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| Title: | 匯率與利率關聯性下保險安定基金之風險保費
The Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Interest Rates on the Risk-Based Premiums in Life Insurance Guaranty Schemes |
| Authors: | 郭玥均
Kuo, Yueh-Chun |
| Contributors: | 張士傑
Chang, Shih-Chieh
郭玥均
Kuo, Yueh-Chun |
| Keywords: | 風險保費
障礙選擇權
波動度
相關性
資產配置
Risk premium
Barrier options
Volatility
Correlation
Asset allocation |
| Date: | 2021 |
| Issue Date: | 2021-04-01 11:21:34 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本研究以保險安定基金風險保費衡量保險人之違約風險，考慮匯率、利率波動度與國外資產配置之影響，利用障礙選擇權評價安定基金之風險保費，將匯率與利率相關性加入模型，進一步分析匯率與利率與違約風險之關聯性，詳細釐清：(1) 匯率與利率波動對風險保費影響；(2) 匯率與利率相關程度與風險保費關聯性；(3) 資產配置差異與風險保費之關係。
研究結果發現：(1) 風險保費與匯率、利率波動度呈現正相關；(2) 國內外利率正相關性會增加風險保費；(3) 利率與匯率正相關性會增加風險保費。研究同時發現，當固定國外債券比例(65%)，風險保費與權益證券比例呈現正相關，數據顯示當指數型股票基金的投資比例增加100%時，即指數型股票基金的投資比例由0.1增加至0.2，風險保費會增加40%。當匯率波動度增加100%時，即匯率波動度由0.1增加至0.2，匯率風險將高於利率風險。
This study uses the insurance guaranty risk premium to measure the insurer’s default risk, considers the impact of exchange rate and interest rate volatility, uses barrier options to evaluate the risk premium, and adds the correlation between exchange rates and interest rates into the model to further analyze the relationship between default risk. The main research is: (1) the impact of exchange rate and interest rate volatility on risk premiums; (2) the correlation between exchange rate, interest rate and risk premiums; (3) the relationship between asset allocation differences and risk premiums.
We find that: (1) risk premiums are positively correlated with exchange rate and interest rate volatility; (2) the positive correlation between domestic and foreign interest rates will increase risk premiums; (3) the positive correlation between interest rates and exchange rates will increase risk premiums. The study also found that the risk premium and the proportion of equity securities are positively correlated. For example, if the investment ratio of index stock funds doubles (0.1 to 0.2), the risk premium will increase by 40% when the proportion of foreign bonds is fixed (65%). As the exchange rate volatility increases by 100% (0.1 to 0.2), the exchange rate risk will be higher than the interest rate risk. |
| Reference: | 一、中文文獻
(一) 學術文獻
張士傑，2019年。《匯率風險對我國壽險業經營之短中長期影響》。台北：財團法人台北外匯市場發展基金會。
(二) 網路資料
中央銀行全球資訊網，歷史檔案-利率，上網日期2021年1月10日，檢自：https://www.cbc.gov.tw/tw/cp-523-995-CC8D8-1.html
中央銀行全球資訊網，新臺幣/美元銀行間收盤匯率，上網日期2020年1月8日，檢自：https://www.cbc.gov.tw/tw/lp-645-1.html
台灣證券交易所，發行量加權股價指數歷史資料，上網日期2020年1月8日，檢自：https://www.twse.com.tw/zh/page/trading/indices/MI_5MINS_HIST.html
全國法規資料庫，人身保險及財產保險安定基金計提標準，上網日期2020年1月20日，檢自：https://law.moj.gov.tw/LawClass/LawAll.aspx?pcode=G0390090
全國法規資料庫，保險業資本適足性管理辦法，上網日期2020年1月20日，檢自：https://law.moj.gov.tw/LawClass/LawAll.aspx?pcode=G0390051
保險局，109年10月保險市場重要指標，上網日期2021年1月19日，檢自：https://www.ib. gov.tw/ch/home.jsp?id=48&parentpath=0,4
財團法人保險事業發展中心，保險業安定基金累積提撥統計表，上網日期2020年1月3日，檢自：https://www.tii.org.tw/tii/information/ information1
富邦金控，109年上半年法說會簡報，上網日期2020年12月27日，檢自：https://www.ircloud.com/taiwan/2881/irwebsite_c/conference .php?year=2020
證券櫃檯買賣中心，ETF歷史行情統計表，上網日期2021年2月9日，檢自：https://www.tpex.org.tw/web/etf/historical/etf_statistics.php?l=zh-tw
二、英文文獻
(一) 學術文獻
Berketi, A. K. (1999). Insolvency risk and its impact on the policyholders’ investment choices: a mean–variance approach for participating life insurance business in UK. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 25(3), 349-372.
