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| Title: | 中國大陸的所得分配與經濟成長
Income Distribution and Economic Growth in China |
| Authors: | 陸珊珊
Luh, Shan-Shan |
| Contributors: | 黃仁德
Hwang, Jen-Te
陸珊珊
Luh, Shan-Shan |
| Keywords: | 所得分配
門檻效果
經濟成長
Income Distribution
Threshold Effect
Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2021 |
| Issue Date: | 2021-09-02 17:13:38 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 自1978年採行改革開放政策以來，中國經濟取得了舉世矚目的成就。然而，中國經濟的快速成長伴隨所得分配的急劇惡化。在過去幾十年中，中國是所有大國中所得不均成長速度最快的國家。中國所得不均以極不尋常的速度在短期內快速增加，加深了社會與政治不穩定的風險，中國所得分配對經濟成長的影響是一相當值得探討的議題。
由於衡量中國所得分配資料的不足，因此，本文首先分別計算1995~2013年各省城鎮、農村及全省的基尼係數。結果顯示，全省的基尼係數高於各省城鎮及農村的基尼係數，經比較不同來源的城鎮基尼係數，本文計算之城鎮基尼係數的均值變動趨勢與其他來源之城鎮與全國的基尼係數一致。
其次，本文分析中國所得分配不均的因素，發現可歸納為經濟、社會、政策、及政治因素。在經濟因素方面，高度依賴國際貿易與國外直接投資、通貨膨脹、城鎮失業率上升、技術進步、金融資源分配不均、信貸市場低度發展、及個人所得稅率與移轉支付的所得重分配效果不彰等，均使得所得分配在經濟成長過程中惡化。
在社會因素方面，由於中國實行有利於城鎮居民的戶籍制度、政府教育支出較多數已開發國家為低，導致所得不均擴大。在政策因素方面，改革初期中國實施不平衡的經濟發展策略、最低工資、及偏低的政府社會保障支出水平，也不利於所得分配的改善。在政治因素方面，專制政治體制乃產生非法收入與腐敗的重要來源，而政府對國有企業的頻仍干預也加劇了所得不均。
最後，本文採用一般化動差法 (GMM) 估計所得分配與經濟成長之間的非直線性關係，實證結果顯示，中國所得分配與經濟成長存在多重門檻，分別為基尼係數0.225、0.315、及0.345。當基尼係數較低 (小於或等於0.225) 時，基尼係數每增加1％將使經濟成長降低0.27％；當基尼係數介於0.225與0.315之間時，基尼係數每增加1％將刺激經濟成長0.14％至0.15％；當基尼係數高於0.315或0.345時，基尼係數每增加1％將分別使經濟成長降低0.05％及0.38％。因此，不同的所得分配水準，對經濟成長將產生不同影響，過高或過低的所得不均對於經濟成長為負面影響，適度的所得不均將有助於刺激經濟成長。此外，經濟改革初期中國採取沿海省份優先的不平衡發展策略，實證結果顯示內陸地區與沿海地區所得不均程度對於經濟成長的影響不同，相較於內陸（較貧窮）地區，沿海（較富裕）地區所得不均過高或過低，對經濟成長的負面影響較不明顯。
在中國經濟發展的過程中，温和的所得分配不均推升了經濟成長，然而過高的所得分配不均却對經濟成長產生負面的影響。就政策的觀點，中國政府應致力於將沿海富裕地區經濟成長果實分享至內陸落後地區，降低所得不均對經濟成長的負面影響，強化投入資源於人力資本的累積，並進一步改革完善相關制度及政策逐步縮小所得差距，以有利於經濟的持續成長。
Since the economic reforms in 1978, China’s economy has made remarkable achievement. However, the rapid economic growth has been accompanied by a sharp increase in income inequality. China as the fastest income-inequality increase of any large country over several decades. Inequality increase so fast in such a short time is quite unusual in the historical viewpoint, which has raised the social and political instability risk, and it is meaningful to study the relationship between income distribution and economic growth in China.
Data insufficiency is the main factor affecting research on income distribution in China, therefore, in this paper we firstly calculate each provincial Gini coefficients for urban, rural and all residents. The results show the each provincial Gini coefficients for all residents have always been higher than the each provincial Gini coefficients for rural residents and urban residents. Comparison of the different sources of Gini coefficients based on provincial data, the mean value of our urban Gini coefficients shows the same trend with other sources of urban and national Gini coefficients.
Second, this paper analyzes the factors affect China’s income inequality. We find that income inequality in China is not only driven by economic factors, but also effects by social factors, policy factors, and political factors. With respect to economic factors, high dependence on international trade and FDI, inflation, the increase of urban unemployment, technological progress, inequality in access to certain financial services, credit market underdevelopment, and the limited role of personal income tax and transfer payments to reduce income inequality all are likely to worsen income inequality in the process of economic growth.
As to social factors, income inequality is likely to worsen by China’s hukou-related urban biases policy, the public expenditures on education do not keep up with the GDP growth. Policy factors including China’s unbalanced regional development strategy at the early reform period, the limited role of the minimum wage regulation, social-security expenditures level remained lower than most of developed countries, those are unfavorable to narrow income inequality. Regarding to political factors, income inequality is likely to worsen by corruption, strong government intervention in SOEs, and authoritarian regime generates the opportunities to acquire illegal income.
In order to find out whether a threshold effect of income distribution on economic growth exists in China, this paper uses the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator to test the nonlinear relationship between income distribution and economic growth in China. The empirical results show that there exists multiple income distribution thresholds at Gini coefficients of 0.225, 0.315, and 0.345. This implies that the effect of income distribution on national economic growth will change with different Gini coefficients. When the Gini coefficient is less than or equal to 0.225, a 1% increase in the Gini coefficient will impede economic growth by 0.27%; when it is between 0.225 and 0.315, a 1% increase in the Gini coefficient will stimulate economic growth by between 0.14% and 0.15%; and when it is higher than 0.315 or 0.345, a 1% increase in the Gini coefficient will reduce economic growth by 0.05% and 0.38%, respectively. These findings indicate that low or high income inequality in China will harm economic growth, and that moderate income inequality will benefit economic growth. In addition, in comparison with inland (poorer) regions, we find that the detrimental impact of inequality on growth is less pronounced at low or high income inequality levels in the coastal (richer) regions.
In China, the increase in inequality from a low level provides enhanced incentives for growth. However, the trend in income inequality has not significantly reversed with rapid economic growth, and a sustained increase in income inequality will hamper further growth. From the policy point of view, China’s government should focus its efforts on sharing the fruits of growth in the coastal regions with the less-developed inland regions, put more emphasis on the accumulation of human capital, and further improve relevant institutions and policies to reduce the high income inequality in favor of sustained economic growth. |
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| Description: | 博士
國立政治大學
國家發展研究所
100261504 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0100261504 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| DOI: | 10.6814/NCCU202101380 |
| Appears in Collections: | [國家發展研究所] 學位論文
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