Loading...
|
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/139249
|
Title: | 金融危機下民眾購屋目的之研究 A Study on the Purpose of People`s House Purchase under the Financial Crisis |
Authors: | 鄒瑋玲 Tsou, Wei-Ling |
Contributors: | 孫振義 Sun,Chen-Yi 鄒瑋玲 Tsou, Wei-Ling |
Keywords: | 購屋者 金融危機 生命週期 投資 消費 Purchaser Financial crisis Life cycle Investment Consumption |
Date: | 2022 |
Issue Date: | 2022-03-01 17:42:33 (UTC+8) |
Abstract: | 房地產有兩大特點,分別是消費與投資。為了解全球金融危機下購屋者不同家庭結構、收入、購屋市場類型與縣市之購屋目的傾向,本研究應用二元羅吉特模型來分析2006年第四季(2006 Q4)至2009年第四季(2009 Q4)臺灣不同購屋者投資或消費決策的傾向差異。本研究實證結果顯示,在不同的住宅市場類型與縣市,僅年輕夫妻、年輕家庭與三代同堂族群以自住為導向購屋;全球金融危機發生後,成熟家庭及中年夫妻族群之中古屋購屋者,亦傾向購屋自住。 其次,在全球金融危機後的年輕夫妻、年輕家庭與三代同堂之購屋者,收入較低的族群,傾向購屋自住。又因區域特性,全球金融危機後,臺北市及臺中市之購屋者,則傾向購買新成屋及中古屋自住;最後,全球金融危機前,新北市中古屋購屋者購屋目的傾向投資。 綜上,本研究之政策建議有以下三點:首先,建議政府應重視購屋者自住需求面,尤其在出現類似金融危機期間,投資者購屋投資意願下降之際,祭出調整供給或補貼方式。再者,政策制定應因地制宜,重視區域特性,以達政策制定之效果。最後,加強推動住宅價格資訊透明、健全房地產市場等住宅政策,實現居住正義。 Real estate has two major characteristics, representing a consumption good and an investment good. To understand the propensity of real estate purchasing purposes among real estate purchasers of different family structures, income levels, housing market types, and counties and cities under the impact of the global financial crisis, this study applies the Binary Logit Model to analyze the difference of investment or consumption decision propensity of different real estate purchasers from 2006 Q4 to 2009 Q4. The empirical results of this study show that in different housing market types and counties and cities, only young couples, young families, and three-generation family groups purchase real estate for the purpose of owner occupancy. After the outbreak of the global financial crisis, mature families and middle-aged couples purchasing pre-owned housing also tend toward owner occupancy. Secondly, after the global financial crisis, young couples, young families, and three-generation families with lower incomes tend to buy houses for owner occupancy. Moreover, because of the regional characteristics, after the global financial crisis, real estate purchasers in Taipei City and Taichung City tend to buy newly-built houses and pre-owned houses for their own use. Finally, before the global financial crisis, the purchasers of old houses in New Taipei tend toward the purpose of investment. Based on the aforementioned findings, this study proposes the following three policy recommendations. First, it is suggested that the government should pay attention to the demand for owner occupancy among real estate purchasers, implementing measures to adjust supply or offer subsidies particularly during the outbreak of a similar financial crisis that causes decreased intention among investors to buy houses. Furthermore, policy-making should be based on local conditions and regional characteristics, so as to achieve the effect of policy formulation. Finally, efforts should be made to strengthen housing policies such as promoting the transparency of housing price information and improving the real estate market, so as to realize housing justice. |