Berketi, A. K., & Macdonald, A. S. (1999). The effect of the nature of the liabilities on the solvency and maturity payouts of a UK life office fund: a stochastic evaluation. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 24(1-2), 117-138.
Boulier, J. F., Huang, S., & Taillard, G. (2001). Optimal management under stochastic interest rates: the case of a protected defined contribution pension fund. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 28(2), 173-189.
Briys, E., & De Varenne, F. (1994). Life insurance in a contingent claim framework: pricing and regulatory implications. The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, 19(1), 53-72.
Briys, E., & De Varenne, F. (1997). On the risk of insurance liabilities: debunking some common pitfalls. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 673-694.
Chadburn, R. G. (1998). Controlling Solvency and Maximising Policyholders` Returns: A Comparison of Management Strategies for Accumulating With-profits Long-term Insurance Business. City University, Department of Actuarial Science and Statistics.
Chang, S. C. B., & Lee, Y. K. (2020). Currency Uncertainty, Interest Guarantee, and Risk-Based Premiums in Life Insurance Guaranty Schemes. Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, 14(2).
Chen, A., & Suchanecki, M. (2007). Default risk, bankruptcy procedures and the market value of life insurance liabilities. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 40(2), 231-255.
Cummins, J. D. (1988). Risk‐based premiums for insurance guaranty funds. The journal of Finance, 43(4), 823-839.
Duncan, M. P. (1987). Property-Liability Post-Assessment Guaranty Funds. Issues in Insurance, 2, 239-302.
Gatzert, N. (2008). Asset management and surplus distribution strategies in life insurance: An examination with respect to risk pricing and risk measurement. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 42(2), 839-849.
Grosen, A., & Jørgensen, P. L. (2002). Life insurance liabilities at market value: an analysis of insolvency risk, bonus policy, and regulatory intervention rules in a barrier option framework. Journal of risk and insurance, 69(1), 63-91.
Han, L. M., Lai, G. C., & Witt, R. C. (1997). A financial-economic evaluation of insurance guaranty fund system: An agency cost perspective. Journal of Banking & Finance, 21(8), 1107-1129.
Hwang, Y. W., Chang, S. C., & Wu, Y. C. (2015). Capital forbearance, ex ante life insurance guaranty schemes, and interest rate uncertainty. North American Actuarial Journal, 19(2), 94-115.
Jeanblanc, M., Yor, M., & Chesney, M. (2009). Mathematical methods for financial markets. Springer Science & Business Media.
Kleinow, T., & Willder, M. (2007). The effect of management discretion on hedging and fair valuation of participating policies with maturity guarantees. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 40(3), 445-458.
Kling, A., Richter, A., & Ruß, J. (2007). The interaction of guarantees, surplus distribution, and asset allocation in with-profit life insurance policies. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 40(1), 164-178.
Lee, S. C., Lee, J. P., & Yu, M. T. (2005). Bank capital forbearance and valuation of deposit insurance. Canadian Journal of Administrative Sciences/Revue Canadienne des Sciences de l`Administration, 22(3), 220-229.
Oxera. (2007). Insurance Guarantee Schemes in the EU: Comparative Analysis of Existing Schemes, Analysis of Problems and Evaluation of Options.
Setser, Brad W. and S.T.W. (2019). Shadow FX intervention in Taiwan: Solving a USD 100+ bn enigma. Council on Foreign Relations.
Vasicek, O. (1977). An equilibrium characterization of the term structure. Journal of financial economics, 5(2), 177-188.
Yang, S. Y., Hwang, Y. W., & Chang, S. C. B. (2012). The bankruptcy cost of the life insurance industry under regulatory forbearance: An embedded option approach. North American Actuarial Journal, 16(4), 513-523.
(二) 網路資料
Federal Reserve Economic Data, Retrieved Jan 15 2021, from: https://fred.stlouisfed.org |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
風險管理與保險學系
108358009 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108358009 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| DOI: | 10.6814/NCCU202100403 |
| Appears in Collections: | [風險管理與保險學系] 學位論文
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