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| Title: | 疫情恐慌下的房市：恐慌購買情緒與感知稀缺情緒之分析
The Real Estate Market Under the Panic of the COVID-19 Pandemics: Analysis of Panic Buying and Perceived Scarcity |
| Authors: | 劉祉岑
Liu, Chih-Tsen |
| Contributors: | 陳明吉
Chen, Ming-Chi
劉祉岑
Liu, Chih-Tsen |
| Keywords: | COVID-19
恐慌情緒
恐慌購買
感知稀缺
房地產市場
COVID-19
Panic
Panic Buying
Perceived Scarcity
Real Estate Market |
| Date: | 2023 |
| Issue Date: | 2023-08-02 12:58:16 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本研究以Google Trends方法量化疫情期間台灣的恐慌情緒程度，並將恐慌情緒進一步細分為形成恐慌情緒與影響消費者市場的主要兩個情緒：恐慌購買情緒與感知稀缺情緒。探討所開發一般消費者與房市消費者之恐慌、恐慌購買與感知稀缺情緒變數與台灣房價指數、住宅交易量、房屋銷售天數與房價議價空間的動態影響關係。研究期間為2019年1月至2023年2月，探討COVID-19疫情期間相關情緒變數對於房市之影響，並進一部觀察情緒變數對於房市是否具有非線性的門檻效果以及雙向反饋的因果關係。
本研究實證，在COVID-19疫情期間，房價變化方面，房市感知稀缺情緒變動量在落後一期有正向影響。房屋銷售天數變化方面，房市感知稀缺情緒的變動量在落後二期有負向影響。住宅交易量變化方面，恐慌購買情緒的變動量在同期、落後一期有負向影響，落後二期時則有正向影響。房價議價空間方面，恐慌情緒的變動量在落後一期時有正向影響、恐慌購買情緒的變動量在落後一期有正向影響、房市恐慌購買情緒的變動量在落後一期有負向影響，而房市感知稀缺情緒的變動量在當期有負向影響。
此外，經實證結果得知，恐慌購買情緒變動量與房屋銷售天數成長率之間，以及房市感知稀缺情緒變動量與住宅交易量成長率之間存在非線性門檻效果。最後，研究結果顯示，情緒變數和房市資訊並無存在雙向因果關係。然而除了情緒的變動量會對房市資訊的成長率造成影響外，房市資訊的變化亦會影響恐慌情緒，引發恐慌情緒的變動。
This study uses Google Trends to quantify the degree of panic sentiment in Taiwan during the pandemic. And further splits panic sentiment into two main sentiments that shape panic sentiment and affect the consumer market: panic buying sentiment and perceived scarcity sentiment. To investigate the dynamic relationships between the panic, panic buying, and perceived scarcity sentiment variables developed for general consumers and housing market consumers and the housing prices, transaction volume, flow days, and bargaining space in Taiwan. The study period is from January 2019 to February 2023 to investigate the impact of sentiment variables on the housing market during the COVID-19 pandemic and to further observe whether the sentiment variables have non-linear threshold effects on the housing market and the causal relationship of bidirectional feedbacks.
This study demonstrates that the change in housing market perceived scarcity sentiment during the COVID-19 pandemic had a positive effect on the growth rate of housing price during lagged one period. For the flow days, the change in housing market perceived scarcity sentiment had a negative effect during lagged two period. As for the growth rate of transaction volume, the change in panic buying sentiment has a negative effect during the corresponding period and lagged one period, while it has a positive effect during lagged two period. In terms of bargaining space, the change in panic sentiment has a positive effect during lagged one period, the change in panic buying sentiment has a positive effect during lagged one period, the change in housing market panic buying sentiment has a negative effect during lagged one period, and the change in housing market perceived scarcity sentiment has a negative effect during the corresponding period.
In addition, the results of the study show that there is a non-linear threshold effect between the amount of change in panic buying sentiment and the growth rate of flow days, and between the amount of change in housing market perceived scarcity sentiment and the growth rate of transaction volume. Finally, the results show that there is no bivariate causality between sentiment variables and housing market information. However, in addition to the effect of the change in sentiment on the growth rate of housing market information, the change in housing market information also affects panic sentiment and triggers the change in panic sentiment. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
財務管理學系
110357014 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110357014 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [財務管理學系] 學位論文
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