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| Title: | 美中於東南亞的競逐戰略：權力轉移重現或反轉
Strategizing US-China Competition in Southeast Asia: Power Transition Revisited or Reversed? |
| Authors: | 張喁
Chang, Yu |
| Contributors: | 楊昊
Yang, Hao
張喁
Chang, Yu |
| Keywords: | 權力轉移
重返亞洲
印太戰略
一帶一路
Power transition
Pivot to Asia
Indo-Pacific Strategy
BRI |
| Date: | 2021 |
| Issue Date: | 2021-11-01 12:16:44 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 冷戰結束以來，世界形成單一超強的穩定階層體系。然而美國的相對衰退以及中國崛起成為其主要挑戰者，帶來另一個冷戰的隱憂。隨著川普上任後對中貿易戰如火如荼的開展，全球不再平靜，二戰後未見的衝突規模隱然若現。就權力平衡的觀點，強權間的均勢帶來國際體系的穩定，然而權力轉移論卻認為此刻若一國對另一國或現狀不滿意，發動戰爭的可能性便會遽增。於此美中對立節節升高之際，本文分析二國於東南亞的戰略、實際作為、與各國的反應，研究權力轉移是否已然重現，或是原有霸權得以反轉該趨勢。
For the past three decades, the world is dominated by a stable hierarchy with only one superpower, i.e., the US. However, the relative decline of the US and the rise of China as America’s leading competitor, however, appear to shadow globe with the concern of another cold war. The trade war given rise to by the Trump government against China is now going on like a raging fire. As the Khmer proverb goes, “When elephants fight, the ants perish.” The whole world is unrestful with the two major powers “communicating” violently. At the beginning of year 2018, The Economist published a cover story titled, “The Next War: The Growing Danger of Great Power Conflict”, which detailed how shifts in technology and geopolitics are bringing the threat of great-power conflict back. In this view, “conflict on a scale and intensity not seen since the Second World War is once again plausible.”
Of the scope of Balance of Power, the international system leans to peace when the power of major players converges to equivalence. While borrowing the lens of Power Transition Theory to look into the competition between the two great powers, China and the US, when one state’s power approaches that of another state and dissatisfaction level is high, the risk of initiating a war soars. As the confrontation between is escalating, the paper is to look into primary official documents as well as secondary data supplemented with the study of the practice of both sides in Southeast Asia and analyze whether power transition has revisited this era or the current dominant power can reverse the shift of power. |
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張雅君，「中國東協自由貿易區對中越關係的影響」，遠景基金會季刊第十八卷，第二期，2017，頁 45-96。 |
| Description: | 博士
國立政治大學
亞太研究英語博士學位學程(IDAS)
992655051 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0992655051 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| DOI: | 10.6814/NCCU202101670 |
| Appears in Collections: | [亞太研究英語博/碩士學位學程(IDAS/IMAS)] 學位論文
|
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| 505101.pdf | | 5441Kb | Adobe PDF2 | 0 | View/Open |
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