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    Title: 現場樣本次數及時間偏誤之修正─以淡水河流域濕地價值評估為例
    Addressing on-site sampling bias: A case study on measuring recreational values of Tamsui river wetlands
    Authors: 吳宛霓
    Wu, Wan-Ni
    Contributors: 蕭代基
    Shaw, Dai-Gee
    吳宛霓
    Wu, Wan-Ni
    Keywords: 旅行成本法
    現場抽樣樣本
    偏誤調整
    遊憩價值
    Date: 2021
    Issue Date: 2021-08-04 15:58:11 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 旅行成本法可以估計社會對特定地點的遊憩需求函數,然而受到現場抽樣的限制,現場樣本存在非負整數、截頭以及內生分層三大特性,導致現場母體(on-site population)的機率分布與母體(population)的機率分布不一致。本研究針對此估計偏誤,進行機率密度函數的修正。
    本文首先假設旅行次數與停留時間彼此獨立,比較四種模型修正旅行次數偏誤的結果。研究顯示在獨立假設下,以負二項分配假設旅行次數的機率分布、以卜瓦松分配假設停留時間機率分布較為合適。參考Englin與Shonkwiler(1995)的作法,修正現場母體的機率密度函數偏誤。
    而後放寬旅行次數與停留時間彼此獨立的假設,同時考慮旅行次數與停留時間對現場樣本的影響,假設次數與時間的母體均為卜瓦松分配,採用條件卜瓦松模型(conditional Poisson model,CPM)進行需求函數的估計。並參考Shaw(1988)的作法修正現場母體的機率密度函數偏誤。
    依據實證結果顯示,旅行次數受旅行成本高低、年紀大小、性別與戶外活動頻率影響,而停留時間則受性別以及是否曾參與環保團體影響。若採獨立假設對旅行次數進行調整,適合以負二項分配作為母體假設,則每年遊客對於淡水河流域濕地的遊憩價值約為新台幣2,100元;若採非獨立的估計方法,針對旅行次數與停留時間兩部分同時進行調整,將母體以條件卜瓦松分配進行設定,其遊憩價值約為新台幣6,540元。
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    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    經濟學系
    108258013
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108258013
    Data Type: thesis
    DOI: 10.6814/NCCU202100930
    Appears in Collections:[經濟學系] 學位論文

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