與後冷戰時期北約的存續：安全治理的觀點〉，《全球政治評論》，43: 113-134。
曾毅、蔡耀緯譯，2022，《烏克蘭：從帝國邊疆到獨立民族，追尋自我的荊棘之路》，臺北：聯經出版。譯自Serhii Plokhy. The Gates of Europe: A History of Ukraine. New York: Basic Books. 2021.
楊三億，2018a，〈烏克蘭安全策略選擇：內部因素分析〉，《問題與研究》，57(1): 1-28。
楊三億，2018b，〈中小型國家的安全策略及其路徑演變：以塞爾維亞、亞美尼亞與烏克蘭為例〉，《政治科學論叢》，78: 105-136。
廖舜右，2016，〈現實主義〉，張亞中、張登及（編），《國際關係總論》，新北：揚智文化，頁35-70。
廖舜右、蔡松伯，2013，〈新古典現實主義與外交政策分析的再連結〉，《問題與研究》，52(3): 43-61。
趙竹成，2017，〈徘徊在歸附與自決之間—烏克蘭東部與克里米亞的選擇〉，洪泉湖（編），《當代歐洲民族運動：從蘇格蘭獨立公投到克里米亞危機》，臺北：聯經出版，頁101-128。
蔡榮祥、石鵬翔，2011，〈總理總統制與政治穩定：以烏克蘭、羅馬尼亞為例〉，《政治科學論叢》，(47): 65-106。
鄭端耀，2011，〈搶救權力平衡理論〉，包宗和（編），《國際關係理論》，臺北：五南出版，頁69-83。
薛健吾，2016，〈抗衡或扈從：14個歐亞國家對俄國外交政策選擇的再檢視〉，《東吳政治學報》，34(3): 121-178。
譚偉恩，2006，〈權力平衡理論之研究：現實主義的觀點〉，《國際關係學報》，22: 129-165。
二、英文部分
“The Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation.” in http://en.kremlin.ru/supplement/4116. Accessed on June 5 2023.
Associated Press. 2008. “Russia FM: Moscow Will Do All It Can to Prevent NATO Membership for Ukraine, Georgia.” Associated Press April 8 2008.
Associated Press. 2018. “Ukraine Pushes ahead with Plans to Secure NATO Membership.” in https://apnews.com/article/dff40992fcc446f6808d02d03b35e4bc. Accessed on 20 June 2023.
Associated Press. 2019. “Ukraine President Signs Amendment on NATO, EU Membership.” in https://apnews.com/article/cb742d45ae394798bbc7891d30efaa71. Accessed on 20 June 2023.
Balmforth, T. 2022. “Ukraine Applies for NATO Membership, Rules out Putin Talks.” in https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy-says-ukraine-applying-nato-membership-2022-09-30/. Accessed on 28 June 2023.
BBC. 2014a. “Ukraine: Speaker Oleksandr Turchynov Named Interim President.” in https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26312008. Accessed on 19 June 2023.
BBC. 2014b. “Ukraine Crisis: Nato Images ‘Show Russia Troops’.” in https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28972878. Accessed on 20 June 2023.
BBC. 2014c. “Ukraine to Seek Nato Membership, Says PM Yatsenyuk.” in https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28978699. Accessed on 20 June 2023.
BBC. 2015. “Putin Reveals Secrets of Russia’s Crimea Takeover Plot.” in https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31796226. Accessed on 17 June 2023.
BBC. 2016. “Ukraine Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk to Resign.” in https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36010511. Accessed on 26 June 2023.
Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation. “Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I)” in https://armscontrolcenter.org/strategic-arms-reduction-treaty-start-i/. Accessed on 22 March 2023.
Center for Peace Conversion and Foreign Policy of Ukraine. 2000. “Monitoring Foreign and Security Policy of Ukraine.” in https://armscontrolcenter.org/strategic-arms-reduction-treaty-start-i/. Accessed on 22 March 2023.
Chawryło, K. & T. Iwański. 2019. “No Breakthrough at the Normandy Four Summit in Paris.” in https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2019-12-10/no-breakthrough-normandy-four-summit-paris. Accessed on 29 June 2023.
Chudowsky, V. & T. Kuzio. 2003. “Does Public Opinion Matter in Ukraine? The Case of Foreign Policy.” Communist and Post-Communist Studies 36(3): 273-290.
