政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/142919

政大典藏 > College of International Affairs > Graduate Institute of Russian Studies > Theses > Item 140.119/142919

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/142919

Title:	俄羅斯對中政策轉變研究（2012-2019） A Study on Russia`s Policy toward China (2012-2019)
Authors:	許傳家 Hsu, Chuan-Chia
Contributors:	許菁芸 Hsu, Jing-Yun 許傳家 Hsu, Chuan-Chia
Keywords:	俄中關係新古典現實主義權力網絡關係戰略夥伴關係 Sino-Russian relationship Neoclassical realism Power network Strategic partnership
Date:	2022
Issue Date:	2023-01-05 15:30:49 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	2012年至2019年間，俄羅斯與中國透過簽署戰略夥伴協議提升雙邊關係。但是關於俄羅斯主動提升對中關係之原因與過程尚待釐清。儘管相關文獻豐富，但多數分析集中於國際體系層次的因素，例如北約東擴或國際能源市場。另一方面，國內因素之研究則缺乏整合性觀點。也因此目前為止缺乏對俄羅斯國內行為者的影響力與對中決策的通盤性研究。本研究分析了從2012年至2019年間俄羅斯外交決策者對國際體系與國內體系的認知，並透過新古典現實主義的研究框架與文獻分析法，並得到以普欽為核心的派系權力網絡是影響俄羅斯對中政策的重要變數。研究顯示，2012年至2019年間兩次的俄中關係提升有著不同的原因。在2012年，俄羅斯國內行為者在決策過程中仍具有一定的獨立自主性，依靠其專業在以普欽為中心的決策網絡下制定政策並對強化俄中關係。但在2019年，俄中關係的強化則是被克里米亞半島衝突和中美關係緊張等突發事件所推動，多數行為者被迫加強與中國的關係以維持其經濟利益和政治地位。同時，普欽的中央集權和俄羅斯新型的派系政治結構降低了行為者在決策過程中的獨立性和影響力。基於上述原因，這推動了俄中關係的加強與新時代全面戰略夥伴關係的建立。 A series of ratifying strategic partner agreements from 2012 to 2019 have enhanced the bilateral relationship between Russia and China. However, it is unclear why Russia is willing to strengthen its ties with China. Despite the abundant literature, most of the studies focus on the factors at the level of the international system, such as the expansion of NATO or the international market of energy. On the other hand, the studies on domestic factors lack of integrated point of view. Thus, there is no overall research on the influence of domestic actors and its correlation to Russia’s China policy so far. The paper analyses how the decision-makers of Russia’s foreign policy precept the international and domestic systems from 2012 to 2019. Through the theories of neo-classical realism and the approaches of literature analysis, the paper suggests that the power network of fractional politics centered on Putin is the critical variable in Russia’s foreign policy with China. The paper indicates that there are two different reasons for the enhancement of the Sino-Russian relationship from 2012 to 2019. In 2012, the domestic actors in Russia still had some independence in the decision making process, relying on their personal professions to make the policy and intensified the Sino-Russian relationship under the Putin-Centered decision making network. In 2019, however, the agenda was driven by emergencies such as the conflicts in the Crimean Peninsula and the soaring Sino-American confrontations. Most actors are forced to strengthen their relationship with China to maintain their economic interests and political positions. At the same time, Putin’s centralization of power and the new formation of the power network in the Russian fractional political structure lower the actors’ independence and influence in the decision making process. For the above reasons, it enhances the Sino-Russian relationship and the founding of the “new era of comprehensive strategic partnership”.
Reference:	(一) 中文資料中新網，2010，〈中俄印外交部長第十次會晤聯合公報發佈（全文）〉，11/15。http://www.chinanews.com.cn/gn/2010/11-15/2657213.shtml，2022/07/10。王定士，2002，《俄羅斯對中國政策之內外在動因及其侷限 1992-2002》，臺北：明耀圖書公司。王曉德，2000，《美國文化與外交》，大陸：世界知識出版社。包宗和、張登及，2018，《國際關係理論入門》，臺北：五南出版社。白潔，2019，〈習近平會見俄羅斯聯邦安全會議秘書帕特魯舍夫〉，中華人民共和國國防部網頁，12/2，http://www.mod.gov.cn/big5/leaders/2019 -12/02/content_4856110.htm，2022/10/01。朱柔若，2000，《社會研究方法: 質化與量化取向》，臺北: 揚智文化。李淳、顏慧欣與楊書菲，2021，〈美中貿易戰之趨勢及對臺灣投資與貿易結構之影響〉，《遠景基金會季刊》，22(2):1-58。邢悅，2002，〈文化功能在對外政策中的表現〉，《太平洋學報》，3:78-85。周良、婁琛，2011，〈孟建柱會見俄羅斯聯邦安全會議秘書派特魯舍夫〉，中華人民共和國中央人民政府網頁，9/22，http://www.gov.cn/ldhd/2011-09/22/content_1954304.htm，2022/06/25。周良、盧濤，2012，〈戴秉國同派特魯舍夫舉行中俄第七輪戰略安全磋商〉，中華人民共和國中央人民政府網頁，8/20，http://www.gov.cn/ldhd/2012- 08/20/content_2207469.htm，2022/06/25。松崎雄典，2012，〈俄羅斯石油併購秋明BP成全球最大油企〉，《日經中文網》，10/23，https://zh.cn.nikkei.com/industry/ienvironment/3907-20121023.html，2022/06/02。林經緯，2009，〈探討 [中] 俄軍事技術合作新動向〉，《展望與探索》，7 (8):60-71。洪美蘭，2007，〈從俄羅斯與歐洲國家經貿關係論俄國對外政策之現實性〉，《國際關係學報》，(24):145-156。高佩珊，2013，〈從重返亞洲至再平衡─論美國亞太政策〉，《中國行政評論》，19(2):157-177。國務院辦公廳，2013，〈王岐山會見俄羅斯政要謝欽談加強雙邊能源合作〉，中華人民共和中央人民政府網頁，2/19，http://www.gov.cn/ldhd/2013- 02/19/content_2335199.htm，2022/07/19。張亞中、左正東，2013，《國際關係總論》，臺北：揚智文化。張紅俠，2016，〈制裁與反制裁: 俄羅斯經濟困局及脫困之路〉，《俄羅斯東歐中亞研究》，6(5):51-67。張茜，2011，〈中俄承諾加強軍事合作〉，《人民網》，11/19， http://en.people.cn/90786/7603567.html，2022/07/06。張清敏，2003，〈外交政策分析中文化因素的作用與地位〉，《國際論壇》，4:34-39。梁啟超，2022，《中國歷史研究法補編》臺北：五南出版社。王承宗，1997，〈國際因素對「中」俄戰略夥伴關係之影響: 從俄羅斯的觀點分析〉，《問題與研究》，36(8):29-41。許菁芸，2021，〈普京政權下俄羅斯權力網絡與權力菁英分析〉，《政治科學論叢》，90:73-116。許菁芸、宋鎮照，2011，〈俄羅斯的民主抉擇與統治菁英權力結構變化〉，《東吳政治學報》，29(4):116-174。連弘宜，2006，〈世紀之交的俄羅斯東亞政策─析論俄中兩國「戰略協作夥伴關係」之運作現況〉，《國際關係學報》，(21):71-111。連弘宜，2014，〈克里米亞事件探討俄羅斯的對外政策〉，《戰略安全研析》，110:28-36。