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    题名: 中國汽車限購政策對新能源汽車市場份額的影響—以差中差法進行研究
    The impact of the Automobile Purchase Restriction Policy on market share of new energy vehicles in China – Estimation under the difference-in-differences method
    作者: 李浩宇
    Lee, Hao-Yu
    贡献者: 胡偉民
    Hu, Wei-Min
    李浩宇
    Lee, Hao-Yu
    关键词: 汽車限購政策
    新能源汽車
    Automobile Purchase Restriction Policy
    New Energy Vehicles
    日期: 2021
    上传时间: 2021-04-01 11:27:55 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 隨著中國經濟的快速成長，消費者對購買汽車的需求也跟著增加，衍生出嚴重的交通擁堵和空氣污染問題。為解決這些問題，上海於1994年率先實施了《汽車限購政策》，期望能控制每個月新登錄的汽車數量。此後，許多中國一線城市也陸陸續續於2010年至2014年期間出台了汽車限購法規。然而，雖然政策實施最初的目的是在控制汽車數量，但再後來卻也被認為是促進新能源汽車發展的關鍵推力之一。
    本研究搜集了2011年1月至2015年12月間的中國月登陸新增車輛數據。並且採用“差中差”法進行研究，選擇北京，貴陽，廣州，天津，杭州，以深圳六個汽車限購城市作為為實驗組，而其他所有非限制城市為對照組，旨在驗證汽車限購政策確實能為新能源汽車的市場帶來幫助。實驗結果顯示，在政策實施後，實驗組的新能源汽車銷售份額成長顯著的高於對照組的汽車銷售份額成長，證實汽車限購政策確實對推動新能源汽車的市場有正面的影響，特別是在插電式混合動力汽車的效果更為明顯。另外，透過觀察政策實施後一段時間的政策效果還可以發現，該政策的長期效果會比其短期效果來的更理想。
    In China, the rapid economic growth brought a huge traffic demand, resulting in traffic congestion and air pollution problems. For dealing with these problems, Shanghai first implemented the “Automobile Purchase Restriction Policy” to control the number of newly registered cars in 1994. Afterward, many cities also introduced the regulations one after another during the period between 2010 and 2014. However, apart from its initial purpose of controlling the number of cars, the policy was later considered also to be one of the critical forces in promoting the development of new energy vehicles.
    This paper collects the monthly new registered vehicles data in China dated from January 2011 to December 2015, then selects six restricted cities, Beijing, Guiyang, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Hangzhou, and Shenzhen as the treatment group and all the other non-restricted cities as the control group. By adopting the “Difference-in-Differences” method, this paper aims to verify whether the policy really impacts the NEVs market. The results turn out that after the implementation of the policy, the growth of the market share of new energy vehicles in the treatment cities is significantly higher than that of in the control cities, which means that the policy does positively affect the market of the NEVs, especially in the plug-in hybrid electric vehicles sector. Furthermore, when observing the overtime effect after the policy is implemented, it can also be found that the long-term effect of the policy is greater than its short-term effect.
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    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES)
    106266006
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106266006
    数据类型: thesis
    DOI: 10.6814/NCCU202100405
    显示于类别:[應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程 (IMES)] 學位論文

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