政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/147228

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Title:	避險的終結？中美競爭下的東協國家避險策略發展 The Ending of Hedging ? ASEAN Countries Strategy under China-US Competition
Authors:	郭淨源 Kuo, Chin-Yuan
Contributors:	薛健吾 Hsueh, Chien-Wu 郭淨源 Kuo, Chin-Yuan
Keywords:	中美競爭避險大數據兩財貨理論東協十國 China-USA competition Hedging Big Data two-good theory Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
Date:	2023
Issue Date:	2023-09-01 16:11:02 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	在當代國際關係的研究討論中，「避險策略」是中小型國家在大國間左右逢源的最佳選擇，既能保障經濟持續成長，又能在不確定的國際情勢中確保國家安全。不過隨著中國及美國之間的衝突日益增長，國際局勢出現重大的轉變。面對中美間「和而不同、鬥而不破」的新環境下，中小型國家是否還可以維持既有的避險策略便是本研究最主要解決的問題。為回答此問題，本研究首先透過兩財貨理論的分析，將文獻中模糊的避險策略定義為國家追求自主性的維持現狀策略。在既有文獻分析下，當大國競爭激烈時中小國將無法維持避險策略。然而本研究發現，在大國競爭下美國對於東協國家的壓力日漸增長，而中小國家仍然試圖維持國家的自主性，因此採取改變既有的避險策略，出現在口頭上配合美國對中國更為強勢的態度，但對中國的實際衝突卻出現減少。來自東協十國自2001～2021的行為大數據分析支持了本文的論點。 In contemporary international relations studies, the “hedging strategy” is optimal for small and medium-sized countries to ensure economic growth and safeguard national security amid an uncertain global environment. However, the increasing China-US conflict has significantly altered the international landscape. This study investigates whether countries can maintain their hedging strategies in light of these changes. The study clarifies the inconsistent definition of the hedging strategy, defining it as “a country`s pursuit of autonomy to maintain the status quo.” drawing on the two-good theory. Existing literature suggests that small countries cannot maintain their hedging strategies during intense great power competition. However, this study found that under the competition between major powers, the pressure from the United States on ASEAN countries is increasing. Despite this, small and medium-sized countries still attempt to preserve national autonomy. Consequently, they adopt a modified hedging strategy, verbally aligning with the United States stronger stance against China while reducing actual conflicts with China. Big data from the behaviors of ten ASEAN countries between 2001 and 2021 supports the arguments presented in this study.
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Description:	碩士國立政治大學東亞研究所 108260015
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