郭武平、許菁芸&黃建豪，2014，〈中俄關係 20 年:權力，利益，認知的回顧與前瞻〉，《問題與研究》，53(4):29-63。曾祥進，2010，〈〔中國能源〕年產1,300萬噸的中俄天津煉油廠開工，總投資300多億元--新華〉，《路透社》，9/25， https://www.reuters.com/article/idCNnCN132734520100925，2022/07/19。程宏毅、常雪梅，2016，〈習近平會見俄羅斯聯邦安全會議秘書帕特魯舍夫〉，《中國共產黨新聞網》，9/14，http://cpc.people.com.cn/BIG5/n1/2016/0914/c64094-28716868.html，2022/09/15。覃博雅、常红，2017，〈梅德維傑夫:一帶一路同歐亞經濟聯盟對接為雙方帶來更多機遇〉，《人民網》，10/31， http://world.people.com.cn/n1/2017/1031/c1002-29619117.html，2022/09/15。廖舜右、蔡松伯，2013，〈新古典現實主義與外交政策分析的再連結〉，《問題與研究》，52(3):43-61。趙小華、曹伊，2013，〈梅德維傑夫總統任期內俄歐關係發展特點〉，《黑河學院學報》，(1):8-12。趙立枝，2002，〈俄羅斯對外政策的調整趨勢及其東部經濟開發前瞻〉，《俄羅斯學報》，2:311-331。鄭端耀，2005，〈國際關係新古典現實主義理論〉，《問題與研究》，44(1):115-140。薛建吾，2022，〈中國 [一帶一路] 的進展與影響，2013~ 2021〉，《中國大陸研究》，65(2):117-157。謝倩、常雪梅，2018，〈韓正會見俄羅斯聯邦總統能源發展戰略和生態安全委員會執行秘書、俄羅斯石油公司總裁謝欽〉，《中國共產黨新聞網》，11/30，http://cpc.people.com.cn/n1/2018/1130/c64094-30433331.html，2022/09/27。謝寶煖，1999，〈歷史研究法及其在圖書資訊學之應用〉，《中國圖書館學會會報》，62:35-55。蔡秀勤、張佑宗，2011，〈阿拉伯之春的啓示與反思〉，《臺灣民主季刊》，8(3):199-209。魏百谷，2013，〈俄羅斯的中國政策──以戰略夥伴關係為探討中心〉，《臺灣國際研究季刊》，9(2):125-142。嚴震生，2014，〈烏克蘭戰爭中的美俄立場及政策思維〉，《全球政治評論》，46:1-6。 (二) 外文資料 Allison, G.T. 1971. Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis. Boston: Little, Brown. Argus. 2014. “US sanctions Russia’s Rosneft, Novatek.” July 16. in https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/915846-us-sanctions-russias-rosneft- novatek. Latest update September 28, 2022. Arkhipova, V. 2019. “Sanctions against Russia: Specification and Effects for National Economic Development.” Россия и АТР 4(106): 124-143. Arkhipov, I. 2014. “Putin Says Officials Must Stop Russian `Color` Revolution.” Bloomberg September 20, in https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-11-20/putin-says-russia-must-prevent-color-revolution. Latest upodate December 20, 2022. Baczynska, G. 2015. “Russia blames U.S. for security crises and turmoil in Ukraine.” Reuters July 16. in https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-russia-idUKKBN0N70W820150416. Latest update September 26, 2022. Baev, P. 2014. “Rosneft, Gazprom and the Government: the Decision-Making 　　Triangle on Russia`s Energy Policy.” Russie Nei Visions 75: 1-19. Barany, Z. 2008. “Civil–Military Relations and Institutional Decay: Explaining 　　Russian Military Politics.” Europe-Asia Studies 60(4), 581-604. Barnouw, V. 1982. An Introduction to Anthropology. Dorsey Press. Baturo, A. & J. A. Elkink. 2016. “Dynamics of regime personalization and 　　patron-client networks in Russia, 1999–2014.” Post-Soviet Affairs 32(1): 75- 　　98. Baum, M. A. & P. B. Potter. 2008. “The relationships between mass media, public opinion, and foreign policy: Toward a theoretical synthesis.” Annu. Rev. Polit. Sci 11: 39-65. Bilgin, M. 2011. “Energy security and Russia’s gas strategy: The symbiotic relationship between the state and firms.” Communist and Post-Communist Studies 44(2): 119-127. Bjørnmose, J., F. Roca, T. Turgot & D. S. Hansen. 2009. “An assessment of the　　gas and oil pipelines in Europe.” EPRS: European Parliamentary Research Service. in https://policycommons.net/artifacts/1341166/an-assessment-of-the-gas-and-oil-pipelines-in-europe/1952485/. Latest update April 30, 2022. Blair, D.C. 2009. “The National Intelligence Strategy of the United States of America-August 2009.” in https://irp.fas.org/offdocs/nis2009.pdf. Latest update Latest update May 20, 2022. Blank, S. 2017. “Kremlin Ties Rosneft Closer to China.” Eurasia Daily Monitor 14(144). in https://jamestown.org/program/kremlin-ties-rosneft-closer-to-china/ Latest update May 20, 2022. Bolt, P. J. 2014. “Sino-Russian relations in a changing world order.” Strategic 　　studies quarterly 8(4): 47-69. Bukkvoll, T. 2003. “Putin’s strategic partnership with the West: The domestic politics of Russian foreign policy.” Comparative Strategy 22(3): 223-242. Bremmer, I., & S. Charap. 2007. “The siloviki in Putin`s Russia: who they are and what they want.” The Washington Quarterly 30(1): 83-92. Bush, J. 2015. “Russian officials discuss economic crisis.” Reuters January 14. in https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-russia-crisis-forum-highlights-idUKKBN0KN18I20150114. Latest update September 05, 2022. CBC. 2014. “Crimea crisis: Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev sets economic plan.” March 31. in https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/crimea-crisis-russian-prime-minister-dmitry-medvedev-sets-economic-plan-1.2592455. Latest update September 19, 2022. CGTN. 2018. “President Xi Jinping calls for interconnecting BRI, EAEU.” October 18. in https://news.cgtn.com/news/3d3d514d314d544f7a457a6333566d54/share_p.html Latest update October 08, 2022. CIA. 2021. “The World Fact Book-Explore All Countries-Russia.” in https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/russia/#economy. Latest update August 20, 2022. Deyermond, R. 2013. “Assessing the reset: successes and failures in the Obama administration`s Russia policy, 2009–2012.” European Security 22(4): 500- 523. Domanska, M. & S. Kardas. 