政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/136586

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题名:	北京市汽車限購政策的外溢效果 The Spillover Effect of the Automobile Purchase Restriction Policy in Beijing
作者:	許珮嘉 Hsu, Pei-Chia
贡献者:	胡偉民黃柏鈞 Hu, Wei-Min Huang, Po-Chun 許珮嘉 Hsu, Pei-Chia
关键词:	汽車限購政策外溢效果雙重差分法 Automobile Purchase Restriction Policy Spillover effect Difference-in-Differences
日期:	2021
上传时间:	2021-08-04 16:04:35 (UTC+8)
摘要:	隨著中國經濟快速發展，城市的汽車保有量快速成長，但也導致交通擁堵、空氣汙染、能源短缺的問題日益嚴重。北京市於2010年12月23日公佈汽車限購政策，希望透過控制汽車總量的方式，減緩汽車增加的速度。但由於在北京購車需先透過搖號方式獲得車牌，其中籤率很低，因此北京居民可能到鄰近城市購買汽車並註冊車牌，而產生政策外溢效果，降低政策的有效性。因此本文使用雙重差分法進行估計，研究北京市在實施汽車限購政策後，政策對於鄰近城市汽車銷售量的影響，以觀察政策的外溢效果。本文之資料來源為中國月度新車登錄資料，樣本資料期間為2009年1月至2012年12月。依照與北京距離遠近區分實驗組與控制組，距離北京較近的縣為實驗組，距離北京較遠的縣為控制組。實證結果顯示，在汽車限購政策實施後，距離北京較近的縣相對於距離北京較遠的縣，汽車銷售量顯著增加，且隨著與北京的距離越近，其效果越大，因此存在著政策的外溢效果。 With the rapid economic growth in China, automobile ownership and use has increased over the past decades. However, it led to exacerbated traffic congestion, worsened air pollution, and energy consumption, these problems have become increasingly serious. Therefore, Beijing government adopted Automobile Purchase Restriction Policy in December 23,2010, hoping through the policy it could constrain the quantity of automobiles, and decrease the growth rate of automobiles. However, Beijing employs lottery policy with low winning rate, it causes that residents may purchase and register their cars in neighboring cities, and the spillover effect may reduce the policy’s effectiveness. Therefore, this article uses Difference-in-Differences method to analyze how the sales of neighboring cities would be affected after the Automobile Purchase Restriction Policy, and this article aims to explore the spillover effect. Data used in this article is from Monthly Increase in Registered Vehicles Across China. During the period from January 2009 to December 2012, we set the neighboring districts as an experimental group and the far districts as a control group. The empirical results show that after the Automobile Purchase Restriction Policy, the sales of automobiles significantly increase by compared neighboring districts and far districts. As the distance gets nearer, the sales of automobiles have a significant positive impact. The results reveal that the Automobile Purchase Restriction Policy has the spillover effect to the neighboring areas.
參考文獻:	中文參考文獻牛文元（2010）。中國新型化城市報告2010。中國科學院研究報告。王庭奕（2017）。北京市汽車限購政策對自主品牌銷售的影響（碩士）。國立政治大學，台北市。北京交通發展研究中心（2011)。北京交通發展年度報告。宣昌勇、艾文衛、張昊（2013）。我國大中城市小客車限購困局的成因與突破——以北京 “搖號” 制度為例。管理世界，(8)，173-174。侯幸、彭時平、馬燁（2013）。北京上牌搖號與上海車牌拍賣政策下消費者成本比較。中國軟科學，（11) ，58-65。張彤、侯幸、吳昱（2017）。效率、民意與車牌分配方式選擇。經濟學(季刊)，(2), 707-728。馮采（2018）。汽車限購政策的成效和溢出效應分析——基於汽車上牌資料的實證研究。當代財經，8。陳華、劉清波（2013，11月05日）。1.4萬北京車主河北上牌，當地形成上牌服務產業鏈。北京日報。資料引自http://finance.people.com.cn/n/2013/1105/c1004-23432433.html。謝旭軒、張世秋、易如、吳丹、黃德生（2011）。北京市交通擁堵的社會成本分析。中國人口資源與環境，21(1)，28-32。英文參考文獻 Chin, A., & Smith, P. (1997). Automobile ownership and government policy: The economics of Singapore`s vehicle quota scheme. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 31(2), 129-140. Chen, X., & Zhao, J. (2013). Bidding to drive: Car license auction policy in Shanghai and its public acceptance.Transport Policy, 27, 39-52. Feng, S., & Li, Q. (2013). Car ownership control in Chinese mega cities: Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou. Journeys (LTA Academy Singapore). Hao, H., Wang, H., & Ouyang, M. (2011). Comparison of policies on vehicle ownership and use between Beijing and Shanghai and their impacts on fuel consumption by passenger vehicles.Energy Policy,39(2), 1016-1021. IBM. (2010). The globalization of traffic congestion: IBM 2010 commuter pain survey, Technical report Kuo,L. (2013). The Genius Ways Beijing Drivers Get Around the City`s License Plate Lottery ,Quartz ,from: https://qz.com/153742/the-genius-ways-beijing-drivers-get-around-the-citys-license-plate-lottery/ Li, S. (2018). Better lucky than rich? Welfare analysis of automobile licence allocations in Beijing and Shanghai.The Review of Economic Studies,85(4), 2389-2428. Yang, J., Liu, Y., Qin, P., & Liu, A. A. (2014). A review of Beijing׳ s vehicle registration lottery: Short-term effects on vehicle growth and fuel consumption.Energy Policy,75, 157-166. Zheng, Y., Moody, J., Wang, S., & Zhao, J. (2021). Measuring policy leakage of Beijing’s car ownership restriction.Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice,148, 223-236.
描述:	碩士國立政治大學財政學系 108255018
資料來源:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108255018
数据类型:	thesis
DOI:	10.6814/NCCU202101117
显示于类别:	[財政學系] 學位論文

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