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Title:	臺灣地區每人每日生活用水量分析 The Analysis of Taiwan`s Per Capita Daily Water Consumption
Authors:	陳睦捷 Chen, Mu-Chieh
Contributors:	洪福聲 Hung, Fu-Sheng 陳睦捷 Chen, Mu-Chieh
Keywords:	用水量用水效率 Panel ARDL PMG Water Consumption Water Efficiency Panel ARDL PMG
Date:	2023
Issue Date:	2023-08-02 14:18:11 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	全球面臨水資源匱乏問題，為有效開源節流，本研究先回顧與用水量有關之文獻，擇選相關影響因素，再以臺灣本島20個縣市、2003至2021年之縱橫資料進行影響用水量的分析研究。本研究以每人每日生活用水量為被解釋變數，戶籍登記戶量、供水普及率、每人每年可支配所得、農林漁牧從業人口比例及青壯年人口比率為解釋變數。先進行共整合檢定，確定變數間有長期關係存在；再帶入Panel ARDL模型，探討長短期關係，以及短期偏離的修正速度；接著以Hausman Test檢定出最適估計式為PMG，最後再以Granger Causality Test研究變數間之因果關係，並對研究結果進行分析。研究發現：長期之下，每人每年可支配所得與每人每日生活用水量為顯著正向關係，且有單向因果關係；戶籍登記戶量與每人每日用水量為顯著負向關係，且有單向因果關係；農林漁牧從業人口比例雖與每人每日生活用水量為顯著正向關係，但因果關係不顯著。短期之下，每人每年可支配所得落後期及青壯年人口比率落後期皆與每人每日生活用水量呈顯著負向關係，但無因果關係。若欲有效降低用水，本研究提出建議為：1. 產業轉型，引進高科技從事第一級產業，智慧用水，降低用水量；2. 增加共享，利用共享的方式達到人口叢集的效果，進而提高用水效率、減少用水；3. 增加節水宣導，藉由改變青壯年人口的用水習慣來減少用水量。 The world is facing a scarcity of water resources. To effectively promote the efficient use of water, this study first reviews the literature related to water consumption and selects relevant influencing factors. It then conducts an analysis of the factors affecting water consumption using panel data from 20 counties and cities in Taiwan from 2003 to 2021. In this study, the per capita daily water consumption is taken as the dependent variable, while the registered population, water supply coverage rate, per capita disposable income, proportion of agricultural, forestry, fishery, and livestock employment, and proportion of the young and middle-aged population are taken as the independent variables. Co-integration tests are conducted initially to determine the existence of long-term relationships among the variables. Then, the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is employed to explore both the long- and short-term relationships, as well as the speed of adjustment in the short term. The Hausman test is used to determine the most appropriate estimator, which is found to be the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator. Finally, the Granger Causality Test is applied to examine the causal relationships between the variables. The study finds that in the long run, there is a significant positive relationship between per capita disposable income and per capita daily water consumption, with a unidirectional causal relationship. Registered population shows a significant negative relationship with per capita daily water consumption, also with a unidirectional causal relationship. Although the proportion of primary industry employment shows a significant positive relationship with per capita daily water consumption, the causal relationship is insignificant. In the short run, both the lagged period of per capita disposable income and the lagged period of the proportion of young and middle-aged population exhibit a significant negative relationship with per capita daily water consumption, but no causal relationship is found. To effectively reduce water usage, this study proposes the following suggestions: (1) Industrial transformation: introduce high-tech methods into primary industries for smart water usage and reduction in water consumption; (2) Increase sharing: utilize sharing mechanisms to achieve population clustering effects, thereby improving water efficiency and reducing water consumption; (3) Promote water conservation: by means of changing the water consumption behaviors of young and middle-aged population, significant reductions in water usage can be achieved.
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Description:	碩士國立政治大學行政管理碩士學程 110921040
Source URI:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110921040
Data Type:	thesis
Appears in Collections:	[Master for Eminent Public Administrators] Theses

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