2016. “The consequences of the Western financial sanctions on the Russian economy.” OSW Commentary203: 1-8. Drezner, D. W. 2011. “Sanctions sometimes smart: targeted sanctions in theory and practice.” International studies review 13(1): 96-108. Duncan, P. 2007. “`Oligarchs`, business and Russian foreign policy: from El`tsin to Putin.” Economics Working Papers 83: 1-26 Ellyatt, H. 2018. “Business leaders hail Russia’s booming energy ties with China.” CNBC November 29. in https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/29/business-leaders-hail-russias-booming-energy-ties-with-china.html. Latest update October 15, 2022. Fish, M. S. 2017. “The Kremlin emboldened: what is Putinism?” Journal of Democracy 28(4): 61-75. Fortescue, S. 2006. Russia`s oil barons and metal magnates: oligarchs and the state in transition. Springer. Gabuev, A. 2015. “A soft Alliance?: Russia-China Relations After the Ukraine Crisis. European Council on Foreign Relations.” European Council on Foreign Relations126: 1-11. Gabuev, A. 2015. “Russia’s Policy towards China: Key Players and the Decision- making Process.” The Asan Forum March 5. in https://theasanforum.org/russias-policy-towards-china-key-players-and-the-decision-making-process/. Latest update October 15, 2022. Gabuev, A. 2016. “Friends with benefits. Russian-Chinese Relations After the Ukraine Crisis.” Carnegie Moscow Center29: 1-42. Gabuev, A. 2018. “Russia’s Policy Toward China: Key Players and the Decision- making Process.” International Relations and Asia’s Northern Tier : 59-73. Galeotti, M. 2019. “Russia’s Security Council: Where Policy, Personality, and Process Meet.” Marshall Center Security Insights 41: 1-8. Galeotti, M. 2020. “The Presidential Administration: The Command and Control Nexus of Putin’s Russia.” Marshall Center Security Insight 44: 1-8 . Gazprom. 2017. “Alexey Miller speaks at CNPC’s roundtable on oil and gas cooperation as part of Belt and Road Forum.” May 17. in https://www.einnews.com/pr_news/381631587/alexey-miller-speaks-at-cnpc-s- roundtable-on-oil-and-gas-cooperation-as-part-of-belt-and-road-forum. Latest update September 29, 2022. Gazprom. 2020. “Power of Siberia: inside look.” December 2. in https://www.gazprom.com/press/news/reports/2020/power-of-siberia-inside/ . Latest update September 30, 2022. Gazprom. 2022. “Alexey Borisovich Miller Chairman, OAO Gazprom Management Committee.”. in https://web.archive.org/web/20061101155121/http://www.gazprom.ru/eng/articles/article8603.shtml. Latest update November, 2022. Gelman, V. & H. Appel. 2015. “Revisiting Russia`s Economic Model: The Shift 　　from Development to Geopolitics.” PONARS Policy Memo Series 397: 1-5. Godzimirski, J. M. 2020. “Russian energy and grand strategy.” NUPI Policy Brief 6: 1-4 . Goh, E. 2005. Meeting the China challenge: The US in Southeast Asian regional security strategies. Washington: East-West Center. Halperin, M. H.,& Clapp, P. 2007. Bureaucratic politics and foreign policy. Brookings Institution Press. Harding, L. 2014. “Ukraine crisis-the view from Russia Ivan Egorov and Nikolai Patrushev for Rossiyskaya Gazeta.” The Guardian October 24. in https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/24/sp-ukraine-russia-cold-war Latest update August 30, 2022. Heritage, T. 2012. “Russia`s Lavrov perfects the art of saying `Nyet`.” Reuters August 6. in https://www.reuters.com/article/russia-syria-lavrov-idCNL6E8J2MMH20120806. Latest update May 28, 2022. Herspring, D. 2013. “Anatoly Serdyukov and the Russian Military: An Exercise in Confusion.” Problems of Post-Communism 60(6): 42-58. Higgins, A. 2011. “China finds promise and frustration in pursuit of Russian energy.” Washington Post November 27. in https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/china-finds-promise-and-peril-in-pursuit-of-russian-energy/2011/11/27/gIQA1H9hzO_story.html. Latest update July 25, 2022. Hyde, M. 2001. “Putin`s federal reforms and their implications for presidential power in Russia.” Europe-Asia Studies 53(5): 719-743. IMF. 2021. “IMF Working paper: Regional Disparities and Fiscal Federalism in Russia.” May 20. in https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2021/05/20/Regional-Disparities-and-Fiscal-Federalism-in-Russia-50238. Latest update May 08, 2022. İşeri, E.& V. Özdemir. 2017. “Geopolitical Economy of Russia’s Foreign Policy Duality: Lockean in its East and Hobbesian in its West. Russia’s Dual Roles in Global Politics as a Traditional Great Power and a Rising Power.” Rising Powers Quarterly 1(1): 57-79. Jonter, T. & I. Viktorov. 