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Title:	嚴重特殊傳染性肺炎 (COVID-19) 對半導體製造業影響之探討 The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Semiconductor Manufacturing Industry
Authors:	謝政傑 Hsieh, Cheng-Chieh
Contributors:	郭維裕 Kuo, Wei-Yu 謝政傑 Hsieh, Cheng-Chieh
Keywords:	半導體製造新型冠狀肺炎產業價值鏈供給與需求 Semiconductor manufacturing COVID-19 Industry value chain Supply and demand
Date:	2021
Issue Date:	2021-08-04 14:56:31 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	2020年年初突如其來的新型冠狀肺炎，無情地肆虐了全球每個角落，為了對抗未知且兇猛的病毒，人們改變了原來的生活型態以及習以為常的工作方式。嚴厲的強制性防疫措施大大地限制了人員的移動，也狠狠地扼住了商業活動的咽喉-人流，全球經濟遭受到了上世紀經濟大蕭條以來最嚴重的衰退，全球GDP下降了3.3%，而全世界大部分的國家的經濟也都經歷了有GDP紀錄以來最為嚴重的衰退。然而，擁有全球第四大貿易量的半導體產業卻逆勢上揚，整體市場較2019年成長了6.8%，這也是近25年來半導體產業第一次與全球經濟脫鉤。從需求面而言，新型冠狀肺炎疫情期間所採行的封城及關閉實體店面等防疫措施，迫使人們在家裡透過線上方式從事日常生活活動，如採買、娛樂、學習與工作等，這些數位化的經濟活動大大地刺激了電腦終端、網路通訊與伺服器等半導體相關設備的需求。而從供給面來看的話，由於各個半導體主要國家皆將半導體製造業視為極為重要的關鍵基礎建設工業，因此也都特別准許半導體晶圓廠於疫情期間在最大限度內不受影響地持續運轉。然而追根究柢，半導體晶圓製造企業本身對防疫措施的自我高標準要求與提前佈署，以及半導體晶圓廠的高度自動化與潔淨度的工作環境，使得新型冠狀病毒難以擴散，才是全球半導體晶圓廠仍能不受疫情影響地扮演好半導體產業價值鏈中關鍵的供應者角色的主要原因。2020年，全球三大半導體製造公司年營收成長率分別為: 8.2% (英特爾，美國)、15.2% (三星，南韓)以及31.4% (台積電，台灣)，這些營收成長率都較公司總部所在國家的GDP成長率顯著地高上許多隨著2020年底新型冠狀肺炎疫情的舒緩，全球經貿活動也開始熱絡了起來，然而，卻也不預期地造成某些產業在半導體零組件供應上的短缺，進而阻礙了全球經濟的進一步復甦。有感於半導體供應鏈的韌性對於國家安全與經濟的重要性，各個國家如美國與歐盟等紛紛提出具體的半導體製造產業政策，希望大幅擴建自身半導體晶圓製造產能以減緩未來半導體供應鏈斷鏈所帶來的可能衝擊。由於先進半導體製程 (≤ 7 nm) 擁有非常高的技術壁壘，一般咸信此次晶圓產能擴張應以成熟製程為主，也就是說，擁有先進製程能力的三大半導體製造企業在這波產能擴建後所受到的影響應該較為輕微。 Being the world’s fourth most traded product, semiconductors – the workhorse of the global economy performed oppositely to most of other industries during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in 2020, claiming an increase of 6.8% in global market revenue. The restrictive lockdown/shelter-in-place and mandatory business closure measures taken by the COVID-19-affected countries inevitably stumbled the global economy, leading to a 3.3% decline in global GDP growth. The downturn in 2020 is the most severe global economic contraction since The Great Depression in 1930’s, and exhibits an unprecedent decline-recovery pattern. While striking a deep blow at the industries that heavily rely on physical people flow, the preventive measures unexpectedly surged the demand in semiconductor products as people were forced to perform social, learning and working activities remotely at home through wired or wireless communication in which most of equipment is made of semiconductor. On the other hand, almost all semiconductor countries deemed semiconductor manufacturing an “essential critical infrastructure” industry which has the highest priority in continual operation even during the pandemic crisis. Moreover, the early self-regulatory preventive measures adopted by the semiconductor manufacturing industry and its intrinsically infection-free working environment (i.e., highly automated cleanroom) effectively prevents the semiconductor supply chain from being interrupted by the pandemic. The top 3 semiconductor manufacturing companies all managed to deliver a satisfactory financial result: 8.2% (Intel, US), 15.2% (Samsung, South Korea), and 31.4% (tsmc, Taiwan), and the results all outperformed the revenue growth of the nation where the respective companies are headquartered. The easing of the preventive measures in the end of 2020 revived the global economy. However, the boost in global economic activities revealed a supply shortage crisis in certain semiconductor components which hampered further economic recovery. Acknowledging the resilience of the semiconductor supply chain the top national security and economic concern, United States and European Union pledged to expand onshore semiconductor fabrication capacity to mitigate the potential risk of the semiconductor chip shortage in the future. As advanced-node (≤ 7 nm) fabrication exhibits a prohibitively high technical barrier, it is expected that most of the newly added production capacity is for mature-node. In other words, the top 3 semiconductor manufacturing companies expose less vulnerability to this wave of capacity expansion as all of them are equipped with advanced-node fabrication capability.
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Description:	碩士國立政治大學經營管理碩士學程(EMBA) 103932017
Source URI:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0103932017
Data Type:	thesis
DOI:	10.6814/NCCU202100797
Appears in Collections:	[Executive Master of Business Administration] Theses

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