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    题名: 寧波舟山港合并後對周邊城市經濟協同影響因素分析
    Analysis of Economic Synergy Factors on Surrounding Cities After the Merger of Ningbo Zhoushan Port
    作者: 朱騰輝
    Zhu, Teng-Hui
    贡献者: 徐士勛
    Hsu, Shih-Hsun
    朱騰輝
    Zhu,Teng-Hui
    关键词: 經濟協同
    港口經濟
    區域經濟
    Economic synergy
    Port economy
    Regional economy
    日期: 2023
    上传时间: 2023-07-10 13:58:36 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 港口的發展與周邊城市經濟發展是一種相互依靠相互影響互動的關係。對於港口而言, 港口以水路, 陸路, 鐵路, 航空等運輸方式構成運輸體系, 為周邊城市提供了交通運輸, 倉庫儲存物流等其他配套服務, 給周邊城市的經濟發展提供支撐。 反過來, 城市的經濟發展的港航物流業臨港工業, 高新產業,商業貿易等相關產業, 為港口的發展提供了豐富的貨源, 人力資源和經濟資源, 給港口的發展帶去蓬勃的發展力量。 因此, 研究港口與港口周邊城市經濟協同發展影響因素不僅是加強中國大陸的區域可持續發展的關鍵問題, 也是推動提升港口與周邊城市經濟互相發展的重要保證。
    與此同時, 不僅港口與周邊城市之間需要相互協同協作發展, 港口與港口之間的協作也變得越來越頻繁。 現在, 港口聯盟, 港口合併成為了目前中國大陸港口的主要發展方向港口合併後, 與周邊城市的經濟協同影響成了研究學者的熱門研究問題。 不同港口的資源重組, 貨源整合, 不同港口間的物流資源, 行政資源, 股權資源, 經營理論的再分配, 再運營流動, 需要所屬城市的政策和資金共同支持。 近年來, 寧波港和舟山港整合成為寧波舟山港, 研究寧波舟山港合併後對周邊城市的經濟影響, 尋找港口與周邊城市的經濟協同發展影響因素, 是一個值得研究的問題。
    本文首先整理了國內外關於港口與周邊城市相互影響的文獻, 然後根據寧波舟山港與寧波, 舟山兩市的港口發展實際數據和城市經濟實際數據, 構建關於寧波舟山港和周邊城市經濟數據的模型利用格蘭傑因果關係檢驗 (Granger causality in High Dimensional Vector Autoregressive Models) 尋找影響港口與周邊城市經濟的相干因素, 並實證。 通過模型實證表明分析, 得出結論: 寧波市第一產業產值和舟山市第一產業產值能夠提高寧波舟山港貨物吞吐量的預測可能性。 而寧波舟山港貨物吞吐量和水路貨運量能夠提高寧波市第二產業產值和舟山市社會消費品總額的預測可能性。最後, 基於實證結果, 進一步對提高寧波舟山港與周邊城市的經濟協同性以及促進兩者發展提出建議和存在問題。
    The development of the port and the surrounding city’s economic development is a relationship of mutual dependence and mutual influence interaction. For the port, the port constitutes a transportation system by waterway, land, railroad, air, and other modes of transport, which provides other supporting services such as transportation, warehouse storage, and logistics for the surrounding cities and provides support for the economic development of the surrounding cities. In turn, the economic development of the city’s port navigation and logistics industry, port industries, high-tech industries, commercial trade, and other related industries, for the development of the port to provide a rich source of goods, human resources, and economic resources, to the development of the port to bring vigorous development forces. Therefore, studying the factors influencing the synergistic economic development of ports and cities around ports is not only a key issue to strengthen the sustainable regional development of mainland China but also an important guarantee to promote the enhancement of mutual economic development of ports and neighboring cities.
    At the same time, not only do ports and neighboring cities need to collaborate for development, but also the collaboration between ports and ports is becoming more and more frequent. Nowadays, port alliances and port mergers have become the main development direction of ports in mainland China, and the economic synergistic impact of port mergers with neighboring cities has become a popular research issue for research scholars. The reorganization of resources of different ports, the integration of cargo sources, the redistribution of logistics resources, administrative resources, equity resources, and operational theories among different ports, and the operational flow need to be supported by the policies and funds of the cities they belong to. In recent years, Ningbo Port and Zhoushan Port have been integrated to become Ningbo Zhoushan Port. It is a worthwhile research issue to study the economic impact of Ningbo Zhoushan Port on the surrounding cities after the merger and to find the influencing factors of economic synergy development between the port and the surrounding cities.
    In this paper, firstly, we compiled the domestic and foreign literature on the interaction between the port and the surrounding cities, and then constructed a model about the economic data of Ningbo Zhoushan port and the surrounding cities based on the actual data of port development and the actual data of city economy in Ningbo, Zhoushan, and used Granger causality test (Granger causality in High Dimensional Vector Autoregressive Models) to find the coherent factors affecting the economy of the port and the surrounding cities, and empirical evidence. The model empirically shows the analysis and concludes that the output value of the primary industry in Ningbo City and the output value of the primary industry in Zhoushan City can improve the predicted possibility of cargo throughput in Ningbo Zhoushan port. And the cargo throughput and waterway freight volume of Ningbo Zhoushan Port can improve the prediction possibility of the output value of the secondary industry in Ningbo City and the total social consumption goods in Zhoushan City.
    Finally, based on the empirical results, further suggestions and problems are proposed to improve the economic synergy between Ningbo Zhoushan Port and the neighboring cities as well as to promote the development of both.
    參考文獻: 孟成斐.(2019). 港口整合下廈門港與城市經濟協同實證分析 (碩士學位論文,大連海事大學)。
    王洪清, 祁春節, 劉歡.(2013). 港口對腹地經濟貢獻彈性的 U 型曲線及其理論解釋. 地域研究與開發 (02),22-26+45。
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    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    經濟學系
    110258047
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110258047
    数据类型: thesis
    显示于类别:[經濟學系] 學位論文

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