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| Title: | 智慧微電網營運模式關鍵因素權重評比之研究
Study of Weighting Assessment on Key Factors of Smart Microgrid Operating Model |
| Authors: | 黃哲崗
Huang, Che-Gang |
| Contributors: | 許志義
吳學良
Hsu, Jyh-Yih
Wu, Shiue-Liang
黃哲崗
Huang, Che-Gang |
| Keywords: | 微電網
層級分析法
營運模式
關鍵因素
智慧電網
再生能源
Microgrid
Analytic Hierarchy Process
Operational Model
Key Factors
Smart Grid
Renewable Energy |
| Date: | 2023 |
| Issue Date: | 2023-08-02 13:43:35 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 氣候變遷對地球環境的危害日益嚴重，各國政府皆須積極推行減碳措施，而能源轉型便是其中的發展重點。然而，再生能源發電具有間歇性的特點，無法配合電力需求進行調度，隨其發電佔比上升，將影響區域電網的穩定性。據此，台灣現階段需要效仿先進國家，積極布建智慧微電網系統，並推動相應的營運模式。微電網對整體能源供應有諸多助益，不僅可提升能源系統的彈性與韌性、保障區域供電、增進能源利用率並降低碳排，還能透過電力交易，使參與者能自主售電，創造經濟效益。
本研究以層級分析法為基礎，透過檢閱過往文獻，統整出影響智慧微電網營運模式之關鍵因素，並以經濟面、技術面、社會面、環境面為主要指標，建立層級分析架構。再循此架構擬定出專家問卷，分別對專家學者、台電主管、與民營主管三個群組進行調查，並分析問卷之調查結果，求出各個關鍵因素的權重，再依其重要性做出排序。
研究結果顯示，整體而言，「經濟面」與「技術面」是較重要的考量指標。第二層級的部分，整體群組則認為「營運效益」(0.1667)、「計畫總成本」(0.1511)、與「關鍵技術成熟度」(0.1411)是較重要的準則。第三層級的因子，權重值依序為「建置成本」(0.0847)、「故障時間佔運行時間比例」(0.0724)、「系統服務故障之恢復時間」(0.0674)、「再生能源比重」(0.0673)、與「維運成本」(0.0664)，換言之，此五項因子在智慧微電網的營運模式中，具相對重要性。最後，本研究將與國外相關研究之實證結果進行比較，探討關鍵因素之排序差異。
The damage caused by climate change to the global environment is becoming increasingly severe. Therefore, governments worldwide must take active steps to implement carbon reduction measures, with a focus on energy transformation as a development priority. However, renewable energy generation has intermittent characteristics and cannot be scheduled reliably to meet electricity demand. As its share of electricity generation increases, it will impact the stability of regional power grids.
Accordingly, Taiwan should follow the example of advanced countries, actively build smart microgrid systems while promoting corresponding operating models. Microgrids have many benefits to the overall energy supply, not only enhance the flexibility and resilience of the energy system, ensure regional power supply, increase energy utilization efficiency, and reduce carbon emissions, but they can also enable participants to sell electricity independently and create economic benefits through power trading.
Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process, this study reviews relevant literature to integrate key factors affecting the operation mode of smart microgrids, and establishes a hierarchical analysis framework with economic, technical, social, and environmental indicators as the primary criteria. Then, expert questionnaires are formulated according to this framework, and surveys are conducted on three groups of experts and scholars, Taiwan Power Company executives, and private sector executives, respectively. The survey results are analyzed to determine the weight values of each key factor and to rank them according to their level of importance.
The research results show that, overall, "economic" and "technical" aspects are more important considerations. In the second level, the overall group considers "operational efficiency" (0.1667), "total project cost" (0.1511), and "maturity of key technologies" (0.1411) to be more important criteria. In the third level, the weight values are ordered by "construction cost" (0.0847), "proportion of downtime to operating time" (0.0724), "recovery time for system service failures" (0.0674), "proportion of renewable energy" (0.0673), and "maintenance cost" (0.0664). In other words, these five factors are relatively significant for the operational mode of a smart microgrid. Finally, this study will compare the empirical results with relevant studies conducted abroad to explore the differences in the ranking of key factors. |
| Reference: | 一、中文文獻
(一)期刊論文
1.吳泊綝 (2016)，金融科技關鍵因素權重評比之研究。國立政治大學經濟學系碩士論文。
2.沈萌、張干、張可愛 (2022)，「園區級區域綜合能源系統綜合評價方法及應用」。北京理工大學學報，第24卷，第4期，頁51-65。
3.林俊儒 (2014)，智慧電表用戶選用需求面管理方案關鍵因素之權重分析。國立中興大學資訊管理學系碩士論文。
4.林曉琪 、韓佳佑 、姜政綸 、郭春河 、張永瑞 (2019)，微電網的應用效益及其配套措施之分析。核能研究所。
5.張永瑞、姜政綸、李奕德 (2015)，「微電網發展前景及技術剖析」。臺灣能源期刊，第2卷 第3期，頁259-278。
6.張世翔、呂帥康 (2018)，「面向園區微電網的綜合能源系統評價方法」。《電網技術》，第8期，頁2431-2438。
7.鄧振源、曾國雄 (1989a)，「層級分析法(AHP)的內涵特性與應用(上)」。中國統計學報，第27卷，第6期，頁13707-13724。
8.鄧振源、曾國雄 (1989b)，「層級分析法(AHP)的內涵特性與應用(下)」。中國統計學報，第27卷，第7期，頁13767-13870。
(二)政府機構計畫報告
1.台灣電力公司 (2022)。強化電網韌性建設計畫。
2.行政院原子能委員會核能研究所 (2015)。104年度委託研究計畫研究報告-
台灣發展智慧電網之技術經濟分析與3E效益評估。
3.行政院 (2020)。智慧電網總體規劃方案核定本。
4.國科會、彰師大 (2021)。「多重微電網高佔比太陽光電環境之實際場域研究與展示」研發計畫。
5.經濟部能源局 (2022)。前瞻基礎建設計畫-淨零計畫-區域電網儲能計畫。
二、英文文獻
(一)期刊論文
1.A. Ashok Kumar, N. Amutha Prabha (2022). A comprehensive review of DC microgrid in market segments and control technique. Heliyon, Volume 8, Issue 11, November 2022, e11694.
