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    Title: 俄羅斯遭逐出SWIFT系統之成效探討
    Discussion on the Effectiveness of Russian Expulsion from the SWIFT System
    Authors: 蔡頌偉
    Cai, Song-Wei
    Contributors: 黃明聖
    Huang, Ming-Sheng
    蔡頌偉
    Cai, Song-Wei
    Keywords: 俄羅斯
    金融制裁
    環球銀行金融電信協會 (SWIFT)
    Date: 2023
    Issue Date: 2023-08-02 14:18:39 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭引發了歐美國家聯手,將俄羅斯銀行逐出國際支付系統「環球銀行金融電信協會 (SWIFT)」,並實施其他經濟制裁。本文主要探討制裁對俄羅斯金融及經濟所造成的影響。透過金融制裁打擊俄羅斯,預期使俄羅斯的銀行擠兌、盧布重貶,金融系統瀕臨癱瘓。因此俄羅斯企業就無法像過去一樣便利,進行跨國資金移轉。
    本研究以質化分析的方式,並透過文獻整理歸納出訪談問題,進行深度訪談。結果發現,俄羅斯從受到制裁開始 (1) SWIFT制裁對俄羅斯金融體系影響成效不如預期,因俄羅斯僅有10家銀行受到SWIFT逐出。俄羅斯國內還有約300多家銀行可以使用SWIFT系統,所以對俄羅斯的金融業務並未帶來太大的影響。(2)俄羅斯2022年GDP僅萎縮2.1%,並不如外界原本預期的會大幅萎縮。因俄羅斯央行事前採取有效的因應措施,已有效緩解金融衝擊。雖受西方國家抵制,但俄羅斯將能源轉而出口至中國、印度等亞洲國家,其能源出口收入仍算豐厚,且天然氣的結算改以盧布進行交易,緩解了出口遭制裁受到的衝擊。
    然而受制裁的影響,本國人才逃離,大量外國公司的自動撤離,歐盟已逐步與俄羅斯的能源脫鉤,以及俄羅斯無法在其他地方找到像歐盟的大市場,長期將對俄羅斯經濟造成損害。
    Reference: 中文部分
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    簡國帆 (2022),「俄羅斯石油出口不減 西方制裁效力迄今不彰」,《經濟日報》,8月30日,取自:https://udn.com/news/story/6809/6575157。
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    英文部分
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    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    行政管理碩士學程
    110921064
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110921064
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[行政管理碩士學程(MEPA)] 學位論文

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