Reference: | 一、中文文獻 (一) 專書 王濟川、郭志剛,2004,『Logistic 迴歸模型-方法與應用』,臺北市:五南圖書公司。 林建煌,2015,『消費者行為』,臺北市:華泰文化出版。 國立政治大學商學院信義不動產研究發展中心,2010,『台灣地區房地產年鑑』,臺北市:行義文化出版有限公司。 張金鶚,2010,『張金鶚的房產七堂課』,臺北市:方智出版社。 彭懷真,2015,『家庭與家人關係』,臺北市:洪葉文化。 黃迺毓,2016,『家庭教育導論』,臺北市:五南圖書出版公司。 榮泰生,1999,『消費者行為』,臺北市:五南圖書。 (二) 期刊論文 朱芳妮,2017,「邁向住宅需求資訊健全之路—住宅需求動向調查之現況與展望」,『住宅學報』,26(1):101-109。 江淑玲、蔡明憲、張金鶚,2011,「臺北市中古屋價格與法拍屋拍定價格非對稱價格調整行為之研究」,『管理與系統』;18(2):317 - 340。 吳濟華、葉晉嘉、周佳儀,2005,「高雄都會區女性住宅消費行為意向之研究」,『住宅學報』;14(1):67-84。 林左裕,2008,「美國次級房貸風暴對台灣金融資產證券化及投資者之啟示」,『住宅學報』,17(1):111-123。 林左裕、程于芳,2014,「影響不動產市場之從眾行為與總體經濟因素之研究」,『應用經濟論叢』,95:61-99。 林佩萱,2015,「家戶購屋與生育行為關係:資源排擠與動機刺激」,『住宅學報』; 24(1):89-115。 林秋瑾、王健安、張金鶚,1996,「房地產景氣與總體經濟景氣於時間上領先、同時、落後關係之探討」,『國科會人文及社會科學彙刊』,7(1):35-56。 林恩從、林秋瑾、張金鶚,1997,「台灣房地產景氣與金融變數長期關係之研究」,『中國財務學刊』,4(4):75-91。 林祖嘉、陳建良,2005,「租買選擇、貸款選擇、與世代組成:巢式 LOGIT 模型之應用」,『住宅學報』,14(1):1-20。 花敬群、張金鶚,1993,「房地產投機行為之研究」,『經社法制論叢』,11:327-359。 邱于修、周美伶、張金鶚,2013,「購屋者投資機率預測模型之探討」,『臺大管理論叢』,23(2):1-28。 張金鶚、王健安、陳憶茹,2008,「法拍屋折價之謎:市場競爭程度是否更能解釋折價?」,『交大管理學報』,28(2):1-39。 張梅音、鍾陳佳,2002,「住宅法拍屋屋屬性與拍定價格關係之研究--以臺中市12 樓以下集合住宅為例」,『土地問題研究季刊』,1(2):12-20。 郭秋榮,2009,「全球金融風暴之成因、對我國影響及因應對策之探討」,『經濟研究(臺北)』,9:59-89。 陳佳甫、張金鶚、謝博明,2012,「知人知面不知心:購屋者房價預期之分析」,『都市與計劃』,39(4)349-373。 陳建良,2005,「親子居住安排在家庭內與跨家戶成員間的權力互動」,『住宅學報』,14(2):51-81。 陳建良、張郁鶴,2000,「住宅租擁、世代組成與家計儲蓄間關係之探討—以臺灣家計收支調查為對象的分析」,『住宅學報』,9(2):99-124。 陳彥仲,1997,「住宅選擇之程序性決策模式」,『住宅學報』,5:37-49。 陳彥仲、呂昭宏,2013,「建立購屋負擔風險指數再檢視家戶住宅之購屋能力-臺北與高雄地區購屋家戶之比較」,『住宅學報』,22(1):107-129。 陳美菊,2009,「全球金融危機之成因、影響及因應」,『經濟研究(臺北)』,9:261-296。 陳淑美、張金鶚,1998,「戶長與配偶對住宅區位選擇的影響」,『住宅學報』,7:59-82。 陳淑美、張金鶚,2002,「家庭遷移決策與路徑選擇之研究—臺北縣市的實證研究」,『住宅學報』,11(1),1-22。 彭建文,2012,「擁屋相對成本對住宅租擁選擇之影響」,『都市與計劃』,39(1):1-23。 彭建文、王佳于,2005,「不同縣市住宅自有率差異原因分析」,『臺灣土地研究』,8(2):1-20。 彭建文、張金鶚,2000,「總體經濟對房地產景氣影響之研究」,『國家科學委員會研究彙刊:人文及社會科學』,10(3):330-343。 彭建文、蔡怡純,2010,「不同縣市住宅自有率差異分析-縱橫資料分析法之應用」,『都市與計劃』,37(4):433-454。 曾喜鵬、薛立敏,2008,「家戶住宅消費調整選擇行為之研究―臺灣地區擁屋家戶的實證分析」,『臺灣土地研究』,11,105-125。 黃瓊塋、林秋瑾,2004,「購屋者住宅投資風險衡量之研究-風險值之應用」,『臺灣土地研究』,7(1):71-94。 楊宗憲、張金鶚,2001,「臺北都會區第二屋購屋行為之研究—從第一屋與第屋特徵差異分析」,『住宅學報』,10(2):77-90。 鄒瑋玲,2019,「購屋者家庭結構與收入對購屋投資與消費之影響」,『物業管理學報』,10(2),27-34。 薛立敏、林佶賢、顏志龍,2009,「臺灣地區男性出生世代對住宅租擁選擇與住宅消費之影響—兼論住宅消費的世代公平性」,『住宅學報』,18(2):69-92。 謝文盛、林素菁,2000,「租稅效果對住宅租擁選擇影響之分析」,『住宅學報』,9(1):1-17。 (三) 研討會 曹葦如、張金鶚、林秋瑾,1999,「以質化方法分析臺北地區購屋之行為」,中華民國住宅學會第八屆年會論文集,276-298。 (四) 網路資料 內政部,2021,『內政部不動產資訊平台』,https://pip.moi.gov.tw/V3/Default.aspx。 行政院主計總處,2021,『主計總處統計專區 』, https://www.stat.gov.tw/np.asp?ctNode=492&mp=4。 二、英文文獻 (一) 專書 Allison, W., 1999, Logistic Regression Using the SAS System: Theory and Application [M], Cary NC: SAS Institute Inc. DiPasquale, D. & Wheaton, W. C., 1996, Urban Economics and Real Estate Markets, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, Inc. Engel, J. F., Blackwell, R. D. & Miniard, P. W., 1993, Consumer Behavior (6nd ed.), Chicago: Dryden Press. Engel, J. F., Blackwell, R. D. & Miniard, P. W., 1995, Consumer Behavior (8nd ed.), Fort Worth: Dryden Press. Engel, J. F., Kollat, David. & Blackwell, R. D.,1973, Consumer Behavior (2nd ed.), Hinsdale: Dryden Press. Greene, H. William, 2003, Econometric Analysis (5th ed.), New Jersey: Prentice Hall. Hsieh, J.C., 1985, The Chinese Family and Its Ritual Behavior, Taipei: Institute of Ethnology, Academia Sinica. Liao, T. F. F., & Liao, T. F., 1994, Interpreting probability models: Logit, probit, and other generalized linear models, Sage. Long, 1988, Migration & Residential Mobility in United States, New York, Sage. Michelson, W. M., 1977, Environmental Choice, Human Behavior and Residential