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| Title: | 新冠疫情危機中之股市個案研究
A case study on the performance of the US stock market during the Covid-19 pandemic |
| Authors: | 周珣
Chou, Syun |
| Contributors: | 周行一
Chow, Hsing-Yi
周珣
Chou, Syun |
| Keywords: | 新冠疫情
美國股市
理性預期
行為財務學
市場流動性
Covid-19 pandemic
US stock market
Rational expectation
Behavioral finance
Liquidity |
| Date: | 2022 |
| Issue Date: | 2022-10-05 09:09:23 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本文使用2020年初至2021年底，美國市場的資料，參考新冠疫情相關文獻及政府的各項政策回應，並以股價的三大因素，投資人的理性預期(Rational expectation)、行為財務學(Behavioral finance)和市場流動性(Liquidity)為框架，使用個案研究方法彙整分析，新冠疫情下美國股市指數漲跌的原因。
有鑒於2021年底，市場泡沫化風聲四起，本文以SPDR S&P 500 ETF為例，套用高登成長模型，進行敏感性分析，並參考席勒本益比和超額調整後的本益比報酬等估值指標，推論美股目前仍落在合理範圍，但應重視日益飆升的通膨率。另外，股票市場瞬息萬變，當前市場存在龐大流動性，若未來遭遇不可預期之衝擊，導致流動性完全退潮，可能造成資本市場的劇烈波動。
Based on the data and information from 2020 to the end of 2021, as well as reviewing relevant literatures and various government policy responses, this research integrates and analyzes main reasons for the crash and surge of the US stock market during the Covid-19 pandemic. Our analysis hinges on the three factors affecting stock market performance including rational expectations, behavioral finance and liquidity.
There had been assertions of stock market bubbles before the end of 2021. We employ the Gordon constant dividend growth model, Shiller P/E ratio and Excess CAPE yield to address whether the stock market was over-valued or not. We conclude that the stock market likely was not over-valued as of November 2021. However, since the market liquidity had been very high by historical standard before 2021, if unexpected shocks occur in the future, the US stock market will experience high volatility. |
| Reference: | 英文參考文獻
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中文參考文獻
中央銀行(2021)，主要央行因應新冠肺炎疫情之貨幣政策工具比較及相關影響。金融穩定報告。
中央銀行(2021)，後疫情時代主要經濟體貨幣政策與財政政策的協調問題，中華民國中央銀行全球資訊網，https://www.cbc.gov.tw/tw/cp-302-132478-df984-1.html。
中央銀行(2021)，新冠肺炎危機vs.全球金融危機：起因、影響及因應對策與啟示，貨幣金融知識專區，https://reurl.cc/OAglv9。
周行一(2022)。中美匯流大未來：地緣政治、宏觀經濟、企業經營趨勢。臺北：遠見天下文化。 |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
財務管理學系
109357014 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109357014 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| DOI: | 10.6814/NCCU202201513 |
| Appears in Collections: | [財務管理學系] 學位論文
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