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| Title: | 新古典現實主義視角下的美國伊朗政策：歐巴馬與川普政府
A Neoclassical Realist Perspective on U.S. Foreign Policies Toward Iran: The Obama and Trump Administrations |
| Authors: | 紀韋如
Chi, Wei-Ju |
| Contributors: | 崔進揆
Tsui, Chin-Kuei
紀韋如
Chi, Wei-Ju |
| Keywords: | 美伊關係
新古典現實主義
歐巴馬政府
川普政府
外交政策分析
US-Iran Relations
Neoclassical Realism
The Obama Administration
The Trump Administration
Foreign Policy Analysis |
| Date: | 2022 |
| Abstract: | 研究背景：
自 1979 年伊朗革命以來，美國和伊朗之間始終不存在正式的外交關係。幾十年來，美國一直將伊朗視為中東的生存威脅，雙方長期存在難以化解的敵意和不信任。隨著伊拉克薩達姆•海珊政權倒台後什葉派擴張主義的出現，伊朗積極成為主要地緣政治戰略參與者，同時繼續在該地區展開恐怖主義、核子武器發展活動。 從《聯合全面行動計劃》（JCPOA）協議下，歐巴馬政府所形成的國際制裁和政治對話，乃至川普政府祭出的最大經濟制裁施壓，美國對伊朗政策不斷地受到國際、國內、個人因素之影響。
研究目的：
本論文主要分析美國歐巴馬和川普政府期間，對於伊朗外交政策所遭遇之外部和內部變數。自1979年伊朗革命及人質危機，多年以來美伊關係始終呈現敵對狀態，2015年歐巴馬政府所達成之伊朗核子計畫協議（JCPOA）被國際社會視為美伊關係之破冰。隨著2017年川普贏得美國總統大選，美國宣布撤出伊朗核武協議，重啟對於伊朗之經濟制裁，美伊雙方關係再次惡化。本研究乃旨在探討2009至 2021年美國對伊朗外交政策發生變化的原因，凸顯歐巴馬至川普政府對於伊朗態度的重大轉變。
理論架構：
本研究採用「新古典現實主義」作為理論架構，納入國際體系因素、國內政治因素和決策者知覺及評估因素，探討歐巴馬和川普政府如何各自採取不同的方法，來應對伊朗帶來的威脅和挑戰，以達到自身國家利益極大化。首先，國際體系壓力作為「自變數」，強調美國於制定伊朗政策過程中所面臨的主要外部刺激。其次，國內壓力、領導人的世界觀和對伊朗的看法，則為影響外交決策過程的「中介變數」。最後，受到外部、內部刺激之影響，美國對伊朗外交政策之形塑，則應視為「應變數」。
研究發現：
美國對伊朗外交政策的變化，往往伴隨著「體系壓力」作為主要因素。另一方面，國內政治和領導人世界觀及看法，則扮演著「次要因素」，間接性地影響美伊政策之形成。研究發現，歐巴馬和川普政府伊朗政策之顯著差異，顯示伊朗在中東影響力不斷地增長，導致區域秩序發生變化的結果。在歐巴馬政府時代，伊朗的影響力僅止於不威脅美方利益。川普執政期間，伊朗逐步擴大對於葉門、敘利亞和伊拉克的政治及軍事干預，構成美方認定之急迫性威脅。綜上所述，「外部因素」加上美國國會、遊說團體、領導者世界觀和對伊朗認知等「內部因素」，最終促使川普政府做出重大轉變，與歐巴馬政府之伊朗政策形成鮮明對比。
研究價值：
本研究之亮點在於透過「新古典現實主義」審視美伊關係之動態變化，納入國際體系、美國國會、華府決策菁英、以色列利益團體、領導人世界觀和對伊朗的看法等因素，檢視歐巴馬和川普政府，如何在美伊關係擺盪中，針對所遭遇之外部和內部刺激，形塑不同之伊朗政策，盼以提供更為全面性的觀點分析美國伊朗政策走向。
Background
Since the 1979 Iranian revolution, there have been no formal diplomatic relations between the United States and Iran. For decades, the United States has viewed Iran as an existential threat in the Middle East with long-standing hostility and mistrust. However, with the emergence of Shia expansionism after the collapse of Saddam Hussein, Iran is becoming the major geopolitical strategy player while continuing its terrorist-related and nuclear development activities in the region. From international sanctions and political dialogues under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement to maximum pressure, the U.S. policy for Iran has been formulated on the shifting sands of international, domestic, and individual factors.
Purpose
This dissertation analyzes U.S. foreign policy’s external and internal variables toward Iran under the Obama and Trump administrations. For decades, U.S.-Iranian relations have historically been very hostile, except for the rapprochements witnessed under the Obama administration with JCPOA nuclear deal signed in 2015. However, a significant shift was taken in the U.S. attitude toward Iran after President Trump won the presidency in 2017. It was highlighted by the withdrawal from the agreement and the re-imposition of maximum economic sanctions on Iran. Thus, this study aims to discover what brings about the changes in U.S. foreign policy toward Iran from 2009-2021.
Theoretical Approach
In this research, neoclassical realism is employed as the theoretical approach – which considers the nature of the international system, domestic politics, and the leader’s image. First, international system pressure serves as the independent variable to study the main external stimuli faced by the Obama and Trump administrations. Second, domestic pressure and leaders’ worldviews and perceptions of Iran are the intervening variables leading to the decision-making process. Last, U.S. foreign policy toward Iran is considered to be the dependent variable. To maximize the U.S. national interest, different approaches are introduced under the Obama and Trump administrations against the threats and challenges posed by Iran.
Findings
The study concludes that the change in the U.S. foreign policy toward Iran is accompanied by systemic pressure as the main factor. On the other hand, domestic politics and leaders’ worldviews and perceptions of Iran play a minor role in affecting the U.S.-Iran policy formation. In other words, a stark difference in U.S. Iran policy under Obama and Trump administrations is a result of the change in regional order with Iran’s growing influence in the Middle East. In the era of the Obama administration, Iran’s influence was limited not to threaten the American interest. During Trump’s presidency, Iran’s political and military intervention in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq has become an imminent threat to the United States. These external variables mainly contribute to the significant shift in U.S. policy toward Iran. Meanwhile, domestic pressure from both U.S. Congress and lobby groups, along with dissimilar leadership, worldviews, and perceptions of Iran, indirectly result in contrasting U.S. policies toward Iran between Obama and Trump administrations.
Value
The value of this research lies in examining the external and internal stimuli faced by the Obama and Trump administrations with different approaches to dealing with Iran between rapprochement and hostility. It gives a more comprehensive point of view to examine the dynamics of U.S-Iran relations through neoclassical realism – considering the factors of the international system, U.S. institutions, Washington elites, U.S. leaders’ ideology, worldviews, and perceptions of Iran. |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
國際研究英語碩士學位學程(IMPIS)
108862001 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108862001 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [國際研究英語碩士學位學程] 學位論文
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| 200101.pdf | 1555Kb | Adobe PDF2 | 136 | View/Open |
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