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| Title: | 經理人盈餘預測與成本僵固性之關聯
The Association Between Management Earnings Forecasts and Cost Stickiness |
| Authors: | 梁思蘋
Liang, Sz-Ping |
| Contributors: | 潘健民
梁思蘋
Liang, Sz-Ping |
| Keywords: | 強制揭露盈餘預測
經理人盈餘預測
成本僵固性
Mandatory earnings forecasts
Management earnings forecasts
Cost stickiness |
| Date: | 2023 |
| Issue Date: | 2023-08-02 13:24:42 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本研究以日本東京證券交易所上市企業為對象，探討經理人盈餘預測與成本僵固性之關聯。成本僵固性為隨著產銷量減少，成本的下降幅度卻小於產銷量增加時上升的幅度，其主係因經理人對未來之預期影響其對企業承諾資源之決策，進而造成成本僵固性之現象。在日本，大多數企業會評估且發布未來一年之盈餘預測，當經理人盈餘預測準確度高，表示經理人對於未來產業景氣是否復甦、外部需求不確定性之趨勢判斷較為準確，可能不會裁撤大量已投入成本，會保留產能以供需求回升，以避免往後發生不必要之調整成本，進而影響成本僵固性。
本研究之實證結果顯示，與過去成本僵固性文獻一致，日本企業普遍本身即存有成本僵固性，實證結果亦顯示盈餘預測準確之日本企業，亦會導致企業成本呈現僵固性之現象。進一步分析後，本研究發現疫情前預測較準確之企業會導致成本僵固性；反之，疫情後兩者則不具顯著相關性。
本研究亦進一步測試經理人預測是否樂觀且是否準確與成本僵固性之關聯性，實證結果發現預測較準確且悲觀之企業以及預測較不準確且樂觀之企業，會導致成本僵固性；預測較不準確且悲觀之企業反而會導致成本反僵固性；而預測較為準確且樂觀之企業則與成本僵固性無顯著關係。
This study examines the association between management earnings forecasts and cost stickiness using data from firm listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in Japan. Cost stickiness refers to the phenomenon of asymmetric decrease in sales in relation to the decrease in SG&A expenses. This is primarily due to managerial expectations about the future propensity, which influence their decision-making regarding resource commitments that leads to cost stickiness.
Empirical results of this study show that Japanese firms generally exhibit cost stickiness. The results also show that firms with management accurate earnings forecasts are cost stickiness. Furthermore, there is an association between the accuracy of management earnings forecasts before COVID-19 and such association cannot be found since the pandemic of COVID-19.
At last, this study further examines the association between manager forecast optimism and cost stickiness. The empirical results reveal that accurate and pessimistic forecasts, as well as inaccurate and optimistic forecasts, are associated with cost stickiness. On the other hand, inaccurate and pessimistic forecasts lead to cost anti-stickiness. However, there is no significant association between cost stickiness and accurate and optimistic forecasts. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
會計學系
110353019 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110353019 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [會計學系] 學位論文
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