Loading...
|
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/141753
|
| Title: | 台灣振興三倍券之總體經濟效果分析
Macroeconomic Effects of Triple Stimulus Vouchers in Taiwan |
| Authors: | 楊雅茹
Yang, Ya-Ru |
| Contributors: | 朱琇妍
Chu, Shiou-Yen
楊雅茹
Yang, Ya-Ru |
| Keywords: | 振興三倍券
民間消費
新型冠狀病毒肺炎
財政政策
動態隨機一般均衡模型
Triple Stimulus Vouchers
Private consumption
COVID-19
Fiscal policy
DSGE model |
| Date: | 2022 |
| Issue Date: | 2022-09-02 15:28:57 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 2019年末爆發的新型冠狀病毒肺炎 (COVID-19) 疫情造成全球經濟嚴重衰退，亦讓台灣的民間消費出現歷年來最低迷的景況。中央政府為求刺激國內消費而決定發放振興三倍券，期望能藉此提振消費者信心與帶動受疫情影響產業之營收表現。
本研究建構了一個動態隨機一般均衡 (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium，DSGE) 模型，並透過模擬台灣振興三倍券政策的衝擊，以探討此政策對總體經濟的影響。研究結果發現，振興三倍券政策在短期內可以達到活絡內需市場的效果，並提高民間消費量。其中，非耐久財的消費成長相較於耐久財更為顯著。經濟體中的總體通貨膨脹率亦提高。此外，模擬成果也觀察到此政策能提升勞動投入量，促進就業市場回溫。
The outbreak of COVID-19 in late 2019 caused a severe recession in the global economy, and Taiwan`s private consumption was at its lowest level in history. In order to spur domestic consumption, the central government issued Triple Stimulus Vouchers, hoping to increase consumer confidence and boost the revenue performance of industries affected by the pandemic.
This paper develops a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model and simulates the shock of Taiwan`s Triple Stimulus Vouchers program to explore the macroeconomic effects of this policy. The results indicate that the Triple Stimulus Vouchers program could achieve the effect of activating the domestic demand market in the short term and increase private consumption. Among them, the growth of non-durables is more significant than that of durables. The overall inflation rate also rose. In addition, the simulation results also revealed that this policy contributed to the increase of labor input and promoted the recovery of the job market. |
| Reference: | 中央銀行 (2020)。世界各國為因應新冠肺炎之衝擊，採取對策(例如:採行的QE與減稅政策等)對我國財政、金融、經濟整體環境所造成之影響與政府因應之道。
毛慶生 (2014)。總體經濟學:古典新論（一）:毛慶生出版：雙葉書廊總經銷。
行政院主計總處綜合統計處 (2020)。國民所得統計及經濟成長。民111年7月10日，取自：https://www.stat.gov.tw/ct.asp?xItem=46217&ctNode=497&mp=4。
行政院新聞傳播處 (2021)。紓困振興措施（1.0-3.0）成果。民111年7月10日，取自：https://www.ey.gov.tw/Page/5A8A0CB5B41DA11E/3910401a-4202-411a-9877-bba04d10a1df。
吳天佑 (2021)。以RBC理論探討COVID-19之經濟及政策影響。經濟研究年刊，21，209-240。
汪震亞 (2021)。各國因應COVID-19(武漢肺炎)疫情對經貿衝擊之對策及啟示. 經濟研究年刊，21，98-142。
林賢參 (2020)。COVID-19(武漢肺炎)疫情對日本政經情勢的影響。展望與探索月刊，18(4)，23-29。
黃俞寧 (2013)。動態隨機一般均衡架構在台灣貨幣政策制定上之應用。中央銀行季刊，35(1)，3-33。
經濟部 (2021)。振興三倍券執行成效評估書面報告。民111年1月29日，取自：http://www3.nccu.edu.tw/~joe/Comm/moea3foldcoouponreviewreport_20210731.pdf
經濟部 (2021)。振興三倍券領用、兌付及資源配置執行情形書面檢討報告。
經濟部統計處 (2020)。109年7月批發、零售及餐飲業營業額統計。批發、零售及餐飲業營業額統計。民111年7月10日，取自：https://www.moea.gov.tw/Mns/dos/bulletin/Bulletin.aspx?kind=8&html=1&menu_id=6727&bull_id=7626
經濟部統計處 (2020)。振興措施助攻，藥粧零售業7月起重回成長軌道。產業經濟統計簡訊。民111年7月10日，取自：https://www.moea.gov.tw/Mns/dos/bulletin/Bulletin.aspx?kind=9&html=1&menu_id=18808&bull_id=7825
經濟部統計處 (2020)。當前經濟情勢概況 (專題：後疫情時期我國零售及餐飲業之情勢)。民111年7月22日，取自：https://www.moea.gov.tw/Mns/dos/bulletin/Bulletin.aspx?kind=23&html=1&menu_id=10212&bull_id=7838
管中閔與邱永翔 (2010)。臺灣動態隨機一般均衡模型 (DSGE) 建立與政策評估。行政院經濟建設委員會98年度委託研究計畫。
顏郁倫 (2016)。台灣消費券的總體效果（碩士論文）。國立中山大學經濟學研究所，高雄市。
Baker, S. R., Farrokhnia, R. A., Meyer, S., Pagel, M., & Yannelis, C. (2020). Income, liquidity, and the consumption response to the 2020 economic stimulus payments. Retrieved from
Brzoza‐Brzezina, M., & Kolasa, M. (2013). Bayesian evaluation of DSGE models with financial frictions. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 45(8), 1451-1476.