2011. Energy and security in the Baltic Sea region: research papers in international relations. Acta Universitatis Stockholmiensis. Joseph, J. 2014. Realism and neorealism in international relations theory. The Encyclopedia of political thought: 3142-3151. Kaarbo, J. 1998. “Power politics in foreign policy: The influence of bureaucratic minorities.” European Journal of International Relations 4(1): 67-97. Kaczmarski, M. 2017. “Two ways of influence-building: The Eurasian economic union and the one belt, one road initiative.” Europe-Asia Studies 69(7): 1027- 1046. Kegley Jr, C. W. 1994. “How did the cold war die? Principles for an autopsy.” Mershon International Studies Review 38(Supplement_1): 11-41. Kerr, D. 2005. “The Sino–Russian Partnership and U.S. Policy Toward North Korea: From Hegemony to Concert in Northeast Asia,” International Studies Quarterly 49: 411-437. Kosowska, K. & P. Kosowski. 2015. “25 years of Gazprom on the gas market.” AGH Drilling, Oil, Gas 32(2): 289-302. Kuchins, A. C. & I. A. Zevelev. 2012. “Russian foreign policy: Continuity in change.” The Washington Quarterly 35(1): 147-161. Kupchinsky, R. 2006. “Russia: Putin`s Former Colleagues Make Up Today`s Energy `Team`.” Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty February 15. in https://www.rferl.org/a/1065792.html. Latest update June 06, 2022. Lamberova, N. & K. Sonin. 2018. “Economic transition and the rise of alternative institutions: Political connections in Putin`s Russia.” Economics of Transition 26 (4): 615-648. Larsson, R. L. 2006. Russia`s Energy Policy: Security dimensions and Russia`s reliability as an energy supplier. Swedish Defence Research Agency(FOI). Lavrov, S. 2010. “Interview of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, We can’t say that NATO presents a threat to us, Kommersant .” Permanent Mission of the Russian Federation to the European Union June 11. in https://russiaeu.ru/en/news/interview-russian-foreign-minister-sergey-lavrov-we-cant-say-nato-presents-threat-us. Latest update May 25, 2022. Lavrov, S. 2011. “Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov Interview to the Vesti 24 Television Channel, Moscow, July 7, 2011.” The Embassy of the Russian Federation to the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. in https://www.rusemb.org.uk/press/130. Latest update May 25, 2022. Lavrov, S. 2012. “國家副主席習近平會見俄羅斯外長拉夫羅夫.”中華人民共和國外交部網頁，5/11， https://www.mfa.gov.cn/web/zyxw/201205/t20120511_318762.shtml . Latest update May 25, 2022. Lavrov, S. 2017. “Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s statement and answers to media questions at a news conference on Russian diplomacy in 2017. Moscow, 15 January 2018.” Permanent Mission of the Russian Federation to the European Union January 16. in https://russiaeu.ru/en/news/foreign-minister-sergey-lavrovs-annual-press-conference-0. Latest update September 25, 2022. Lavrov, S. 2020. “Lavrov: I do not see how Russia could benefit from U.S.- China trade war.” Interfax July 10. in https://interfax.com/newsroom/top- stories/69253/?sphrase_id=4629. Latest update September 25, 2022. Lavrov, S. 2021. “Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s video address to the Sixth International Conference Russia and China: Cooperation in a New Era.” The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation June 1. in https://archive.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/4759576. Latest update September 23, 2022. Lelyveld, M. 2017. “China`s Oil Investment in Russia Raises Questions.” RFA November 06. in https://www.rfa.org/english/commentaries/energy_watch/chinas-oil-investment-in-russia-raises-questions-11062017110948.html. Latest update October 09, 2022. Lipunov, V. & A. Sarwal. 2021. “Russian-Chinese Partnership within the EAEU.” SSRN :1-7. Luhn, A. 2017. “The Darth Vader of Russia: meet Igor Sechin, Putin`s right-hand man.” Vox February 08. in https://www.vox.com/world/2017/2/8/14539800/igor-sechin-putin-trump-sanctions-oil-rosneft-tillerson-secretary-of-state-kremlin. Latest update December 14, 2022. Malcolm, N., A. Pravda., R. Allison. & M. Light. 1996. Internal factors in Russian foreign policy. Oxford University Press. Malashenko, A. 2013. Russia and the Arab spring. Moscow: Carnegie Moscow Center. Katz, M., & V. Fairfax. 2011. “Russia and the Arab spring.” Russian Analytical Digest 98(6): 4-6. Peterson, M. J. 1994. Protest politics, the media, and public and elite opinion during the Vietnam War. Indiana University. Mascolo, G., C. Neef& M. M. Schepp. 2010. “Moscow Wants to `Participate as an Equal Partner`.” Spiegel October 27. in https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/spiegel-interview-with-russia-s-defense-minister-moscow-wants-to-participate-as-an-equal-partner-a-725231.html. Latest update May 23, 2022. Elder, M. 2012.