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    题名: 新冠肺炎期間數位新聞媒體情緒與休閒不動產市場之關聯性研究
    The Association between Digital News Media Sentiment and Leisure Real Estate Market during the Period of COVID-19
    作者: 王俐琪
    Wang, Li-Chi
    贡献者: 林左裕
    Lin, Tso-Yu
    王俐琪
    Wang, Li-Chi
    关键词: 休閒不動產市場
    新冠肺炎
    ARDL-ECM
    數位新聞媒體情緒
    Leisure Real Estate
    Covid-19
    ARDL-ECM
    News Media Sentiment
    日期: 2021
    上传时间: 2021-09-02 17:30:46 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 2020年逢新冠肺炎衝擊，疫情蔓延全球亦重創各國經濟，不動產領域中，相較住宅及商辦等不動產市場，觀光產業影響尤為嚴峻，本研究建立實證模型分析總體經濟與休閒不動產市場於疫情壟罩下之動態關係，並納入政府所採取之觀光紓困措施進行端量，另鑒於數位網路興起，本研究亦運用數位新聞媒體內容作為基礎，透過其中所隱含之情緒將其量化為數值進而創建市場情緒代理指數作為變數之一，觀察是否能藉此掌握並補足疫情不確定氛圍瀰漫下，基本面因素無法完整解釋之市場走向。

    本研究透過ARDL-ECM長短期檢定進行量化實證分析，研究結果顯示2020年疫情爆發期間，數位新聞媒體情緒與臺灣休閒不動產業營收產生正向關聯，本研究推斷媒體報導內容能間接反映出市場參與者之心理預期及其後續行為決策，可作為即時市場反應之觀察指標之一，彌補多數經濟指標發布滯後性之缺口，供政府及私人企業於政策等決策擬定上之參考。
    The recent novel coronavirus disease (Covid-19) outbreak is seeing a rapid spread worldwide and is affecting global economies. Despite rigorous medical countermeasures, the virus continues to severely hinder the development of different real estate segments, especially for tourism real estates. This study presents an empirical model to analyze the dynamic relationship between macroeconomy and the leisure real estate market during the pandemic. The model also includes the tourism relief package drafted by the government as a dummy variable. As digitalization becomes increasingly prominent, this study additionally considers digital news content as a proxy variable to evoke implicit sentiment, which is further quantified and used for index establishment.
    This study uses the “Auto Regression Distributed Lag” (ARDL) model to conduct quantitative empirical analysis. Results show that during the pandemic in 2020, the sentiment of digital news media has a positive association with the revenue of Taiwan’s leisure real estate industry. Thus, this paper postulates that content from media reports can indirectly reflect the psychological expectations of market participants and influence their subsequent behavioral decisions. In other words, news media sentiment can be one of the observation indicators for immediate market response, bridging the retardation problem of most economic indicators as well as providing governments and private companies references for policy-making.
    參考文獻: 一、 中文參考文獻
    (一) 專書
    李銘輝、郭建興，2010，『觀光遊憩資源規劃』第十一版，台北，楊智文化事業股份有限公司。
    張紹勳，2012，『計量經濟及高等研究法』第一版，台北，五南圖書出版股份有限公司。
    楊奕農，2009，『時間序列分析 經濟與財務上之應用』第二版，台北:雙葉書廊有限公司。
    吳坤熙，2007，『觀光遊憩資源實務』第二版，台北，楊智文化事業股份有限公司。

    (二) 期刊論文
    江明珠、許秉凱，2019，「媒體新聞能否預測住房市場？」，住宅學報，28(2)，37-61。
    郝沛毅、歐仁彬、黃天受、林振穎、吳建生，2018，「透過新聞文章預測股價漲跌趨勢－結合情緒分析、主題模型與模糊支持向量機」，資訊管理學報，25(4)。
    張俊仁、林雪瑜、蘇芷嫺、楊淑珺，2019，「觀光外匯收入波動之總體經濟效果」，經濟論文， 47(2)，163-207。
    連姵如，2007，「開放大陸人士來臺觀光對臺灣經濟變數影響之研究」，臺灣大學國家發展研究所學位論文。
    聶建中與周明智，2003，「影響來臺旅遊人數及觀光外匯收入總體變數決定因素之研究。」，管理學報，19(6)，1153-1172。
    徐之強、葉錦徽，2009，「臺灣消費者信心指數與景氣循環關係之探討」，財團法人國家實驗研究院科技政策研究與資訊中心，98010102。

    (三) 博、碩士論文
    李宜蒼，2014，「影響來臺觀光旅遊關鍵經濟變數之探討」，中原大學國際經營與貿易研究所學位論文。
    林筱真，2016，「新聞媒體情感對於房價之影響」，國立政治大學地政學系碩士論文。
    楊子江，2004，「SARS疫情經濟影響的事後分析」，國立臺灣大學農業經濟所碩士論文。

     
    二、 英文參考文獻
    (一) 專書
    Han, J., Pei, J. and Kamber, M., 2011, “Data mining: concepts and techniques”, Elsevier.
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    (二) 期刊論文
    Aguilar, P., Ghirelli, C., Pacce, M. and Urtasun, A., 2020, “Can news help measure economic sentiment? An application in COVID-19 times”, Documentos de Trabajo, 2027.
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    Bakshi, R. K., Kaur, N., Kaur, R. and Kaur, G., 2016, “Opinion mining and sentiment analysis”, International Conference on Computing for Sustainable Global Development, 452-455.
    Barro, R. J., Ursúa, J. F. and Weng, J., 2020, “The coronavirus and the great influenza pandemic: Lessons from the “spanish flu” for the coronavirus’s potential effects on mortality and economic activity”, National Bureau of Economic Research, 26866.
    Buckman, S.R., Shapiro, A.H., Sudhof, M. and Wilson, D.J., 2020, “News Sentiment in the Time of COVID-19”, FRBSF Economic Letter, 8:1-5.
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    Chen, H., Chen, R., Bernard, S. and Rahman, I., 2019, “US REVENUE industry revenue: an ARDL bounds testing approach”, International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management.
    Chiong, R., Fan, Z., Hu, Z., Adam, M. T., Lutz, B. and Neumann, D., 2018, “A sentiment analysis-based machine learning approach for financial market prediction via news disclosures”, Genetic and Evolutionary Computation Conference Companion, 278-279.
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    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    地政學系
    108257006
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108257006
    数据类型: thesis
    DOI: 10.6814/NCCU202101451
    显示于类别:[地政學系] 學位論文

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