Loading...
|
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/136379
|
| Title: | 景氣循環對保險購買行為影響之研究
Empirical Analysis of the Influence on Business Cycle in Behavioral Insurance |
| Authors: | 吳俊德
Wu, Jun-De |
| Contributors: | 彭金隆
Peng, Jin-Lung
吳俊德
Wu, Jun-De |
| Keywords: | 景氣因子
投資情緒
保險購買行為
保險金額
Prosperity factors
Investment sentiment
Insurance purchase
Sum assured |
| Date: | 2021 |
| Issue Date: | 2021-08-04 14:55:31 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本文主要研究景氣循環對於保險購買行為的影響，透過文獻的回顧，進一步推斷景氣的變動會影響人們心理情緒，而改變自身的風險偏好與衡量標準，藉由總體經濟變數作為民眾判斷景氣的指標，觀察民眾於景氣波動下的風險感受是否會反應在保險金額的選擇上。
本文以國內某資產前五之壽險公司保戶投保紀錄作為樣本，並以最近一次景氣循環基準日做為資料期間進行實證研究。實證結果發現，當景氣愈差時，要保人的風險意識會提升，進而購買高保額；反之，當景氣上升，則會使要保人風險意識轉弱，降低保額的購買。本文跟進一步將股票市場的反應作為民眾判斷景氣的指標，但實證結果較不顯著，推測可能並非所有購買保險的人都會參與股票市場。最後本文將景氣循環週期區分成了「擴張期」與「收縮期」並觀察在收縮期時購買的保額是否會顯著大於擴張期，發現收縮期的保額購買量確實大於擴張期。
透過本文的研究，可以提供保險公司針對不同的景氣狀況，執行對應的行銷策略以及增進業務的推展，除了能使保險公司在商品的銷售上更有效率，也能創造更多的銷售機會。
The article mainly studies about the impact of the business cycle on insurance purchase behavior. Through literature review, it is further inferred that the business cycle fluctuation will affect people’s psychological emotions and change their own risk appetite and measurement standards, so based on the overall economic variables as an indicator for the public to judge the prosperity. Observe whether the public`s risk perception under business fluctuations will be reflected in the choice of sum assured.
We use one of the top five life insurance companies of a certain domestic asset as a sample, and use the most recent business cycle base date as the data period to conduct an empirical study The empirical results found that when the economy worsens, the insured person’s risk awareness will increase and he will purchase a higher insurance coverage; on the contrary, when the economy rises, it will cause The insurer’s risk awareness weakened and lowered the amount of insured purchases. We further use the response of the stock market as an indicator of the public’s judgment on the prosperity, but the empirical results are less significant. We speculate that not all people who buy insurance will participate in the stock market. Finally, we divide the business cycle into an "expansion period" and a "contraction period" and observe whether the insured amount purchased during the contraction period will be significantly greater than the expansion period, and found that the amount of insured purchase during the contraction period is indeed greater than the expansion period.
Through the research in this article, we can provide insurance companies to implement corresponding marketing strategies and promote business promotion according to different business conditions. In addition to making insurance companies more efficient in product sales, it can also create more sales opportunities. |
| Reference: | 一、中文資料
古乙辰（2020），天氣對保險購買行為之影響分析。國立政治大學風險管理與保險學系碩士論文，台北市。
林向愷、岳峻豪，（2009）。政經結構變遷與景氣波動－台灣的實證研究。《經濟論文》，37(4)，411-456。
周賓凰、池祥萱、周冠男、龔怡霖，（2002）。行為財務學:文獻回顧與展望。證券市場發展季刊，14，1-46。
彭惠琴（2003）。通貨膨脹、就業及貨幣政策與景氣循環之關聯性。中原大學國際貿易學系碩士論文，桃園市。
陳玲慧，（1999）。壽險有效契約之成長與經濟環境之相關分析研究。保險專刊，58，92-107。
陳仕偉、劉曜竹，（2004）。領先指標對台灣景氣趨勢預測能力的評估。台灣經濟論衡，2(11)，1-34。
賴素鈴、倪家珍，（2004）。經濟發展對我國壽險需求影響性之模式建構。文大商管學報，9(2)，1-27。
陳瑞欽 (2016)。匯率與總體經濟面之關係研究－以台灣為例。嶺東科技大學財經法律所碩士論文，台中市。
陳錦村、蕭育仁、廖志峰，（2014）。金融知識與股票市場參與關聯性之研究－台灣地區的驗證。證券市場發展季刊，26(2)，1 - 42。
二、英文資料
Baker, M. and Wurgler, J, (2006). “Investor sentiment and the cross-section of stock return”, Journal of Finance, 61(4), 1645-1680.
Barber, M. and Odean, T, (2001). “Boy will be boys: Gender, overconfidence, and common stock investment”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(1), 261–292.
Barber, M., Odean, T. and Zhu, N, (2009). “Systematic noise.” Journal of Financial Markets, 12(4), 547-569.
Brunnermeier, M. K., Gollier, C. and Parker, J. A., (2007). “Optimal beliefs, asset prices, and the preference for skewed returns”, American Economic Review, 97(2), 159-165.
Burns, A. F. and Mitchell, W. C., (1946). “Measuring business cycles”, New York: National Bureau of Economic Research.
Chang, C. C., Hsieh, P. F. and Wang Y. H., (2015). “Sophistication, sentiment, and misreaction”, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 50, 903–928.
Chung, S. L., Hung, C.H. and Yeh, C.Y., (2012). “When does investor sentiment predict stock returns?”, Journal of Empirical Finance, 19(2), 217-240.
De Long, B. J., Shleifer, A., Summers, L. H. and Waldmann, R., (1990). ”Positive feedback investment strategies and destabilizing rational speculation”, Journal of Finance, 45(2), 379-395.
Fabozzi, F. J. and Francis, J. C., (1977). “Stability tests for alpha and betas over bull and bear market conditions,” Journal of Finance, 32(4), 1093-1099.
Finucane, M. L., Alhakami , A., Slovic, P. and Johnson, S. M., (2000). “The affect
heuristic in judgments of risks and benefits”, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 13(1), 1-17.
Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A., (1979). “Prospect Theory:An analysis of decision under risk”, Econometrica, 47, 263-291.
Kamara, A., Miller, T.W. and Siegel, A.F., (1992). “The effect of futures trading on the stability of Standard and Poor 500 return”, The Journal of Futures Market, 12(6), 645-658.
Katona, G., (1975). “Psychological economics”, New York: Elsevier Scientific Publication.
Olsen, R. A., (1998). “Behavioral finance and its implications for stock-price Volatility”, Financial Analysts Journal, 54(2), 10-18.
Sahm, C. R., (2012). “How much does risk tolerance change?” The Quarterly Journal of Finance, 2(4), 1-38.
Lichtenstein, S., Fischhoff, B. and Phillips, L. D., (1982). “Calibration of probabilities: The state of the Art to 1980”, New York: Cambridge University Press Publication.
Wright, W. F. and Bower, G. H., (1992). “Mood effects on subjective probability assessment, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 52(2),
276-291. |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
風險管理與保險學系
108358021 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108358021 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| DOI: | 10.6814/NCCU202100784 |
| Appears in Collections: | [風險管理與保險學系] 學位論文
|
Files in This Item:
| File |
Description |
Size | Format | |
|---|
| 802101.pdf | | 2954Kb | Adobe PDF2 | 0 | View/Open |
|
All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.
|