“Nervous Kremlin seeks to purge Russia`s internet of `western` influences.” The Guardian April 15. in https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2012/apr/15/kremlin-purge-russia-internet-western-influences. Latest update December 20, 2022. Medvedev, D . 2010. “Hu Jintao Meets with Russian President Medvedev .” MFA of PRC November 12. in https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/201011/t20101115_415947.html. Latest update June 28, 2022. MFA of PRC. 2016a. “Xi Jinping Meets with Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev of the Russian Federation.”. September 14. in https://www.mfa.gov.cn/ce/ceom//eng/zgyw/t1398456.htm. Latest update September 15, 2022. MFA of PRC. 2016b. “習近平會見俄羅斯聯邦安全會議秘書派特魯舍夫.” 9/14. in https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/wjb_673085/zzjg_673183/dozys_673577/xwlb_673579/201609/t20160914_7624047.shtml. Latest update October 01, 2022. MFA of PRC. 2011a. “中國國家主席胡錦濤和俄羅斯總統梅德維傑夫關於《中俄睦鄰友好合作條約》簽署10周年聯合聲明（全文）”. 6/17， https://www.mfa.gov.cn/web/gjhdq_676201/gj_676203/oz_678770/1206_679110/1207_679122/201106/t20110617_9337139.shtml. Latest update June 28, 2022. MFA of PRC. 2011b.“王岐山與俄副總理謝欽主持中俄能源談判代表會晤”.　10/11，in https://www.mfa.gov.cn/ce/celt/chn/xwdt/t866487.htm. Latest update July 19, 2022. MFA of PRC. 2011c. “中俄能源談判代表第七次會晤主要成果”. 6/02，in https://www.mfa.gov.cn/ce/cerw//chn/gnzyxw/t827260.htm. Latest update July 19, 2022. MFA of Russia. 2019a. “Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s interview with the daily Moskovsky Komsomolets” April 3. in https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/1457643/. Latest update September 23, 2022. MFA of Russia. 2019b. “Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s interview with the Italian Askanews agency.” December 5. in https://archive.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news//asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/3936393. Latest update September 23, 2022. Miller, A. 2012. “Vladimir Putin had a working meeting with Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller.” President of Russia October 29. in http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/16731. Latest update July 21, 2022. Milov, V., B. Nemtsov., V. Ryzhkov. & O. Shorina. 2011. “Putin. Corruption. An Independent White Paper.” Putin Results 10. Morgenthau, H. J. 2005. Politics among nations: The struggle for power and peace. New York: Alfred A. Knopf. Nemtsov, B. & V. Milov. 2008. “Putin and Gazprom: An independent expert report. Europe Energy Review.” Feeling EUROPE September 02. in https://www.feelingeurope.eu/Pages/Putin%20and%20GAzprom.html. Latest update June 10, 2022. Nikitinа, Y. 2014. “The" Color Revolutions" and" Arab Spring" in Russian Official Discourse.” Connections 14(1): 87-104. Obama, B. 2011. “Barack Obama says Asia-Pacific is `top US priority`.” BBC November 17. in https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-15715446. Latest update May 20, 2022. Onea, T. 2012. “Putting the ‘Classical’ in Neoclassical Realism: Neoclassical Realist Theories and US Expansion in the Post-Cold War.” International Relations 26(2): 139–64. Osborn, A. & J. Stubbs. 2017. “Russia`s defense minister has been showing up in unexpected places as the military increases its influence under Putin.” Business Insider December 14. in https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-military-putin-foreign-policy-2017-12. Latest update September 26, 2022. Overland, I. & G.Kubayeva. 2018. "Did China Bankroll Russia’s Annexation of Crimea? The Role of Sino-Russian Energy Relations." In: Blakkisrud, H., Wilson Rowe, E. (eds) Russia`s Turn to the East. Global Reordering. Palgrave Pivot, Cham: 95-118 Panetta, L. & B. Obama. 2012. Sustaining US global leadership: priorities for 21st century defense. Washington, DC: US Department of Defense, 1. Peake, J. S. 2001. “Presidential agenda setting in foreign policy.” Political Research Quarterly 54(1): 69-86. Peeva, A. 2018. “Did sanctions help Putin?” SSRN:1-52. Plumer, B. 2013. “A short timeline of deteriorating U.S.-Russia relations.” Washington Post August 08. in https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2013/08/08/ten-reasons-the-u-s-and-russia-are-at-odds/. Latest update May 05, 2022. President of Russia. 2008. “The Foreign Policy Concept Of The Russian Federation.” January 12. in http://en.kremlin.ru/supplement/4116. Latest update October 24, 2021. Putin, V. 2012a. “Vladimir Putin on Foreign Policy: Russia and the Changing World.” Valdai Discussion Club February 27. in https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/vladimir_putin_on_foreign_policy_russia_and_the_changing_world/. Latest update May 08, 2022. Putin, V. 2012b. “Executive Order on measures to implement foreign policy.” President of Russia May 7. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/15256. Latest update June 15, 2022. Putin, V. 2012c. “Vladimir Putin inaugurated as President of Russia.” President of Russia May 7. in http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/15224. Latest update May 12, 2022. Putin, V. 2013. “Vladimir Putin Meets with Members the Valdai International Discussion Club. Transcript of the Speech and the Meeting.” Valdai Discussion Club September 20. in https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/vladimir_putin_meets_with_members_the_valdai_international_discussion_club_transcript_of_the_speech_/. Latest update May 08, 2022. Putin, V. 2014a. “Address by President of the Russian Federation.” President of Russia March 18. in http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/20603. Latest update August 10, 2022. Putin, V. 2019. “Plenary session of St Petersburg International Economic Forum.” President of Russia June 7. in http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/60707. Latest update August 14, 2022. Putin’s list. 2022. “Patrushev Nikolai. ” in https://www.spisok-putina.org/en/personas/patrushev-2/. Latest update June 14, 2022. Ratner, M. & H. L. Greenley. 2020. “Power of Siberia: A Natural Gas Pipeline Brings Russia and China Closer.” In Focus 11514: 1-3. Reuters. 2014. “Russia`s Lavrov tells Kerry Crimea sanctions unacceptable.” Reuters March 19. in https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-lavrov-kerry-idUSBREA2H2D420140318. Latest update September 25, 2022. Reuters. 2017. “Russia Urges India to Back China`s Belt and Road Initiative.” VOA News December 11. in https://www.voanews.com/a/russia-urges-india-back-chinas-belt-road-initiative/4158907.html. Latest update September 25, 2022. Reuters. 2018. “Gazprom CEO Miller says proud of inclusion on U.S. sanctions list.” April 7. in https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-russia-sanctions-miller- idINR4N1RH019. Latest update September 29, 2022. RFE/RL. 2014. “Medvedev To Russians: Don`t `Panic` Over Ruble`s Fall.” December 10. in https://www.rferl.org/a/medvdev-says-no-panic-over-russian-rubles-fall/26735061.html. Latest update September 03, 2022. Romanova, T. 2012. “Neoclassical realism and today’s Russia.” Russia in Global Affairs 10(3): 21-34. Rosati, J. A. 1981. “Developing a systematic decision-making framework: bureaucratic politics in perspective.” World Politics 33(2): 234-252. Rosati, J. A. 1995. “A cognitive approach to the study of foreign policy.” Foreign policy analysis: Continuity and change in its second generation: 49-70. Rose, G. 1998. “Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy.” World Politics 51(1): 144-172. Russia Today. 2017. “Big surge in cyberattacks on Russia amid US hacking　　hysteria – Russian security chief.” January 15. in https://www.rt.com/news/373764-surge-hacking-attacks-russia/. Latest update August 30, 2022. Schearf, D. 2016. “Medvedev: Russia’s Economy Must Prepare for Worst-Case Scenario.” VOA News January 13. in https://www.voanews.com/a/medvedew-russia-economy-mustprepare-for-worst-case-scenario/3143417.html. Latest update September 21, 2022. Schwartz, P. 2014. “Evolution of Sino-Russian defense cooperation since the Cold War.” The Asan Forum June 13.in https://theasanforum.org/evolution-of-sino-russian-defense-cooperation-since-the-cold-war/. Latest update July 05, 2022. Schweller, R. 1994. “Bandwagoning for profit: Bringing the revisioniststate back in.” International Security 19(1): 72-107. Sechin, I. 2012. “Meeting with Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin.” in President of Russia. in http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/16696. Latest update May 30, 2022. Sharyshev, A. V. 2016. “Strategic partnership between Russia and China:importance and sustainability of bilateral relations.” Сравнительная политика 2(23): 112-117. Sherwin, E. 2016. “ Calls for Medvedev`s resignation grow louder. ” DW November 8. in https://www.dw.com/en/calls-for-medvedevs-resignation-grow-louder/a-19466511. Latest update September 21, 2022. Shevardnadze, S. 2019. “Like in the Wild West, US tells Europe to buy American natural gas at gunpoint – Kremlin spokesman.” Russia Today June 3. in https://www.rt.com/shows/sophieco/460929-peskov-kremlin-spokesman-interview/. Latest update October 04, 2022. Shlapentokh, D. 2009. “China, Russia, And The Risk Of Explosion In Central Asia.” CACI Analyst July 15. in http://www.cacianalyst.org/publications/analytical-articles/item/11878-analytical-articles-caci-analyst-2009-7-15-art-11878.html. Latest update July 5, 2022. Smith, N. R. 2016. “The EU under a Realist Scope: Employing a Neoclassical Realist Framework for the Analysis of the EU’s Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement Offer to Ukraine. International Relations, 30(1): 29-48. Snyder, R. C., H. W. Bruck. & B. Sapin. 