2.Bohra, Shabbir S. ; Anvari-Moghaddam, Amjad; Mohammadi-Ivatloo, Behnam (2019). AHP-Assisted Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Model for Planning of Microgrids. IECON 2019 - 45th Annual Conference of the IEEE Industrial Electronics Society.
3.Chunyang Liu (2019). A Review of Microgrid Development and Technology. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, Sci. 300 042048.
4.Guopeng Zhao and Dong Wang (2019). Comprehensive Evaluation of AC/DC Hybrid Microgrid Planning Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process and Entropy Weight Method. Applied Sciences, 2019, 9, 3843.
5.Hamed Taherdoost, and Mitra Madanchian (2023). Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) Methods and Concepts. Encyclopedia 2023, 3, pp. 77–87.
6.Luis G. Vargas and J. Bernat Roura-Agusti. (1989). Business Strategy Formulation for a Financial Institution in a Developing Country. The Analytic Hierarchy Process, pp 251–265.
7.Maysam Abbasi, Ehsan Abbasi, Li Li, Ricardo P. Aguilera, Dylan Lu, and Fei Wang (2023). Review on the Microgrid Concept, Structures, Components, Communication Systems, and Control Methods. Energies 2023, 16, 484.
8.Saaty, T. L. (1980). The Analytic Hierarchy Process. New Cork.
9.Sheetal Chandak and Pravat Kumar Rout (2020). The implementation framework of a microgrid: A review. International Journal of Energy Research 2020; 1–25.
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11.Taskin Jamal, Tania Urmee, GM Shafiullah, and Farhad Shahnia (2018) Using Experts’ Opinions and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis to Determine the Weighing of Criteria Employed in Planning Remote Area Microgrids. ICUE 2018 on Green Energy for Sustainable Development.
12.Ying Ma, Yichang Li, Shunzhi Zhu, Nan Qin, Guang Zhao, and Chao Huang (2018) Fuzzy AHP-based Comprehensive Evaluation for Smart Grid in Energy Internet System. International Journal of Performability Engineering, vol. 14, no. 8, August 2018, pp. 1705-1711.
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(二)國外機構報告
1.International Energy Agency (2021). Net Zero by 2050 - A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector. Flagship report, May 2021.
2.International Renewable Energy Agency (2019). Innovation landscape brief: Behind-the-meter batteries, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi.
3.Microgrid Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends & Forecasts (2023). Mordor Intelligence Pvt Ltd.
三、網路資源
1.Ethan Howland (2021年6月25日). Chick-fil-A Restaurants to Install Test Microgrids ahead of Possible National Rollout. MICROGRID KNOWLEDGE.
https://www.microgridknowledge.com/google-news-feed/article/11427920/chick-fil-a-restaurants-to-install-test-microgrids-ahead-of-possible-national-rollout
2.Greenpeace 綠色和平 (2021年11月19日)。聯合國氣候大會落幕，結果如何？減碳協議是成功還是失敗？
https://reurl.cc/M8vZAX
3.Mark Wilson (2021年2月10日)。Microgrids: A critical key to the energy transition. Stantec.
https://www.stantec.com/en/ideas/microgrids-a-critical-key-to-the-energy-transition
4.王靖 (2020)，「增強電網韌性，應對極端天氣」。展望行業觀察，頁66-71。
https://www.accenture.com/_acnmedia/PDF-109/Accenture-Enhance-Power-Grid-Resilience.pdf
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https://tpcjournal.taipower.com.tw/article/1916
6.台電月刊 (2018年12月19日)，Small Is New Big 以小見大的電網未來。672期。
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15.劉嫈楓 (2023年2月24日)，氣候變遷因應法上路！淨零目標入法、徵收碳費、設置溫管基金 修法重點一次看。聯合新聞網。
https://ubrand.udn.com/ubrand/story/12117/6989827 |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
110258039 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110258039 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [經濟學系] 學位論文
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