Chudowsky, V. 2002. “The Limits of Realism: Ukrainian Policy toward the CIS.” In Ukrainian Foreign and Security Policy: Theoretical and Comparative Perspectives, eds. Moroney, Jennifer D. P., Taras Kuzio & Mikhail Molchanov. Connecticut: Praeger Publishers, 11-36.
D’Anieri, P. & T. Kuzio. 2017. “Public Opinion and Ukrainian Foreign Policy.” In National Security, Public Opinion and Regime Asymmetry: A Six-Country Study, eds. Tun-jen Cheng & Wei-chin Lee. Singapore: World Scientific Publishing, 115-146.
D’Anieri, P. 1999. “Foreign Policy: From Isolation to Engagement.” In Politics and Society in Ukraine, eds. D’Anieri, Paul, Robert Kravchuk & Taras Kuzio. New York: Routledge, 206-232.
D’Anieri, P. 2007. Understanding Ukraine Politics: Power Politics, and Institutional Design. New York: M.E. Sharpe.
D’Anieri, P. 2012. “Ukrainian Foreign Policy from Independence to Inertia.” Communist and Post-Communist Studies 45(2012): 447-456.
D’Anieri, P. 2019a. “Gerrymandering Ukraine? Electoral Consequences of Occupation.” East European Politics and Society 33(1): 89-108.
D’Anieri, P. 2019b. Ukraine and Russia: From Civilized Divorce to Uncivil War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
D’Anieri, P. 2023. Ukraine and Russia: From Civilized Divorce to Uncivil War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. (Second Edition)
Devitt, P. 2014. “Lavrov Accuses West of Seeking ‘Regime Change’ in Russia.” in https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSKCN0J609G20141122. Accessed on 16 June 2023.
Dragneva, R. & K. Wolczuk. 2015. Ukraine Between the EU and Russia: The Integration Challenge. London: Palgrave Pivot.
Edinger, H. 2022. “Offensive Ideas: Structural Realism, Classical Realism and Putin`s War on Ukraine.” International Affairs 98(6): 1873-1893.
Eichler, J. 2021. NATO’s Expansion after the Cold War: Geopolitics and Impacts for International Security. Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland AG.
Faulconbridge, G. “Ukraine War, Already with up to 354,000 Casualties, Likely to Last past 2023 - U.S. Documents.” in https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-war-already-with-up-354000-casualties-likely-drag-us-documents-2023-04-12/. Accessed on 30 June 2023.
Fomenko, O. 2023. “Brand New Ukraine? Cultural Icons and National Identity in Times of War.” Place Branding and Public Diplomacy 19: 223-227.
Franekova, A. 2002. “Uneasy Expansion: NATO and Russia.” Harvard International Review 24(3): 10-11.
Fukuyama, F. 1989. “The End of History?” The National Interest 16: 3-18.
Getmanchuk, A. 2020. “Russia as Aggressor, NATO as Objective: Ukraine’s New National Security Strategy.” in https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/russia-as-aggressor-nato-as-objective-ukraines-new-national-security-strategy/. Accessed on 22 June 2023.
Gidadhubli, R. G. 2004. “Expansion of NATO: Russia’s Dilemma.” Economic and Political Weekly 39(19): 1885-1887.
Gnedia, E. 2015. “‘Multi-Vector’ Foreign Policies in Europe: Balancing, Bandwagoning or Bargaining?” Europe-Asia Studies 67(7): 1007-1029.
Gorchinskaya, K. 2020. “A Brief History of Corruption in Ukraine: the Kuchma Era.” Eurasianet. in https://eurasianet.org/a-brief-history-of-corruption-in-ukraine-the-kuchma-era. Accessed on 27 April 2023.
Gretskiy, I. 2013. “Ukraine’s Foreign Policy under Yushchenko.” Polish Quarterly of International Affairs 22(4): 7-28.
Haran, O. & R. Pavlenko. 2003. “The Paradoxes of Kuchma’s Russian Policy.” PONARS Policy Memo 291.
Indyk, J. 2017. “Oligarchy and its Impact on Foreign Policy – Ukraine’s case.” World Scientific News 72: 235-241.
International Crisis Group. 2023. “Conflict in Ukraine’s Donbas: A Visual Explainer.” in https://www.crisisgroup.org/content/conflict-ukraines-donbas-visual-explainer. Accessed on 17 June 2023.
