政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/134225

政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/134225

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政大機構典藏 > 社會科學學院 > 應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程 (IMES) > 學位論文 > Item 140.119/134225

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題名:	中美貿易戰下臺灣航空貨運的貿易偏轉及創造效應 Trade Deflection and Creation Effects in Taiwanese Air Freight under the U.S.-China Trade War
作者:	丁冠銓 Ting, Kuan-Chuan
貢獻者:	彭喜樞 Peng, Shi-Shu 丁冠銓 Ting, Kuan-Chuan
關鍵詞:	中美貿易戰航空貨運貿易偏轉貿易創造台灣 U.S.-China trade war air freight trade deflection trade creation Taiwan
日期:	2021
上傳時間:	2021-03-02 15:01:36 (UTC+8)
摘要:	在中美的相互競爭及保護主義的興起下，美國藉由數次的貿易清單對於自中國進口的貨物加徵額外關稅，進而形成了中美貿易戰，同時影響著國際貿易。為了研究台灣是否因為中美貿易戰，而在自中國進口及出口至美國的航空貨運貿易中，有貿易偏轉及創造效應，本研究使用了最小平方法及固定效應之回歸模型，針對116個月且38個不同種類貨物的航空貨運貿易量及貿易值資料進行分析。除此之外，我也加入了主要貨物特定效果與時間趨勢的交互項；以及，動態效果與超前效果的虛擬變數，作為穩健性檢驗。分析後我發現，第一次貿易清單的施行，的確在由中國至台灣的航空貨運進口中造成了貿易偏轉的效應。而就貿易創造效應而言，10%額外關稅的第三清單以及第四清單中A部分貨物的實施，也使航空貨運的出口量及值顯著增加。由此可見，中美貿易戰在台灣自中國的航空貨運進口中，造成了貿易偏轉效應；同時，也使台灣航空貨運對美國出口量及值的增長，即發生了貿易創造效應。 With the rise of protectionism and competition, the U.S.-China trade war affected the international trade through several implementations of tariffs lists conducted by the U.S. The research aims to study whether the effects of trade deflection and creation take place in Taiwanese air freight trade under the trade war, in terms of volume and value. In this study, the OLS and the fixed effect models are used to investigate the panel data, covering 116 months with 38 air freight categories. For the robustness check, I estimate the specific effect of the five main categories and the category specific time trend effect of each air freight category by including interaction terms. Dynamic effect and leading effect are also considered with dummy variables. I find that trade deflection from China is observed when the first tariffs list takes effect. Also, the implementation of the third tariffs list with 10% tariffs rates and part A of the fourth tariffs list increase Taiwanese air freight export volume and value. In conclusion, the U.S.-China trade war results in a significant trade deflection effect on the imports from China to Taiwan in the beginning. On the other hand, for trade creation effect, tariffs action positively affects Taiwanese air freight exports volume and value.
參考文獻:	[1]. Amiti, M., Redding, S. J., & Weinstein, D. E. (2019). The Impact of the 2018 Tariffs on Prices and Welfare. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 33(4), 187-210. doi:10.2307/26796842 [2]. Baltagi, B. H. (2005). Econometric analysis of panel data / Badi H. Baltagi (3rd ed. ed.). Chichester, West Sussex, England ;: J. Wiley & Sons. [3]. Bown, C. P., & Crowley, M. A. (2007). Trade deflection and trade depression. Journal of international economics, 72(1), 176-201. doi:10.1016/j.jinteco.2006.09.005 [4]. Geloso Grosso, M., & Shepherd, B. (2011). Air cargo transport in APEC: Regulation and effects on merchandise trade. Journal of Asian Economics, 22(3), 203-212. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2011.02.004 [5]. Giles, D. E. (2011). Interpreting dummy variables in semi-logarithmic regression models: Exact distributional results. University of Victoria Department of Economics Working Paper EWP, 1101, 1-24. [6]. Industry High Level Group (IHLG). (2019). Aviation Benefits Report 2019. Retrieved from https://www.icao.int/sustainability/Documents/AVIATION-BENEFITS-2019-web.pdf [7]. International Air Transportation Association (IATA). (2018). How would a global trade war affect aviation? Retrieved from https://www.iata.org/contentassets/59f6c514672d4900b4d30895d8170f4f/trade20wars20note.pdf [8]. Kennedy, P. E. (1981). Estimation with Correctly Interpreted Dummy Variables in Semilogarithmic Equations. The American economic review, 71(4), 801-801. [9]. Nicita , A. (2019). Trade and trade diversion effects of United States tariffs on China. UNCTAD Research Paper No. 37. [10]. Office of the United States Trade Representative. China Section 301-Tariff Actions and Exclusion Process. Retrieved from https://ustr.gov/index.php/issue-areas/enforcement/section-301-investigations/tariff-actions [11]. ‪Shibata, H. (1967). The Theory of Economic Unions: A Comparative Analysis of Customs Unions, In C. S. Shoup (Eds.). Fiscal Harmonization in Common Markets, Volume I:Theory, 145-264. ‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬ [12]. Skoglund, L. (2018). Evidence of Trade Deflection: Investigating the Impact of US Antidumping on EU Imports. Retrieved from [13]. Steinbock, D. (2019). U.S.-China Trade War and Its Global Impacts. China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies, 04(04), 515-542. doi:10.1142/s2377740018500318 [14]. Taoyuan International Airport Corporation. (2018). The analysis of the air freight competitivity and development strategy planning for Taoyuan International Airport. Retrieved from https://www.taoyuanairport.com.tw/upload/cont_att/173696b1-d951-4625-a521-873dcb9061a6.pdf [15]. Tu, X., Du, Y., Lu, Y., & Lou, C. (2020). US-China Trade War: Is Winter Coming for Global Trade? Journal of Chinese Political Science. doi:10.1007/s11366-020-09659-7 [16]. Wooldridge, J. M. (2016). Introductory econometrics : a modern approach / Jeffrey M. Wooldridge (Sixth edition. ed.). Boston: Cengage Learning. [17]. Yang, S., & Martinez-Zarzoso, I. (2014). A panel data analysis of trade creation and trade diversion effects: The case of ASEAN–China Free Trade Area. China Economic Review, 29, 138-151. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2014.04.002
描述:	碩士國立政治大學應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES) 107266003
資料來源:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107266003
資料類型:	thesis
DOI:	10.6814/NCCU202100196
顯示於類別:	[應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程 (IMES)] 學位論文

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