Bui, D., Dräger, L., Hayo, B., & Nghiem, G. (2022). The effects of fiscal policy on households during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Thailand and Vietnam. World Dev, 153, 105828. doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2022.105828
Calvo, G. A. (1983). Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework. Journal of Monetary Economics, 12(3), 383-398.
Cantelmo, A., & Melina, G. (2018). Monetary policy and the relative price of durable goods. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 86, 1-48. doi:10.1016/j.jedc.2017.10.006
Carroll, C. D., Crawley, E., Slacalek, J., & White, M. N. (2020). Modeling the consumption response to the CARES Act. Retrieved from
Christelis, D., Georgarakos, D., Jappelli, T., & Kenny, G. (2020). The Covid-19 crisis and consumption: survey evidence from six EU countries. Available at SSRN 3751097.
Chu, S.-Y. (2018). Macroeconomic policies and housing market in Taiwan. International Review of Economics & Finance, 58, 404-421. doi:10.1016/j.iref.2018.05.002
Corrado, L., Grassi, S., & Paolillo, A. (2021). Identifying Economic Shocks in a Rare Disaster Environment. CEIS Tor Vergata Research Paper Series, 19(5).
Fama, E. F. (2021). Stimulus and the Permanent Income Hypothesis. Chicago Booth Research Paper(21-08).
Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús and Charles I. Jones. (2020). Macroeconomic Outcomes and COVID-19: A Progress Report. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall, 111-166.
IMF. (2021). Fault Lines Widen in the Global Recovery. WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK UPDATE. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2021/07/27/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2021
Junior, Celso J. Costa, Alejandro C. Garcia-Cintado, and Karlo Marques Junior. (2021). Macroeconomic policies and the pandemic-driven recession. International Review of Economics & Finance, 72, 438-465. doi:10.1016/j.iref.2020.12.010
Kubota, S., Onishi, K., & Toyama, Y. (2021). Consumption responses to COVID-19 payments: Evidence from a natural experiment and bank account data. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 188, 1-17. doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2021.05.006
Leeper, E. M., Walker, T. B., & Yang, S. C. S. (2013). Fiscal foresight and information flows. Econometrica, 81(3), 1115-1145.
Lin, Y. C. (2021). Business cycle fluctuations in Taiwan—A Bayesian DSGE analysis. Journal of Macroeconomics, 70, 103349.
McKibbin, W., & Fernando, R. (2021). The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios. Asian Economic Papers, 20(2), 1-30. doi:10.1162/asep_a_00796
Monacelli, T. (2009). New Keynesian models, durable goods, and collateral constraints. Journal of Monetary Economics, 56(2), 242-254. doi:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2008.09.013
Park, S. (2022). Permanent Income Hypothesis with Income Disaster and Asset Pricing. Available at SSRN 4018395.
Teo, W. L. (2009). Estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the Taiwanese economy. Pacific Economic Review, 14(2), 194-231.
Wang, P.-Y. (2021). Does Taiwan Need a Macro-Prudential Policy? How to Do It? How to Coordinate with Monetary Policy? Academia Economic Papers, 49(1), 1-40. |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
108255013 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108255013 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| DOI: | 10.6814/NCCU202201439 |
| Appears in Collections: | [財政學系] 學位論文
|
Files in This Item:
| File |
Description |
Size | Format | |
|---|
| 501301.pdf | | 2698Kb | Adobe PDF2 | 134 | View/Open |
|
All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.
|