Satisfaction, Oxford: Oxford University Press. Paul, D. A., 1999, Logistic Regression Using the SAS System: Theory and Application, Cary NC, SAS Institute Inc. Wells, W. D. & Prensky, David., 1997, Consumer Behavior, Taipei: TaiwanWest-book Co. Wilkie, W. L., 1994, Consumer Behavior.3rd ed., N.J., John Wiley and Sons, Inc. (二) 期刊論文 Assadian, A. & Ondrich, J., 1993, “Residential Location, housing Demand and Labor Supply Decisions of One- and Two-Earner Household: The Case of Bogota, Colombia”, Urban Studies, 30(1):73-86. Benjamin, J., Chinloy, P. & Jud, D., 2004, “Why Do Households Concentrate Their Wealth in Housing”, Journal of Real Estate Research, 26:329-343. Berkson, J.,1944, “Application of the Logistic Function to Bio-assay”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 39:357-365. Bitter, C. & Plane, A. D., 2012, “Housing Markets, the Life Course, and Migration Up and Down the Urban Hierarchy”, The SAGE Handbook of Housing Studies: 295-312. Bouchouicha, R., Ftiti Z., 2012, “Real estate markets and the macroeconomy: A dynamic coherence framework”, Economic Modelling, 29(5):1820-1829. Brown, R. M., Schwann G. & C. Scott, 2008, “Personal Residential Real Estate Investment in Australia: Investor Characteristics and Investment Parameters,” Real Estate Economics, 36(1):139-173. Clark, W. A. V., 2012, “Residential mobility and the housing market”, The SAGE Handbook of Housing Studies, : 66-83. Clark, W. A. V., Deurloo, M. C. & Dieleman, F. M., 1994, “Tenure changes in the context of micro-level family and macro-level economic shifts”, Urban Studies, 31(1): 137-154. Clark, W. A. V., M. C. Deurloo & F. M. Dieleman, 2003, “Housing Careers in the United States, 1968-1993: Modeling the Sequencing of Housing States”, Urban Studies, 40(1): 143-160. Clark, W. A., Deurloo, M. C. & Dieleman, F. M., 1997, “Entry to home-ownership in Germany: some comparisons with the United States”, Urban Studies, 34(1):7-19. Davidoff, T., 2006, “Labor Income, Housing Prices and Homeownership”, Journal of Urban Economics,59(2):209-235. Eilbott, P. & Binkowski, E. S.,1985, “The determinants of SMSA homeownership rates”, Journal of Urban Economics, 17(3): 293-304. Feijten, P. & Mulder, C. H., 2002 “The Timing of Household Events and Housing Event in the Netherlands: A Longitudinal Perspective”, Housing Studies, 17(5): 773-792. Feijten, P., Mulder, C. H. & Baizan, P., 2003, “Age Differentiation in the Effect of Household Situation on First-Time Homeownership”, Journal of Housing and the Built Environment, 18(3): 233-255. Fortura, P. & Kushner, J., 1986, “Canadian Inter-City House Price Differentials”, AREUEA Journal, 14:525-536. Frenzen K. & Davis, H. L., 1980, “Purchasing Behavior in Embedded Markets”, Journal of Consumer Research,10(1):1-2. Gluszak, M., 2015, “Multinomial Logit Model of Housing Demand in Poland”. Real Estate Management and Valuation , 23, 84–89. Goldscheider, F. K., and Davanzo, J., 1989, Pathways to independent living in earlyadulthood: Marriage, semiautonomy, and premarital residential independence, Demography, 26:597-614. Goodman, A. C. & M. Kawai,1984, “Replicative Evidence on the Demand for Owner-occupied and Rental Housing”, Southern Economic Journal, 50(4): 1036-1057. Green, R., 1997, “Follow the Leader: How Changes in