International Republican Institute. 2021. “Public Opinion Survey of Residents of Ukraine.” in https://www.iri.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/public_-_03.2021_national_eng-_public.pdf. Accessed on 26 June 2023.
Kas`ianov, G. 2010. “The Holodomor and the Building of a Nation.” Russian Politics & Law 48(5): 25-47.
Kemp, T. 2022. “Two maps show NATO’s growth — and Russia’s isolation — since 1990.” in https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/19/two-maps-show-natos-growth-and-russias-growing-isolation-since-1990.html. Accessed on 05 January 2023.
KIIS. 2022a. “Readiness for Territorial Concessions to End the War as Soon as Possible.” in https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=reports&id=1111&page=1&y=2022&m=5. Accessed on 30 June 2023.
KIIS. 2022b. “Geopolitical Orientations of Residents of Ukraine: Results of a Telephone Survey Conducted on July 6-20, 2022.” in https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=reports&id=1125&page=1&t=3. Accessed on 30 June 2023.
Kitchen, N. 2010. “System Pressures and Domestic Ideas: A Neoclassical Realist Model of Grand Strategy Formation.” Review of International Studies 36(1): 117-143.
Klymenko, L. 2020. “The Role of Historical Narratives in Ukraine’s Policy toward the EU and Russia.” International Politics 57: 973-989.
Konończuk, W. 2016. Keystone of the System: Old and New Oligarchs in Ukraine. Warsaw: Centre for Eastern Studies (Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich).
Kramer, M. 2008. “Russian Policy toward the Commonwealth of Independent States: Recent Trends and Future Prospects.” Problems of Post-Communism 55(6): 3-19.
Kropatcheva, E. 2011. “Ukraine`s Foreign Policy Choices after the 2010 Presidential Election.” Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics 27(3-4): 520-540.
Krushelnycky, A. 2003. “Russia/Ukraine: Dispute Over Dam Creating Reservoir of Ill Feelings.” Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty. in https://www.rferl.org/a/1104749.html. Accessed on 17 April 2023.
Kuik, C. C. 2008. “The Essence of Hedging: Malaysia and Singapore`s Response to a Rising China.” Contemporary Southeast Asia: A Journal of International and Strategic Affairs 30(2): 159-185.
Kulyk, V. 2016. “National Identity in Ukraine: Impact of Euromaidan and the War.” Europe-Asia Studies 68(4): 588–607.”
Kuzio, T. & J. D. P. Moroney. 2001. “Ukraine and the West: Moving from Stability to Strategic Engagement.” European Security 10(2): 111-126.
Kuzio, T. 2002. “European, Eastern Slavic, and Eurasian: National Identity, Transformation, and Ukrainian Foreign Policy.” In Ukrainian Foreign and Security Policy: Theoretical and Comparative Perspectives, eds. Moroney, Jennifer D. P., Taras Kuzio & Mikhail Molchanov. Connecticut: Praeger Publishers, 197-226.
Kuzio, T. 2005. “Neither East nor West: Ukraine’s Security Policy under Kuchma.” Problems of Post-Communism 52(5): 59-68.
Kuzio, T. 2006. “Conflict and Reform in Eastern Europe: Ukrainian Foreign and Security Policy since the Orange Revolution.” The International Spectator 41(4): 25-42.
Kuzio, T. 2012a. “Ukraine’s Relations with the West since the Orange Revolution.” European Security 21(3): 395-413.
Kuzio, T. 2012b. “Russianization of Ukrainian National Security Policy under Viktor Yanukovych.” The Journal of Slavic Military Studies 25(4): 558-581.
Kuzio, T. 2013. “Yushchenko versus Tymoshenko: Why Ukraine’s National Democrats are Divided.” Demokratizatsiya 21(2): 215-240.
Kyiv Post. 2014. “Lavrov Accuses US, EU of Trying to Foment ‘Colored Revolution’ in Ukraine.” in https://archive.kyivpost.com/article/content/war-against-ukraine/lavrov-accuses-us-eu-of-trying-to-foment-colored-revolution-in-ukraine-344874.html. Accessed on 16 June 2023.
LaFraniere, S. 2001. “Ukraine Ousts Prime Minister.” the Washington Post. In https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2001/04/27/ukraine-ousts-prime-minister/bb1000b9-dd5d-488d-afa1-334ae089ee65/ Accessed on 17 April 2023.