1954. “Decision-making as an approach to the study of international politics,” Foreign Policy Analysis Series, No. 3. Soldatkin, V.& A. Callus. 2013. “Rosneft pays out in historic TNK-BP deal completion.” Reuters March 21. in https://www.reuters.com/article/us-rosneft-tnkbp-deal-idUSBRE92K0IZ20130321. Latest update May 30, 2022. Soldatkin, V. 2011. “UPDATE 1-Russia`s Transneft says may sue China`s CNPC.” Reuters April 21. https://www.reuters.com/article/transneft-china- idINLDE73J1Q220110420. Latest update July 29, 2022. Soldatkin, V. 2012. “Rosneft finalizes deal to buy TNK-BP stake from AAR.” Reuters December 12. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-rosneft-aar- idUSBRE8BB0EY20121212. Latest update May 30, 2022. Sprout, H. & M. Sprout. 1956. Man-milieu relationship hypotheses in the context of international politics. Center of International Studies, Princeton University. Sputnik. 2017. “俄總統新聞秘書:俄不會為換取解除西方制裁就克里米亞做任何交易.” March 16. in https://sputniknews.cn/20170316/1022108129.html. Latest update September 22, 2022. Staalesen, A. 2015. “Sanctions limiting Russian Arctic development, says Patrushev.” The Barents Observer November 4. in https://thebarentsobserver.com/ru/industry/2015/11/sanctions-limiting-russian-arctic-development-says-patrushev. Latest update September 17, 2022. Stanovaya, T. 2020. “The Putin Regime Cracks.” Carnegie Moscow Center 7: 1-11. Starr, H. 1988. “Rosenau, pre‐theories and the evolution of the comparative study of foreign policy.” International interactions, 14(1): 3-15. Steinsson, S. 2017. “Neoclassical Realism in the North Atlantic: Explaining Behaviors and Outcomes in the Cod Wars.” Foreign Policy Analysis 13(3): 599-617. Talukdar, I. 2017. “Russia`s New Foreign Policy 2016.” in Indian Council of World Affairs. in https://www.icwa.in/show_content.php?lang=1&level=3&ls_id=577&lid=519. Latest update October 09, 2022. Tass. 2014a. “Putin gives start to Power of Siberia gas pipeline construction.” September 1. in https://tass.com/economy/747552. Latest update September 30, 2022. Tass. 2014b. “Russia-China military-technical cooperation of paramount importance — defense minister.” November 19. in https://tass.com/russia/760464. Latest update October 07, 2022. Tass. 2016. “Defense minister says Russia-China military cooperation consolidates peace in Eurasia.” November 23. in https://tass.com/defense/914051. Latest update October 07, 2022. Tass. 2018. “Russian-Chinese ties at their best level in history, says defense minister.” October 19. in https://tass.com/defense/1026819. Latest update October 07, 2022. Tass. 2019. “Патрушев: ЕАЭС состоялся как структура с общей стратегией экономического развития. ” November 14. in https://tass.ru/ekonomika/7115167. Latest update October 01, 2022. Tichý, L. 2014. “Security and Foreign Policy of Dmitry Medvedev in the Period 2008–2012.” The Journal of Slavic Military Studies, 27(4): 533-552. Treisman, D. 2014. “Putin`s popularity since 2010: why did support for the Kremlin plunge, then stabilize?.” Post-Soviet Affairs 30(5): 370-388. Treisman, D. 2016. “Why Putin Took Crimea: The Gambler in the Kremlin.” Foreign Affairs 95: 47-54. Tremin, D. 2012. True Partners?: How Russia and China See Each Other. Centre for European Reform. Great College Street, London. Tynkkynen, V. P. 2016. “Energy as power—Gazprom, gas infrastructure, and geo-governmentality in Putin’s Russia.” Slavic Review, 75(2): 374-395. Van der Hoeven, M. 2013. World energy outlook 2012. Tokyo, Japan: International Energy Agency. Walt, S. M. 1990. The origins of alliances. New York: Cornell Univer-sity Press. Waltz, K. N. 2010. Theory of international politics. Waveland Press. Waltz, K. 2018. Man, the state, and war. In Man, the State, and War. Columbia University Press. Weber, J. 2021. “Fredrik Westerlund: The role of the military in Putin’s foreign policy. An overview of current research.” Stockholm: Swedish Defence Research Agency(FOI). SIRIUS–Zeitschrift für Strategische Analysen 5(4), 432-432. Willerton, J. P. 2005. “Putin and the hegemonic presidency.” Developments in Russian politics 6: 18-39. Xinhua. 2015. “China unveils action plan on Belt and Road Initiative.” The State Council The People`s Republic Of China March 28. in https://web.archive.org/web/20220423194055/http://english.www.gov.cn/news/top_news/2015/03/28/content_281475079055789.htm. Latest update August 05, 2022. Xinhua. 