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| Title: | 應用實質選擇權評估畸零地價值
The Application of Real Option for the Valuation of Deformed Land |
| Authors: | 柴又瑄
Tsai, Yu-Hsuan |
| Contributors: | 林左裕
Lin, Tso-Yu
柴又瑄
Tsai, Yu-Hsuan |
| Keywords: | 畸零地
實質選擇權
模擬分析
土地合併
合併時機
拿翹行為
Deformed land
Real Option
Simulation analysis
Land assembly
Assembly timing
Holdout |
| Date: | 2020 |
| Issue Date: | 2021-03-02 14:44:21 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 畸零地係土地合併開發時會遇到的問題之一，社會大眾對於畸零地地主的拿翹行為亦不陌生。過往文獻多朝都市計畫和法律制度方面來探討畸零地，較少以投資分析之角度研究畸零地價值，故本研究希望藉由實質選擇權之概念，探討畸零地地主和鄰地開發商對於畸零地價值之認知，透過建立隱含選擇權價值之畸零地評價模型，分析模擬個案不同情境下之合併決策，並藉由探討市場因素變動下對於選擇權價值、畸零地價值和合併時機之影響，來解釋在面臨未來不確定性時，鄰地開發商之合併決策和畸零地地主之遞延決策，進而提供畸零地價值評估上一個新的考量因素，以期增加雙方對於畸零地價值之共識，並從選擇權價值和遞延成本之角度，提供畸零地地主拿翹行為之解套方法。
透過模擬分析之結果發現，考慮遞延成本後，並非遞延合併時機越久，畸零地價值越高，而是存在最適遞延期間，且地價波動率、房價成長率與選擇權價值、畸零地價值和合併時機呈現正向關係；與地價稅或利息則為負向關係，符合理論預期。然而，拿翹程度越高，雖選擇權價值、畸零地價值越高，但合併時機卻越晚越不利。此外，目前之房價水準對於合併時機則沒有明顯的影響。
Deformed land and holdout are the problems of land assembly. By reviewing past literature, most of discussions about deformed land were focus on the aspect of urban planning and legislation, however, there is no research on analyzing the value of deformed land in view of investment decision. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to discuss the cognition of deformed land value for landlord and developer by applying the concept of real option, and to analyze the assembly decision making in different situations by establishing deformed land value model and imitated case. In addition, this study discusses the impact of market factors change on real option value, deformed land value and assembly timing, and hope to provide a new consideration for evaluating deformed land, reach a consensus and suggest a solution of holdout problem in view of real option and deferral cost.
According to simulation analysis, there are several outcomes as followed. First of all, when considering deferral cost, it isn’t the longer the deferral period, the higher the deformed land value, but exist an appropriate deferral period. Secondly, land price volatility and housing price growth rate have a positive impact on real option value, deformed land value and assembly timing, while land tax and interest have a negative impact, but they are all in line with theoretical expectation; however, holdout level has a negative impact on assembly timing, which is different from theoretical expectation. Besides, housing price level has no significant impact on assembly timing. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
地政學系
107257031 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107257031 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| DOI: | 10.6814/NCCU202100240 |
| Appears in Collections: | [地政學系] 學位論文
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