Lake, D. A. 2007. “Escape from the State of Nature: Authority and Hierarchy in World Politics.” International Security 32(1): 47-79.
Legucka, A. 2017. “The NATO-Ukraine Relations after the Annexation of Crimea.” Ukraine Analytica 2(8): 42-49.
Leshchenko, S. 2016. “Return to ‘The Family’: Poroshenko Building Clan Rule.” in https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/columns/2016/07/23/7117211/. Accessed on 27 June 2023.
Lim, D. J. & Z. Cooper. 2015. “Reassessing Hedging: The Logic of Alignment in East Asia.” Security Studies 24(4), 696-727.
Lister, T. 2022. “What is the Minsk Agreement and is it a Way out of Ukraine Crisis?” in https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/09/europe/minsk-agreement-ukraine-russia-explainer-intl/index.html. Accessed on 18 June 2023.
Lough, J. & H. Shelest. 2019. “Security Policy is not up for Debate as Ukraine Elects a New President.” in https://www.chathamhouse.org/2019/04/security-policy-not-debate-ukraine-elects-new-president. Accessed on 27 June 2023.
Makhorkina, A. 2007. “Ukrainian Political Parties and Foreign Policy in Election Campaigns: The Parliamentary Elections of 1998 and 2002.” In Aspect of the Orange Revolution I, eds. D’Anieri, Paul & Taras Kuzio. Stuttgart: ibidem-Verlag, 175-197.
Malek, M. 2009. “The ‘Western Vector’ of the Foreign and Security Policy of Ukraine: Continuities and Ruptures under President Viktor Yushchenko (2005-2009).” Journal of Slavic Military Studies 22(4): 515-542.
Mandelbaum, M. 1995. “Preserving the New Peace: The Case against NATO Expansion.” Foreign Affairs 74: 9-13.
Marten, K. 2018. “Reconsidering NATO Expansion: A Counterfactual Analysis of Russia and the West in the 1990s.” European Journal of International Security 3(2): 135-161.
McFaul, M., S. Sestanovich, & J. J. Mearsheimer. 2014. “Faulty Powers: Who Started the Ukraine Crisis?” Foreign Affairs 93(6): 167-178.
Mearsheimer, J. J. 2014. “Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West’s Fault: The Liberal Delusions that Provoked Putin.” Foreign Affairs 93(5): 77-89.
Mearsheimer, J. J. 2015. “The Causes and Consequences of the Ukraine Crisis.” Discussed in 2015 UnCommon Core lecture, June 4. University of Chicago. in https://alumniandfriends.uchicago.edu/s/uchicago-review-story/a4X1U000000HnuJUAS/the-causes-and-consequences-of-the-ukraine-crisis. Accessed on 5 June 2023.
Mearsheimer, J. J. 2022. “The Causes and Consequences of the Ukrainian War.” in https://www.russiamatters.org/analysis/causes-and-consequences-ukraine-war. Accessed on 14 June 2023.
Medvedev, D. A. 2009. “Address to the President of Ukraine Victor Yushchenko.” in https://web.archive.org/web/20090815110536/http://www.kremlin.ru/eng/text/docs/2009/08/220759.shtml. Accessed on 20 May 2023.
Mefford, B. 2015. “Poroshenko Goes Hunting for Oligarchs.” in https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/poroshenko-goes-hunting-for-oligarchs/. Accessed on 26 June 2023.
Miller, C. 2019. “Explainer: What is The Steinmeier Formula – and Did Zelenskiy Just Capitulate to Moscow?” in https://www.rferl.org/a/what-is-the-steinmeier-formula-and-did-zelenskiy-just-capitulate-to-moscow-/30195593.html. Accessed on 28 June 2023.
Mitchell, S. ML. & J. A. Vasquez. “What Do We Know about War?” In What Do We Know about War?, eds. Sara McLaughlin Mitchell & John Vasquez. Maryland: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 319-342.
Motyl, A. J. 2010. “Deleting the Holodomor: Ukraine Unmakes Itself.” World Affairs 173(3): 25-33.
Myers, S. L. 2014. “Violence in Ukraine Creates Deepening Clash Between East and West.” The New York Times in https://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/20/world/europe/violence-in-ukraine-creates-deepening-clash-between-east-and-west.html. Accessed on 16 June 2023.
NATO. “Collective Defence and Article 5.” in https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm. Latest Update on 14 April 2023. Accessed on 19 June 2023.
