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Title:	臺灣各縣市人口老化對離婚率的影響 Impact of Aging on the Divorce Rate-Evidence from Taiwan
Authors:	曾郁雅 Tseng, Yu-YA
Contributors:	黃智聰曾郁雅 Tseng, Yu-YA
Keywords:	人口老化生育率勞參率扶養比女性高等教育比率失業率離婚率 Population aging Labor participation rate Dependency ratio Female higher education rate Unemployment rate Divorce rate
Date:	2023
Issue Date:	2023-08-02 14:18:37 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	人口老化議題是現今社會難以抵擋的趨勢，而且是隨著時間正在加速發生中的現實狀況；而人口再替換必須要從婚姻這一層面來進行，因此婚姻狀況攸關著未來社會的安定與和諧。本研究利用2012至2021年共10年的臺灣20個縣市（扣除金門、馬祖、連江縣）男、女性離婚率追蹤資料進行空間計量研究之空間杜賓模型分析。其中男、女性離婚率區分為15歲至34歲、35歲至49歲及50歲以上等三種年齡層數據加以分析，本論文主要結果如下：65歲以上人口比率確實對15歲至34歲、50歲以上的男、女性有正向的影響；生育率對15歲至34歲女性離婚率有負向的影響但對35歲至49歲女性離婚率卻有正向影響；女性勞動參與率對50歲以上女性離婚率有正向影響；女性高等教育率對15歲至34歲、50歲以上男、女性離婚率有正向影響，但對15歲至34歲女性離婚率是負向影響；失業率對15歲至34歲男性離婚率有正向影響，對35歲至49歲、50歲以上男、女性離婚率則為負向影響；扶養比對35歲至49歲男、女性離婚率及50歲以上男性離婚率皆為正向影響。最後政策建議上可從延緩人口老化帶來的影響、強化人口移民政策及提高生育率，才能解決隨經濟社會演變帶來的婚姻問題。 The issue of population aging is an irresistible trend in today`s society, and population replacement must be carried out from the level of marriage, so the status of marriage is related to the stability and harmony of the future society . This study uses the tracking data of male and female divorce rates in 20 counties and cities in Taiwan from 2012 to 2021 for a spatial Durbin model analysis of spatial econometric research. The main results of this paper are as follows: Men and women over the age of 50 have a positive impact; the fertility rate has a negative impact on the divorce rate of women aged 15 to 34 but has a positive impact on the divorce rate of women aged 35 to 49; the female labor force participation rate has a positive impact on The divorce rate of women aged over 50 has a positive impact; the rate of female higher education has a positive impact on the divorce rate of men and women aged 15 to 34 and over 50 ; The unemployment rate has a positive impact on the divorce rate of men aged 15 to 34, and has a negative impact on the divorce rate of men and women aged 35 to 49 and over 50; the dependency ratio has a positive impact on the divorce rate of men and women aged 35 to 49 rate and the divorce rate of men over 50 are positively affected. In the end, policy recommendations can be addressed by delaying the impact of population aging and increasing the fertility rate in order to solve the marriage problem brought about by the evolution of the economy and society.
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Description:	碩士國立政治大學行政管理碩士學程 110921062
Source URI:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110921062
Data Type:	thesis
Appears in Collections:	[Master for Eminent Public Administrators] Theses

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