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| Title: | 生育率變遷對臺灣人口年齡結構與家庭組成的影響
The Effects of Fertility Decline on Age Structure and Family Configuration in Taiwan |
| Authors: | 楊琇宇
Yang, Hsiu-Yu |
| Contributors: | 陳信木
Chen, Hsin-Mu
楊琇宇
Yang, Hsiu-Yu |
| Keywords: | 生育率變遷
穩定人口
胎次模擬
家庭構成
步調效果
Fertility Decline
Stable Population
Parity Simulation
Family Configuration
Tempo Effect |
| Date: | 2020 |
| Issue Date: | 2021-02-01 14:19:15 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本文以臺灣過去70多年來的生育率變遷為背景，援引形式人口學模擬工具，試圖描繪出劇烈生育率變遷帶來的鉅觀與微觀影響。質言之，本文首先以Lotka「穩定人口理論」描繪過去臺灣歷年生育率對臺灣年齡結構、人口加倍時間、淨繁殖率等帶來的影響，屬於鉅觀角度的分析。接著，本文再以「胎次模擬」途徑呈現臺灣育齡女性歷年的時期生育資訊，包含胎次分佈、胎次別年齡別生育率等，並據此延伸至「原生核心家庭」結構比重的探討。最後，本文也檢視所用來模擬的基礎資料——時期生育率的限制，探討生育率的步調效果，並強調觀察年輪生育率的重要性。同時指出過去30年生育率逐年下滑，似乎已與步調推遲無關，生育率止跌回升的可能性並不大。
This study examines the effects of fertility decline in the past 70 years on both population structure and family configuration in Taiwan. Two demographic models are applied in the study: Lotka’s stable population model and the parity simulation model. The author applies the stable population model to explore the impact of fertility change on the macro level of population, where age composition, population growth rate, and net reproduction rate of a stable population are demonstrated. Then, parity simulation model is applied to assess the parity distribution and the period age-parity specific fertility rate in Taiwan. The change of family configuration due to fertility change is also discussed in this study. Lastly, the author examines the tempo effect of fertility change in the past 3 decades and concludes that the fertility rate in Taiwan is unlikely to recover to its former level. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
社會學系
108254003 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108254003 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| DOI: | 10.6814/NCCU202100082 |
| Appears in Collections: | [社會學系] 學位論文
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