NATO. 2008. “Bucharest Summit Declaration.” in https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_8443.htm. Accessed on 5 June 2023.
NATO. 2016a. “Warsaw Summit Communiqué: Issued by the Heads of State and Government Participating in the Meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Warsaw 8-9 July 2016.” in https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_133169.htm. Accessed on 20 June 2023.
NATO. 2016b. “Comprehensive Assistance Package for Ukraine.” in https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/pdf_2016_09/20160920_160920-compreh-ass-package-ukraine-en.pdf. Accessed on 20 June 2023.
NATO. 2021. “Brussels Summit Communiqué: Issued by the Heads of State and Government Participating in the Meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Brussels 14 June 2021.” in https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_185000.htm. Accessed on 22 June 2023.
Oberdorfer, D. 1992. “Ukraine Agrees to Eliminate Nuclear Arms.” the Washington Post. In https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1992/05/07/ukraine-agrees-to-eliminate-nuclear-arms/9a7286af-ee77-43a5-8fec-b462b1f199ba/. Accessed on 14 April 2023.
Odey, S. A. & S. A. Bassey. 2022. “Ukrainian Foreign Policy toward Russia between 1991 and 2004: the Start of the Conflict.” Journal of Liberty and International Affairs 8(2): 346-361.
Office of the Press Secretary. 2012. “Readout of the President’s Call with President-Elect Putin.” in https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2012/03/09/readout-president-s-call-president-elect-putin. Accessed on 5 June 2023.
OHCHR. 2023. “Ukraine: Civilian Casualty Update 5 June 2023.” in https://www.ohchr.org/en/news/2023/06/ukraine-civilian-casualty-update-5-june-2023. Accessed on 30 June 2023.
Pifer, S. 2019a. “Ukraine: Looking forward, Five Years after the Maidan Revolution.” in https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2019/02/22/ukraine-looking-forward-five-years-after-the-maidan-revolution/. Accessed on 27 June 2023.
Pifer, S. 2019b. “Five Key Things to Know about Ukraine’s Presidential Election.” in https://www.brookings.edu/articles/five-key-things-to-know-about-ukraines-presidential-election/. Accessed on 28 June 2023.
Pifer, S. 2021. “Russia’s Draft Agreements with NATO and the United States: Intended for Rejection?” in https://www.brookings.edu/articles/russias-draft-agreements-with-nato-and-the-united-states-intended-for-rejection/. Accessed on 29 June 2023.
Piper, E. & Y. Kulikov. 2008. “Ukraine Condemns Russia`s Move on Georgia Regions.” in https://www.reuters.com/article/us-georgia-ossetia-ukraine-interview-idUSLR66952420080827. Accessed on 24 June 2023.
Pleines, H. 2016. “Oligarchs and Politics in Ukraine.” Democratization 24(1): 105-127.
Polityuk, P. & N. Zinets. 2017. “Pledging Reforms by 2020, Ukraine Seeks Route into NATO.” in https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-nato-idUSKBN19V12V. Accessed on 20 June 2023.
Polityuk, P. 2014. “PM Tells Ukrainians: No NATO Membership, Armed Groups to Disarm.” in https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-ukraine-crisis-nato-idUKBREA2H0DO20140318. Accessed on 20 June 2023.
Polityuk, P. 2021. “Zelenskiy to Biden: Give Us Clear ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ on Ukraine NATO Path.” in https://www.reuters.com/world/zelenskiy-asks-us-clarity-nato-membership-plan-ukraine-2021-06-14/. Accessed on 22 June 2023.
President of Russia. 2009. “Address to the President of Ukraine Victor Yushchenko.” in https://web.archive.org/web/20090815110536/http://www.kremlin.ru/eng/text/docs/2009/08/220759.shtml. Accessed on 16 July 2023.
President of Ukraine. 2021. “Interview of the President of Ukraine for the Axios Program Broadcast on the HBO Platform.” in https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/intervyu-prezidenta-ukrayini-programi-axios-sho-vihodit-na-p-66313. Accessed on 22 June 2023.
Prizel, I. 1998. National Identity and Foreign Policy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Puglisi, R. 2003. “The Rise of Ukrainian Oligarchs.” Democratization 10(3): 99-123.
Puglisi, R. 2008. “A Windows to the World? Oligarchs and Foreign Policy in Ukraine.” Chaillot Papers 108: 55-86.
