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政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 國際經營與貿易學系 > 期刊論文 > Item 140.119/135125

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题名:	Investigating the Inefficiency of the CBO`s Budgetary Projections
作者:	荒井夏來 Natsuki Arai
贡献者:	國貿系
关键词:	Congressional budget office;Forecast evaluation;Conditional forecasts;Economic projections;Survey of professional forecasters
日期:	2020-10
上传时间:	2021-05-25 14:09:42 (UTC+8)
摘要:	This paper evaluates the efficiency of budgetary projections issued by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) from 1984 to 2016 and investigates the cause of their inefficiency. The efficiency of both its budgetary and macroeconomic projections is rejected in many cases, especially for revenue projections. A comparison of forecast evaluations suggests that the inefficiency of revenue projections is likely due to the inefficiency of the underlying macroeconomic projections. By adjusting budgetary projections by the CBO in real time using macroeconomic forecasts by the Survey of Professional Forecasters, the accuracy of the former projections can be significantly improved in some cases, by up to 26% in terms of the root-mean-square prediction error.
關聯:	International Journal of Forecasting, Vol.36, No.4, pp.1290-1300
数据类型:	article
DOI 連結:	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.12.008
DOI:	10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.12.008
显示于类别:	[國際經營與貿易學系 ] 期刊論文

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