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| Title: | 新冠肺炎（COVID-19）疫情對不動產市場的影響－以美國為例
The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the real estate market- Evidence from USA |
| Authors: | 林宗緯
Lin, Zong-Wei |
| Contributors: | 林左裕
Lin, Tso-Yu
林宗緯
Lin, Zong-Wei |
| Keywords: | 新冠肺炎
不動產投資信託
自我迴歸分配落遲模型
COVID-19
REITs
ARDL Model |
| Date: | 2021 |
| Issue Date: | 2021-08-04 15:51:14 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 新冠肺炎COVID-19病毒正嚴重地重挫全球的經濟。疫情的爆發除了危害到人們生命安全，也正改變人們的生活型態。本研究欲探討新冠肺炎COVID-19疫情對不動產市場的影響。首先，本研究透過文獻回顧，觀察歷史上造成大流行的疫情與現階段的COVID-19，利用時間序列資料，建立自我迴歸分配落遲模型分析不同產業在遭受到疫情的影響之下，對於其經濟以及不動產市場的影響。
本研究樣區為美國，建立三個模型，採用之應變數分別為商辦大樓（BXP）、零售業（O）與流通物流業（PLD）的不動產投資信託（REITs）指數；自變數包含COVID-19確診數、COVID-19死亡數、標普500股價指數、VIX恐慌指數、美元指數、美國非農就業人口、基準利率與M2貨幣供給量。
模型結果顯示確診數對於上述三個產業皆無顯著影響，然而死亡數對於商辦大樓與零售業皆為負向顯著影響，而對流通物流業則為正向顯著影響。美國政府與聯準會實施無限QE政策、降息與紓困案等利多政策，致使股價指數與M2貨幣供應量正向顯著商辦大樓與零售業。相對而言，過多的美金流於市場當中，使得美元指數與REITs指數呈向負向顯著相關。美國非農從業人口僅正向影響商辦大樓，以及利率對於商辦大樓為負向關係然而與零售業有著正向關係，顯示疫情之下各產業面臨不同之議題。政府相關單位研擬財政措施時，應謹慎評估紓困之產業類別與相對應之對象，方能有效地解決當今社會與經濟問題。
COVID-19 is severely hitting the global economy hard. The outbreak of the epidemic not only endangered people`s lives, but greatly changed people`s lifestyles. The study intends to explore the impact of COVID-19 epidemic on the real estate market. First of all, the study uses literature review to observe the historical epidemics that have caused pandemics and the current COVID-19. The study use time series data to establish autoregressive distributed lag model to analyze the impact of different industries under the impact of the epidemic.
The sample area of the study is the United States, and three models are established. Dependent Variables are the real estate investment trust (REITs) index of commercial office building (BXP), retail industry (O) and logistics industry (PLD); independent variables include COVID -19 confirmed cases, COVID-19 deaths, S&P 500 stock index, CBOE Volatility index, U.S. dollar index, U.S. non-agricultural employment population, benchmark interest rate and M2 money supply.
The model results show that the number of confirmed cases has no significant impact on the above three industries. However, the number of deaths has a negative significant impact on commercial buildings and retail industries, and a positive significant impact on the circulation and logistics industry. The U.S. government and the Federal Reserve have implemented bullish policies, relatively speaking, too much U.S. dollars flowed into the market, making the U.S. dollar index and REITs index have a significant negative correlation. The non-agricultural population in the United States only positively affects commercial and office buildings, and interest rates have a negative relationship with commercial and office buildings, but they have a positive relationship with the retail industry. This shows that various industries face different issues under the epidemic. When formulating fiscal measures, relevant government agencies should carefully evaluate the types of industries to be rescued and their counterparts in order to effectively solve today`s social and economic problems. |
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相關網站參考
1. 世界衛生組織: https://www.who.int/
2. 美國勞工統計局: https://www.bls.gov/
3. 聯邦準備系統: https://www.federalreserve.gov/ |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
地政學系
108257023 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108257023 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| DOI: | 10.6814/NCCU202100913 |
| Appears in Collections: | [地政學系] 學位論文
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