Pushkov, A. K. 1997. “Don’t Isolate Us: A Russian View of NATO Expansion.” The National Interest (47): 58-63.
Putin, V. V. 2007. “Speech and the Following Discussion at the Munich Conference on Security Policy.” in http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/24034. Accessed on 5 June 2023.
Putin, V. V. 2021. “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians.” in http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181. Accessed on 14 June 2023.
Ray, J. 2015. “Ukrainians Disillusioned with Leadership.” in https://news.gallup.com/poll/187931/ukrainians-disillusioned-leadership.aspx. Accessed on 26 June 2023.
Reuters. 2014. “Ukraine Parliament Votes in favor of Return to Old Constitution.” in https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-constitution-idUSBREA1K17420140221. Accessed on 19 June 2023.
Reuters. 2021. “Russia Urges NATO to Break Promise to Ukraine as Part of Security Package.” in https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-demands-rescinding-nato-promise-ukraine-georgia-2021-12-10/. Accessed on 29 June 2023.
RFERL. 2014. “New Ukraine Coalition Agreed, Sets NATO As Priority.” in https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-parliament-coalition-agreement/26703123.html. Accessed on 20 June 2023.
RFERL. 2017. “Ukrainian Parliament Makes NATO Integration a Priority.” in https://www.rferl.org/a/ukriane-parliament-nato-integration-priority/28535650.html. Accessed on 20 June 2023.
Ripsman, N. L., J. W. Taliaferro, & S. E. Lobell. 2016. Neoclassical Realist Theory of International Politics. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Rogoża, J. 2023. “New Ukraine: A Breakthrough at Great Cost.” in https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2023-02-22/new-ukraine-a-breakthrough-great-cost. Accessed on 30 June 2023.
Rose, G. 1998. “Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy.” World Politics 51(1): 144-172.
Schweller, R. L. 2004. “Unanswered Threats: A Neoclassical Realist Theory of Underbalancing.” International Security 29(2): 159-201.
Shuster, S. 2022. “The Untold Story of the Ukraine Crisis.” in https://time.com/magazine/europe/6144693/february-14th-2022-vol-199-no-5-europe/. Accessed on 22 June 2023.
Shyrokykh, K. 2018. “The Evolution of the Foreign Policy of Ukraine: External Actors and Domestic Factors.” Europe-Asia Studies 70(5): 832-850.
Skorkin, K. 2021. “Zelensky Wages War on Ukraine’s Oligarchs.” in https://carnegiemoscow.org/commentary/85128. Accessed on 28 June 2023.
Socor, V. 2008. “Putin Warns Ukraine against Seeking NATO Membership.” Eurasia Daily Monitor 5(29). in https://jamestown.org/program/putin-warns-ukraine-against-seeking-nato-membership/. Accessed on 5 June 2023.
Sorokin, O. 2019. “What is the ‘Steinmeier Formula’ and Why are so Many Ukrainians against it?” in https://www.kyivpost.com/post/7549. Accessed on 28 June 2023.
Stoner, K. E. 2021. Russia Resurrected: Its Power and Purpose in a New Global Order. New York: Oxford University Press.
Taliaferro, J. W. 2006. “State Building for Future War: Neoclassical Realism and the Extractive State.” Security Studies 15(3): 464-495.
TASS. 2014. “Ukraine’s Non-bloc Status Cancelled, Referendum on NATO Accession due in 5-6 Years.” in https://tass.com/world/769788. Accessed on 20 June 2023.
Taylor, A. 2022. “Russia’s Attack on Ukraine Came after Months of Denials It Would Attack.” in https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/24/ukraine-russia-denials/. Accessed on 29 June 2023.
the Kremlin. 2022. “Address by the President of the Russian Federation.” in http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67843. Accessed on 29 June 2023.
Treisman, D. 2018. “Crimea: Anatomy of a Decision.” In The New Autocracy: Information, Politics and Policy in Putin’s Russia, ed. Daniel Treisman. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 277-298.
Trenin, D. 2009. “Russia’s Spheres of Interest, not Influence.” The Washington Quarterly 32(4): 3-22.
Trenin, D. 2010. “The Initial Outcomes of the Foreign Policy of Viktor Yanukovych.” in https://carnegiemoscow.org/2010/06/04/initial-outcomes-of-foreign-policy-of-viktor-yanukovych-pub-40946. Accessed on 5 June 2023.
