政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/141746
English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  全文笔数/总笔数 : 113324/144300 (79%)
造访人次 : 51126099      在线人数 : 890
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
搜寻范围 查询小技巧：
  • 您可在西文检索词汇前后加上"双引号"，以获取较精准的检索结果
  • 若欲以作者姓名搜寻，建议至进阶搜寻限定作者字段，可获得较完整数据
    •  进阶搜寻


    请使用永久网址来引用或连结此文件: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/141746


    题名: 經濟衰退對於應屆畢業生之職涯衝擊
    The career effects of graduating in a recession
    作者: 柯香聞
    Ko, Hsiang-Wen
    贡献者: 黃柏鈞
    Huang, Po-Chun
    柯香聞
    Ko, Hsiang-Wen
    关键词: 經濟衰退
    初入勞動市場
    失業率
    薪資損失
    recession
    entering the labor market
    unemployment rate
    wage loss
    日期: 2022
    上传时间: 2022-09-02 15:27:26 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本文採用2004年至2018年間的華人家庭動態資料庫的資料，探討在經濟衰退期間進入職場對青年隨後在勞動市場表現上的影響。實證結果顯示，景氣衰退期間進入職場的不幸青年初始薪資損失為21%，和相對於失業率低一個百分點進入職場的青年在初始工資上有顯著的差異。每當失業率上升一個百分點時，隨著年資的累積，工作經驗的報酬有顯著正向影響，背後所隱含著在景氣衰退下進入職場的青年需花16年的工作經驗，縮短與景氣較好時進入職場的青年薪資報酬間的差距。另外，將初入職場的青年依照不同個人特性去做分組，其中發現男性或教育程度為高中或在學時期選擇理組科系較容易受到景氣衰退的影響且累積的薪資折現損失較大。
    This article estimates the impact of entering the workforce during a recession on youth`s subsequent labor market performance using data from the 2004 and 2018 Panel Study of Family Dynamics（PSFD）. The empirical results show that youth entering the workforce during recessions lost 21% of their initial wages, significantly lower than the initial wages for youth entering the workforce when the unemployment rate is one percentage point lower. With the accumulation of seniority, the remuneration of work experience has a significant positive impact, which implies that it takes 16 years of work experience for the wage loss to disappear. In addition, males, high-school graduates, or those who choose science major are more likely to be affected by economic recession and have a larger cumulative discounted salary loss.
    參考文獻: 一、中文文獻
    朱勗慈 （2007）臺灣地區大學畢業生生涯選擇相關因素之探討，世新大學管理學院經濟系碩士論文。
    何衣璿 （2015）景氣循環對失業和工資的影響，國立中央大學產業經濟研究所碩士論文。
    李健鴻（2014）初次尋職青年的長期失業原因、問題與對策，《社區發展季刊146期》
    洪漫格 （2017）第一份工作重要嗎?性別與世代差異初探，臺北大學社會所碩士論文。
    徐美 （2006）臺灣高等教育擴張政策實施對過度教育工作者薪資影響之評估
    康逸筠 （2013）理工科系大學生性別、家庭社經地位隊成就抱負與預期薪資之路徑分析，國立政治大學教育學院教育學系碩士論文。
    許菁君 （2016）青年就業與工資差距之實證研究，《全球商業經營管理學報第八期》。
    鄒博全 （2017）臺灣失業青年之疤痕成因與效應，國立政治大學勞工研究所碩士學文論文。
    關秉寅、彭思錦、崔成秀（2019） 臺灣高教擴張對年輕世代薪資及職業聲望的影響:反事實的分析。《人文及社會科學集刊》第三十一卷第四期

    二、英文文獻
    Blanchflower, D. G., & Oswald, A. J. （1995）. An introduction to the wage curve. Journal of economic perspectives, 9（3）, 153-167.
    Brunner, B., & Kuhn, A. （2014）. The impact of labor market entry conditions on initial job assignment and wages. Journal of Population Economics, 27（3）, 705-738.
    Cortes, G. M., & Forsythe, E. （2022）. The heterogeneous labor market impacts of the covid-19 pandemic. Industrial and Labor Relations Review.
    Elsby, M. W., Hobijn, B., & Sahin, A. （2010）. The labor market in the Great Recession （No. w15979）. National Bureau of Economic Research.
    Forsythe, E. C. （2022）. Youth Hiring and Labor Market Tightness. In AEA Papers and Proceedings （Vol. 112, pp. 117-20）. American Economic Association.
    Genda, Y., Kondo, A., & Ohta, S. （2010）. Long-term effects of a recession at labor market entry in Japan and the United States. Journal of Human resources, 45（1）, 157-196.
    Gregg, P., & Tominey, E. （2005）. The wage scar from male youth unemployment. Labour Economics, 12（4）, 487-509.
    Hershbein, B. J. （2012）. Graduating high school in a recession: Work, education, and home production. The BE journal of economic analysis & policy, 12（1）.
    Kahn, L. B. （2010）. The long-term labor market consequences of graduating from college in a bad economy. Labour economics, 17（2）, 303-316.
    Kondo, A. （2015）. Differential effects of graduating during a recession across gender and race. IZA Journal of Labor Economics, 4（1）, 1-24.
    Kwon, I., Milgrom, E. M., & Hwang, S. （2010）. Cohort effects in promotions and wages evidence from Sweden and the United States. Journal of Human Resources, 45（3）, 772-808.
    Liu, K., Salvanes, K. G., & Sørensen, E. Ø. （2016）. Good skills in bad times: Cyclical skill mismatch and the long-term effects of graduating in a recession. European Economic Review, 84, 3-17.
    Oreopoulos, P., Von Wachter, T., & Heisz, A. （2012）. The short-and long-term career effects of graduating in a recession. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 4（1）, 1-29.
    Oyer, P. （2006）. Initial labor market conditions and long-term outcomes for economists. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 20（3）, 143-160.
    Oyer, P. （2008）. The making of an investment banker: Stock market shocks, career choice, and lifetime income. The Journal of Finance, 63（6）, 2601-2628.
    Schwandt, H., & Von Wachter, T. （2019）. Unlucky cohorts: Estimating the long-term effects of entering the labor market in a recession in large cross-sectional data sets. Journal of Labor Economics, 37（S1）, S161-S198.
    Shin, D. （1994）. Cyclicality of real wages among young men. Economics Letters, 46（2）, 137-142.
    Speer, J. D. （2016）. Wages, hours, and the school-to-work transition: the consequences of leaving school in a recession for less-educated men. The BE Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 16（1）, 97-124.
    Stevens, K. （2008）. Adverse economic conditions at labour market entry: Permanent scars or rapid catch-up. University of Sydney.
    Von Wachter, T. （2020）. The persistent effects of initial labor market conditions for young adults and their sources. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 34（4）, 168-94.
    Wozniak, A. （2010）. Are college graduates more responsive to distant labor market opportunities?. Journal of Human Resources, 45（4）, 944-970.
    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    經濟學系
    109258038
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109258038
    数据类型: thesis
    DOI: 10.6814/NCCU202201355
    显示于类别:[經濟學系] 學位論文

    文件中的档案:

    档案 描述 大小格式浏览次数
    803801.pdf1891KbAdobe PDF20检视/开启


    在政大典藏中所有的数据项都受到原著作权保护.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏，無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用，惟仍請適度，合理使用本網站之內容，以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用，則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作，已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益，如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者，請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw)，維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - 回馈