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| Title: | 何時「一帶一路」的參與國會落入債務陷阱? 六個開發中國家的個案研究
When Do BRI Participants Fall into Debt Traps? Case Studies of Six Developing Countries |
| Authors: | 何燁
Chojecki, Patryk |
| Contributors: | 薛健吾
Hsueh, Chien-Wu (Alex)
何燁
Chojecki, Patryk |
| Keywords: | 一帶一路
中國
開發中國家
債務陷阱
Belt and Road Initiative
Debt-Trap Diplomacy
China
Developing Countries |
| Date: | 2022 |
| Issue Date: | 2022-08-01 18:54:32 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 為何某些「一帶一路」參與者最終會陷入債務陷阱，然而其他卻不會呢？多年來，關於中國債務陷阱的話題出現了許多討論。目前為止，究竟何種先決條件會決定一帶一路特定參與國的情況，學界並不存在共識。本文透過提出以下研究問題為「一帶一路」的討論做出貢獻——在政治與經濟條件相似，且一帶一路投資佔其GDP比重接近的情況下，為何有些國家會陷入債務陷阱，而有些國家卻不會?作者選取了六個發展中國家，將其分為兩組來回答該問題。第一組由三個國家組成，中國債務占這些國家 GDP 的比例很高，包含了寮國、吉布地以及安哥拉。第二組則是債務問題較小的國家，包含柬埔寨、斯里蘭卡和茅利塔尼亞。根據本研究的經濟與政治指標，政治自由度和政府效率明顯較低的一帶一路參與國更容易陷入中國債務陷阱。此外，作者確定了兩個具體案例的先決條件，寮國和吉布地最終陷入債務陷阱，主要因為大型基礎設施項目最終證明是無利可圖的，並加劇了隱藏債務的數量，而於安哥拉的例子中，其落入債務陷阱的主要決定因素是石油換基礎設施貸款計劃。本研究最後為政策制定者提供了一些研究意義，並為未來的研究者提供研究建議。
Why do certain BRI participants end up in debt traps while others do not? Throughout the years, many discussions emerged on the topic of Chinese debt traps. So far, there is no consensus among the scholarly community on what precondition may determine the situation of particular BRI members. This thesis contributes to the BRI discourse by proposing the following research question – Among the picked BRI-participating countries with similar political and economic conditions and close degrees of BRI investments over their GDP, why do some countries fall into debt traps, while others do not? The author selected six developing countries and divided them into two groups to answer this question. The first consisted of three nations that reached high debt exposure to China as a percentage of their GDP. Those countries are Laos, Djibouti, and Angola. In the second group, the author placed countries with minor debt distress issues: Cambodia, Sri Lanka, and Mauritania. The analysis of economic and political measurements shows a critical precondition that BRI members with significantly lower levels of political freedom and government efficiency are more likely to fall into Chinese debt traps. Furthermore, the author determined two case-specific prerequisites. In the examples of Laos and Djibouti, the nations ended up in a debt trap primarily due to large infrastructural projects that turned out to be not profitable and exacerbated the amount of hidden debt. In the instance of Angola, the main determinant was the oil-for-infrastructure loan scheme. The thesis concludes with implications for policymakers and suggestions for future research. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
國際研究英語碩士學位學程(IMPIS)
109862016 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109862016 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| DOI: | 10.6814/NCCU202201021 |
| Appears in Collections: | [國際研究英語碩士學位學程] 學位論文
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