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| Title: | 中央大選對房市之影響
The Impact of the Presidential Elections on the Housing Market |
| Authors: | 鄧燕聲
Teng, Yen-Sheng |
| Contributors: | 陳明吉
Chen, Ming-Chi
鄧燕聲
Teng, Yen-Sheng |
| Keywords: | 總統大選
中央選舉
事件研究法
異常報酬率
不動產市場
Presidential Elections
Event Study Method
Housing Market |
| Date: | 2021 |
| Issue Date: | 2021-08-04 14:44:02 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 重大事件的發生會影響各個金融市場的資產價格。近年來台灣的高房價成為全民最關心的議題之一，民眾對於房市政策健全性的審視也逐漸移轉至探討政府是否提出有效的打房政策。而在民主制度之下，輿情對於政府的施政方向有著根本性的影響。本研究主要驗證台灣的大選是否會給房市帶來政治景氣循環；或者大選的所帶來的不確定性是否會使投資人延遲買房這類重大支出的決定，因而使大選期間的房市遵守不確定資訊假說。本研究比較選舉前後各一年的台北市、新北市之房價成長率、交易量、流通天數及議價空間。實證結果發現，在政黨輪替的選舉期間，房市景氣在選前明顯比選後熱絡，符合文獻中政治景氣循環之情形。
另一方面，本研究從每次選舉的角度出發，以2012年8月到2020年12月全台16個地區的房價指數、2006年1月到2020年12月全台19個縣市的房屋交易量以及2003年1月到2020年12月全台五個縣市的流通天數、議價空間資料。採用事件研究法，以大選前後三個月份作為事件期，觀察房市各項指標的異常報酬率（變化率）情形，研究各次大選符合的理論假說。實證結果發現在2011年以前，大選對於台灣房地產市場而言代表一個重大事件的發生，期間房市會因大選帶來的不確定性而遵守不確定資訊假說；在2011年後，民眾開始逐漸意識到房價高漲的議題，大選前後的房市景氣會隨著政府推出相關房市政策的時間點波動。
When major events take place, they will affect asset prices of various financial markets sharply. In recent years, extravagant housing prices has become one of the most concerned issues in Taiwan. The public started to focus on whether the government proposes effective housing policies to cap rising housing prices. Under a democratic political system, public opinion will influence the direction of governance. I verify whether Taiwan’s presidential elections will bring the political cycle to the housing market; or the uncertainty brought by these presidential elections will cause investors to postpone the decision of major expenditures and make the housing market to comply with uncertain information hypothesis during election period. I compare house price movement, transaction volume, time on market (days), and bargaining space one year before and after presidential elections in Taipei City and New Taipei City. The results indicate that before party rotations, the housing market became more booming than after the election, corresponded to the political cycle.
Moreover, I use the housing price index of sixteen regions in Taiwan from August 2012 to December 2020, transaction volume of nineteen counties / cities in Taiwan from January 2006 to December 2020, time on market (days) and bargaining space of five cities in Taiwan from January 2003 to December 2020 to demonstrate results from the perspective of each election. The results show that before 2011, the presidential election was a major event for Taiwan’s real estate market, that is, the housing market would comply with the uncertain information hypothesis; after 2011, as the public began to aware the issue of rising housing prices, the ruling party would launch corresponding measures to against real estate speculation and made the real estate market fluctuated with those policies related to the housing market. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
財務管理學系
108357007 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108357007 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| DOI: | 10.6814/NCCU202100852 |
| Appears in Collections: | [財務管理學系] 學位論文
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