Residential and Nonresidential Investment Predict Changes in GDP”, Real Estate Economics, 25(2):253-270. Ioannides, Y. M., & S. S. Rosenthal, 1994, “Estimating the Consumption and Investment Demands for Housing and Their Effect on Housing Tenure Status”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 76(1): 127-141. Jud, D. & Winkler D., 2002, “The Dynamics of Metropolitan Housing Prices,” Journal of Real Estate Research, 23:29-45. Kain, John F. & John M. Quigley., 1972, “Housing Market Discrimination, Home-ownership and Savings Behavior”, The American Economic Review, 62(3):263-277. Kristensen, G., 1997, “Women’s Economic Progress and the Demand for ousing: Theory and Empirical Analysis Based on Danish Data”, Urban Studies, 34(3):403-418. Li, M., 1977, “A Logit Model of Homeownership”, Econometrica, 45(5): 1081-1097. Luis D. S., 2005, “Labor income uncertainty, skewness and homeownership: A panel data study for Germany and Spain”, Journal of Urban Economics,58(1):156-176. McQuinn, K. & O`Reilly, G., 2008, “Assessing the Role of Income and Interest Rates in Determining House Prices”, Economic Modelling, 25:377-390. Morris, D. & Heathcote J., 2005, “Housing and the business cycle”, International Economic Review, 46(3):751-784. Morrow-Jones, H. A., 1988, “The housing life-cycle and the transition from renting to owning a home in the United States: a multistate analysis”, Environment and Planning A, 20(9):1165-1184. Mulder, C.H. & Hooimeijer, P., 1995, “Moving into Owner-Occupation: Compositional and contextual effects on the propensity to become a homeowner. Netherlands Journatl of Housing and the Built Environment, 10:5-25, Ong, S. E., 1995, “Singapore Real Estate and Property Stocks - A Cointegration Test”, Journal of Property Research, 12:29-39. Ortalo-Magne, F. & Rady, S., 2006, “Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints”, The Review of Economic Studies, 73:459-485, Quan, C. D. & Titman, S., 1999, “Do Real Estate Prices and Stock Prices Move Together? An International Analysis”, Real Estate Economics, 27:183-207. Quan, D. C. & Titman, S., 1997, “Commercial Real Estate Prices and Stock Market Returns: An International Analysis”, Financial Analysts Journal, 53(3):21-34. Shear, W.B., Wachter, S.M. & Weicher. J.C., 1988, “Housing as an Asset in the 1980s and 1990s”, Housing Finance Review,7:169-200. Voith, R. D. & Crone T., 1988, “National Vacancy Rates and the Persistence of Shocks in U. S. Office Markets”, Journal of American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, 16(4):437-458. Wells, W. & Gubar. G., 1966, “Life cycle concept in marketing research”, Marketing Research, 3:355-363. Wen, Y., 2001, “Residential Investment and Economic Growth”, Annals of Economics and Finance, 2(2):437-444. Żelazowski, K., 2017, “Housing Market Cucles in the Context of Business Cycles”, Real Estate Management and Valuation, 25(3):5-14. |
Description: | 博士 國立政治大學 地政學系 101257503 |
Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0101257503 |
Data Type: | thesis |
DOI: | 10.6814/NCCU202200285 |
Appears in Collections: | [地政學系] 學位論文
|
Files in This Item:
File |
Description |
Size | Format | |
750301.pdf | | 17115Kb | Adobe PDF2 | 0 | View/Open |
|
All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.
|