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    题名: 扈從、避險、抗衡、孤立？初探臺灣四種對中政策態度的民意基礎
    Bandwagoning, Hedging, Balancing, or Isolationism? Probing Taiwanese Public Opinion toward These Four China Policy Alternatives
    作者: 薛健吾
    Hsueh, Alex Chien-wu
    贡献者: 國際事務學院
    关键词: 扈從;避險;抗衡;孤立;臺灣國家安全調查
    Bandwagon;Hedge;Balance;Isolationism;Taiwan national security survey;TNSS
    日期: 2022-03
    上传时间: 2022-10-20 16:20:51 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 隨著大國競爭的國際局勢逐漸形成，在兩強競爭下的中、小型國家如何在「抗衡」、「扈從」、「避險」或「孤立」等外交政策選項之間做出抉擇，也成為當代國際關係研究的重要問題。然而，在過去的研究中，研究外交政策選擇的文獻缺乏對「微觀民意支持基礎」的討論，而研究臺灣民意的文獻則較少討論民眾的「對中政策態度偏好」。據此，本文的目的，即為根據文獻的建議，對於各種可能影響到臺灣民眾「對中政策態度偏好」的因素進行一個實證上的初探，試圖把這兩個部分的文獻初步連結起來。本文分析2019年和2020年「臺灣國家安全調查」的民調資料，得到幾個主要發現。第一，在這四種不同的外交政策選項中，支持「孤立」的受訪者比率最少，支持「避險」的受訪者比率相對穩定，支持「抗衡」或「扈從」的受訪者比率則有出現較大的變動。第二，統計分析發現，若以「支持避險政策」的受訪者作為對照組，則：（1）支持泛綠陣營者、傾向獨立者、認為自己是臺灣人者、認為中國可能會對利用經濟對臺灣提出政治要求者，以及認為美國在臺灣不宣布獨立的情況之下被中國攻打時將會出兵幫助臺灣者，較可能支持「抗衡」的政策；（2）認為自己是臺灣人者、認為中國可能會對利用經濟對臺灣提出政治要求者，以及認為美國在臺灣不宣布獨立的情況之下被中國攻打時將會出兵保護臺灣者，較不可能支持「扈從」的政策，較有可能支持「抗衡」的政策；（3）教育程度愈高者，愈不可能支持「孤立」的政策，愈有可能支持「避險」的政策。此外，2020年度的資料顯示，愈年長的世代愈可能有明顯的「抗衡」的立場，而愈年輕的世代則是愈有可能支持「避險」的政策，這個現象是否會成為未來臺灣民意的趨勢，亦值得在未來的研究中持續探討。
    As great power competitions become more and more salient around the world, how the secondary powers choose between bandwagoning, hedging, balancing, and isolationism becomes an important research question in contemporary international relations studies. However, previous research on foreign policy making seldom discusses the influence of public opinions, while literature on Taiwan`s public opinions barely mentions people`s China policy preferences among these four alternatives. Therefore, the goal of this research is to investigate the factors that can affect Taiwanese people`s foreign policy choice based on suggestions of the literature in order to bridge these two different literatures. After analyzing the 2019 and 2020 Taiwan National Security Survey data, this study has the following main findings. First, among these four China policy alternatives, ＂isolationism＂ has the fewest supporters, ＂hedging＂ has relatively stable supporters, while the popularity of ＂balancing＂ and ＂bandwagoning＂ are much more fluctuated over time. Second, statistical analysis demonstrates that, compared to people who prefer the ＂hedging＂ alternative: (1) Pan-green supporters, those who are pro-independence, those who identify themselves as Taiwanese, those who think China will use economic leverage to request Taiwan`s political concession, and those who think the United States will come to save Taiwan if the latter is attacked by China without declaring independence, are more likely to support the ＂balancing＂ alternative; (2) those who identify themselves as Taiwanese, those who think China will use economic leverage to request Taiwan`s political concession, and those who think the United States will come to save Taiwan if the latter is attacked by China without declaring independence are more likely to support ＂balancing＂ and less likely to support the ＂bandwagoning＂ alternative; (3) people with higher education level are less likely to support for ＂isolationism＂ and are more likely to support the ＂hedging＂ alternative. Besides, the 2020 data also shows that the older generations are more likely to have clear ＂balancing＂ preferences, while the younger generations are more likely to support the ＂hedging＂ alternative. Whether this is a long-lasting development that affect the future Taiwan politics is an important research question in need of further investigating.
    關聯: 台灣民主季刊, Vol.19, No.1, pp.83-133
    数据类型: article
    显示于类别:[國際事務學院] 期刊論文

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