2017. “推動共建絲綢之路經濟帶和21世紀海上絲綢之路的願景與　　行動”. April 7. in http://www.beltandroadforum.org/BIG5/n100/2017/0407/c27- 22.html. Latest update August 05, 2022. Yu, L. 2019. “Big surge in cyberattacks on Russia amid US hacking hysteria –Russian security chief.” Xinhua June 6. in http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-06/06/c_138122568.htm. Latest update October 02, 2022. Zakaria, F. 1992. “Realism and Domestic Politics: A Review Essay.” International Security, 17(1): 177-198. Zhdannikov, D. 2019. “Russia`s Sechin accuses U.S. of using energy as political weapon.” Reuters June 6. in https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-forum-sechin-usa-idUKKCN1T70V0. Latest update September 27, 2022. Ziegler, C. E. 2012. “Conceptualizing sovereignty in Russian foreign policy: Realist and constructivist perspectives.” International Politics 49(4): 400-417. Ziegler, C. E. 2018. “Russian Diplomacy: Challenging the West.” Seton Hall Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations 19(1): 74-90. Большая Азия. 2018. “Beijing Hosted A Meeting Between The Leader Of China And The Head Of The Presidential Administration Of Russia.” October 20. in https://bigasia.ru/en/content/news/politics/beijing-hosted-a-meeting-between-the-leader-of-china-and-the-head-of-the-presidential-administration/. Latest update October 04, 2022. Дун, Ц. 2019. “Российско-китайское военно-политическое сотрудничество в Северо-Восточной Азии как составляющая стратегическогопартнёрства.” Вестник Забайкальского государственного университета 25(6): 91-100. Карабьянц, А. 2017. “Для Роснефти Восток оказался лучше Запада.” Прайм November 22. in https://1prime.ru/articles/20171122/828169228.html. Latest update October 11, 2022. Краснов, И. 2019. “«Транснефть» купила себе элитный небоскрёб за счёт россиян Источник.” Версия Источник. in https://versia.ru/transneft-kupila-sebe-yelitnyj-neboskryob-za-schyot-rossiyan. Latest update October 19, 2022. Латухина, К. 2019. “В Кремле оценили риски торговой войны США и КНР.” RGRU May 14. in https://rg.ru/2019/05/14/v-kremle-ocenili-riski-torgovoj-vojny-ssha-i-knr.html. Latest update September 22, 2022. Медведев, Д. А. 2011. “Дмитрий Медведев провёл во Владикавказе заседание Национального антитеррористического комитета.” President of Russia February 22. in http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/10408. Latest update December 02, 2022. Медведев, Д. А. 2018. “23-я регулярная встреча глав правительств России и Китая.” Правительство России November 8. in http://government.ru/news/34600/. Latest update October 02, 2022. Медведев, Д. А. 2019. “24-я регулярная встреча глав правительств России и Китая.” Правительство России September 18. in http://government.ru/news/37872/. Latest update October 02, 2022. Морозов, О. 2016. “Вайно сменил Иванова на посту Главы Администрации Президента.” Facebook August 12. in https://www.facebook.com/oleq.megafon/posts/284000371961927. Latest update September 26,2022. Подобедова, Л. 2013a. “5 главных проектов и противников Игоря Сечина.” Republic June 17. in https://republic.ru/posts/31621. Latest update June 05, 2022. Подобедова, Л. 2013b. “Токарев против Сечина: кто выиграет борьбу в кремлевских коридорах? ” Republic May 17. in https://republic.ru/posts/31077. Latest update October 19, 2022. РИА Новости. 2011. “Блогер Навальный служит интересам противников ВСТО- глава Транснефти.” January 13. in https://ria.ru/20110113/321113277.html. Latest update May 30, 2022. РИА Новости. 2019. “Россия и Китай намерены укреплять партнерство по безопасности.” December 4. in https://ria.ru/20191204/1561939231.html. Latest update October 01, 2022. Ростовский, М. 2019. “Сергей Шойгу рассказал, как спасали российскую армию Министр обороны РФ: «Мы сразу договорились — надо прекратить врать!».” MKRU September 22. in https://www.mk.ru/politics/2019/09/22/sergey-shoygu-rasskazal-kak-spasali-rossiyskuyu-armiyu.html. Latest update September 26,2022. Сугробов, К. 2013. “«Хотелки» Сечина «Транснефть» и «Роснефть» поссорились из-за Китая.” Лента May 27. in https://lenta.ru/articles/2013/05/27/rsnft/.Latest update October 19, 2022. Шлейнов, Р. 2016. “Очень богатый зять Как устроен бизнес родственников главы «Транснефти» Николая Токарева. Расследование Романа Шлейнова.” Медуза September 27. in https://meduza.io/feature/2016/09/27/ochen-bogatyy-zyat. Latest update May 30, 2022. Шойгу, С. 2014. “В Пекине Состоялась Встреча Министра Обороны России Генерала Армии Сергея Шойгу С Заместителем Председателя Центрального Военного Совета Кнр Генерал-Полковником Сюй Циляном.” АРМИЯ-2023 November 18. in https://www.rusarmyexpo.ru/28683.html. Latest update October 07, 2022. Шойгу, С. 2017. “Шойгу: Стратегическое партнерство с Китаем – безусловный приоритет.” Фонтанка December 8. in https://www.fontanka.ru/2017/12/08/069/. Latest update October 07, 2022.
Description:	碩士國立政治大學俄羅斯研究所 108263004
Source URI:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108263004
Data Type:	thesis
DOI:	10.6814/NCCU202201767
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Russian Studies] Theses

Files in This Item:

File	Description	Size	Format
300401.pdf		3686Kb	Adobe PDF2	102	View/Open

社群 sharing

Loading...