Tsygankov, A. P. & P. A. Tsygankov. 2021. “Constructing National Values: The Nationally Distinctive Turn in Russian IR Theory and Foreign Policy.” Foreign Policy Analysis 17(4): 1-20.
Tsygankov, A. P. 2015. “Vladimir Putin’s Last Stand: The Sources of Russia`s Ukraine Policy.” Post-Soviet Affairs 31(4): 279-303.
Tsygankov, A. P. 2022. Russia’s Foreign Policy: Change and Continuity in National Identity. Maryland: Rowman & Littlefield.
Walt, S. M. 1987. The Origins of Alliances. New York: Cornell University Press.
Waltz, K. N. 2010. Theory of International Politics. Illinois: Waveland Press.
Wendt, A. 1999. Social Theory of International Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
White, S. & V. Feklyunina. 2014. Identities and Foreign Policies in Russia, Ukraine and Belarus: The Other Europes. London: Palgrave Macmillan.
Wilson, A. 2005. Ukraine’s Orange Revolution. New Haven and London: Yale University Press.
Wolczuk, K. & H. Shelest. 2020. “Could Zelenskyy’s Strategy for Donbas Lead Ukraine into a Kremlin Trap?” in https://www.chathamhouse.org/2020/02/could-zelenskyys-strategy-donbas-lead-ukraine-kremlin-trap. Accessed on 28 June 2023.
Yanukovych, V. V. 2010. “President Victor Yanukovych’s Feb. 25 Inaugural Speech in Parliament.” Kyiv Post February 25. in https://archive.kyivpost.com/article/content/ukraine-politics/president-victor-yanukovychs-feb-25-inaugural-spee-60475.html. Accessed on June 5 2023.
Yost, D. S. 2015. “The Budapest Memorandum and Russia’s Intervention in Ukraine.” International Affairs 91(3): 505-538.
Zinets, N. 2021. “Ukraine Sanctions Kremlin Ally Medvedchuk, Says Will Take Back Fuel Pipeline.” in https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-sanctions-idUSKBN2AJ28O. Accessed on 23 June 2023.
三、烏文部分
Верховна Рада України. 2019. “Конституція України.” in https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/254к/96-вр/ed20190221#Text. Accessed on 20 June 2023.
Президент України. 2020. “Указ Президента України №392/2020: Про Рішення Ради Національної Безпеки і Оборони України від 14 Вересня 2020 Року «Про Стратегію Національної Безпеки України».” in https://www.president.gov.ua/documents/3922020-35037. Accessed on 22 June 2023.
ЦВКУ. 2014. “Протокол Центральної Виборчої Комісії про Результати Виборів Президента України.” in https://cvk.gov.ua/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/protokol_cvk_25052014.pdf. Accessed on 27 June 2023.
四、俄文部分
Кремль. 2022а. “Подписание Документов о Признании Донецкой и Луганской Народных Республик.” in http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67829. Accessed on 18 June 2023.
Кремль. 2022б. “Подписание Договоров о Принятии ДНР, ЛНР, Запорожской и Херсонской Областей в Состав России.” in http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67829. Accessed on 18 June 2023.
Кремль. 2022в. “Обращение Президента Российской Федерации.” in http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/statements/67843. Accessed on 29 June 2023.
Путин, В. В. 2007. “Выступление и Дискуссия на Мюнхенской Конференции по Вопросам Политики Безопасности.” in http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/24034. Accessed on 5 June 2023.
Путин, В. В. 2014. “Обращение Президента Российской Федерации: Владимир Путин Выступил в Кремле перед Депутатами Государственной Думы, Членами Совета Федерации, Руководителями Регионов России и Представителями Гражданского Общества.” in http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/20603. Accessed on 18 June 2023.
Путин, В. В. 2022. “Обращение Президента Российской Федерации.” in http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67843. Accessed on 29 March 2023.
РБК. 2021. “МИД Раскрыл Требования России к США по Гарантиям Безопасности.” in https://www.rbc.ru/politics/17/12/2021/61bc677a9a794774aa95d5bd. Accessed on 29 June 2023. |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
俄羅斯研究所
110263001 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110263001 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [俄羅斯研究所] 學位論文
|
Files in This Item:
| File |
Description |
Size | Format | |
|---|
| 300101.pdf | | 2847Kb | Adobe PDF2 | 115 | View/Open |
|
All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.
|
